What Are India's Possible Choices of Multi-Role and Stealth Fighter Jet Combinations? An Analysis of Indigenous and Foreign Options

The Indian Air Force (IAF) is at a critical juncture in its modernization efforts, seeking to replace its aging aircraft in response to evolving regional security challenges and advancements in military technology.

India's strategy involves a combination of domestic development and international collaborations, leading to several potential scenarios for acquiring new fighter jets.

These scenarios primarily focus on the Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) program, aiming to procure 114 new jets, and the development of fifth-generation stealth capabilities.

Four Key Scenarios​

Four main scenarios have been presented, outlining possible combinations of aircraft for the IAF:

Scenario 1: Continued French Partnership​

• MRFA: 114 additional Dassault Rafale jets.
• 5th-Generation: Indigenous Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA).

In this scenario, India reinforces its existing relationship with France. The IAF already operates 36 Rafale jets, delivered by 2022, and this option would add 114 more.

The Rafale is a 4.5-generation fighter known for its versatility in air superiority, ground attack, and nuclear deterrence roles. This path offers operational continuity and leverages existing infrastructure.

For stealth capabilities, India would rely solely on the AMCA, a domestically developed 5th-generation fighter being developed by the DRDO. The AMCA, slated for service entry in the 2030s, is a key part of India's "Make in India" initiative, but faces potential risks associated with development timelines and technological hurdles.

Advantages: Strengthens ties with France, avoids reliance on the United States, and promotes self-reliance in defence production.

Disadvantages: Delays in achieving significant stealth capabilities until the AMCA is operational, and potentially higher costs for additional Rafale units.

Scenario 2: American Multi-Role, Indian Stealth​

• MRFA: 114 Boeing F-15EX Eagle II jets.
• 5th-Generation: Indigenous AMCA.

This scenario sees India choosing the F-15EX, a 4.5-generation heavy fighter from the United States, for its MRFA requirement. The F-15EX boasts advanced avionics, a significant payload capacity, and long-range strike capabilities.

This choice would complement the IAF's existing Su-30 MKI fleet and improve interoperability with the United States and other Quad partners (Japan and Australia).

The 5th-generation component remains the domestically developed AMCA. This approach balances near-term operational needs with long-term strategic autonomy, although integrating U.S. systems might introduce complexities into India's diverse supply chains.

Advantages: Improves defence cooperation with the United States and provides a powerful non-stealth platform relatively quickly.

Disadvantages: Offers no immediate stealth solution, and the F-15EX lacks the operational familiarity that the IAF has with the Rafale.

Scenario 3: Only Fifth-Generation Stealth Fighters​

• 5th-Generation 1: Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II.
• 5th-Generation 2: Indigenous AMCA.

This option represents a significant shift, with India potentially abandoning the MRFA program altogether.

The focus would be on acquiring fifth-generation stealth fighters, including the U.S. F-35, known for its advanced stealth, sensor fusion, and network-centric warfare capabilities.

This, combined with the AMCA, would create a two-tiered 5th-generation fleet: the F-35 for immediate deployment and the AMCA as a future indigenous mainstay.

However, canceling the MRFA program could create a shortfall in the IAF's overall squadron strength, which currently stands at 31 squadrons compared to the sanctioned strength of 42.

Advantages: Rapidly achieves stealth dominance, providing a counter to China's J-20 and Pakistan’s evolving fighter capabilities.

Disadvantages: The F-35 is expensive and complex to maintain, and delays in the AMCA program could strain resources and operational readiness.

Scenario 4: Comprehensive American Integration with Indeginious AMCA​

• MRFA: 114 F-15EX jets.
• 5th-Generation 1: F-35.
• 5th-Generation 2: AMCA.

The most ambitious scenario involves procuring both the F-15EX for the MRFA requirement and the F-35 for immediate stealth capabilities. The AMCA would remain the long-term goal for indigenous stealth technology.

This approach would maximize both immediate and future capabilities, while also strengthening geopolitical ties with the United States.

However, it poses significant financial and logistical challenges, as India would need to support two advanced U.S. platforms in addition to its already diverse fleet, including Su-30s, MiGs, Rafales, and Tejas aircraft.

Advantages: Provides a comprehensive solution with both immediate and long-term capabilities and solidifies the Quad partnership.

Disadvantages: Presents a substantial budgetary burden, increases dependence on U.S. spare parts and software, and could potentially delay the AMCA program.

Beyond the Four Scenarios: Exploring Other Possibilities​

The four scenarios outlined above represent the most prominent possibilities, but other options exist, influenced by factors like cost, geopolitical considerations, and the pace of technological development:

• Renewed Russian Option: India could revisit its long-standing relationship with Russia, potentially selecting the Su-35 or MiG-35 for the MRFA and the Su-57 (though its stealth capabilities are debated) as a 5th-generation option, alongside the AMCA. However, sanctions against Russia could complicate this approach.
• European and U.S. Hybrid: A combination of European fighters (Rafale or Eurofighter Typhoon) for the MRFA, coupled with the U.S. F-35 and the AMCA, could diversify India's suppliers and expedite stealth capabilities.
• Fully Indigenous Approach: A more domestically focused strategy could prioritize the Tejas Mk2 (a 4.5-generation fighter expected around 2027) over foreign MRFA imports, relying entirely on the AMCA for stealth. This would eliminate reliance on foreign suppliers but carries risks related to production timelines and capability gaps compared to adversaries.

Ultimately, India's decision will involve a complex balancing act between operational needs, budgetary constraints, strategic partnerships, and the pursuit of self-reliance in defence technology.

The final choice will significantly shape the future of the Indian Air Force and its ability to project power in the region.

 

[Anant]

Why not these 2 scenarios?

F-15EX + Su-57 + AMCA

F-35A + Su-57 + AMCA

Getting both the F-35 and the Su-57 isn't going to happen. Not in the present geopolitical scenario. Once (and if) we buy either type, the other is practically locked out. It is one or the other or neither.

 

[Anant]

Out of all the scenarios, Scenario 4 is more likely.

Scenario 1 is highly unlikely given the military's interest in acquiring 5th gen jets. Also, Rafale is extremely expensive for a 4th gen. We can't afford to buy 110 jets with the budget and separately buy 5th gen jets. Also, Dassault themselves said that they can't make more than 12 Rafales/year if made in India; the deliveries will end only in 2040, which is ridiculous given the urgency. Instead of Rafale, it could be EF Typhoon or Gripen-E.
The US might not like this due to the trade deficit with GOI.

Scenario 2
Can happen, but again, can't afford 114 F15s. Also, it's a duplication of SU-30. Wonder if IAF will buy them. If this has to happen, it will be either 114 F21s or a combination of 36 F15s and 74 F16 Block 70/72/F21s and help for AMCA. We will still buy 36 plus SU-57s to pacify Russia. Wonder if IAF would go for F16/F21.

Scenario 3
It is not possible at all as the US said it clearly that buying one of their 4th gen jets first is the path to F-35.

Scenario 4
This is what the US wants us to do: buying F21 -> F35 -> Help with AMCA.

In the other scenarios, only a straight purchase of SU-57/SU-75 and making Tejas MK2 is possible.

All well and good, but I disagree with your point about buying both the F-35 and the Su-57 under Scenario 2. Under the present geopolitical scenario, that kind of purchase is not going to materialise. It will be one or the other or neither.

 

[Anant]

• Abandon MRCA.
• Induct 2 more Rafale squadrons.
• Buy 2 to 4 F-35 squadrons directly.
• For all other needs, just focus on getting Tejas Mk-1A and Mk-2 ready on time.
• Just concentrate more on upgrading the MKI fleet.
• Henceforth, spend all future monies on 5th gen birds like AMCA and UCAVs.

Boss, we aren't getting the F-35 directly. Getting those jets will require some form of massive (few tens of billions of dollars worth) purchase from the US first. I have a feeling the US would be forcing their jets through in MRFA with the F-35 carrot.

 

[Anant]

The last option of Tejas 2 and AMCA is the best option. Period.

Yes, but it is also the least practical. The Tejas Mk 2 is atlesst 7-8 years from operationalisation, and AMCA is atleast a decade away. If we wait that long, the IAF will atrophy down to a critically low strength level, and building it up would be very long and painful.

 

[Kira]

Boss, we aren't getting the F-35 directly. Getting those jets will require some form of massive (few tens of billions of dollars worth) purchase from the US first. I have a feeling the US would be forcing their jets through in MRFA with the F-35 carrot.

Let's see, but the US can simply sell the F-35 as an off-the-shelf deal, at least till Trump is in office for 4 years.
F-15 is itself a repeat of Rafale and is too similar to the MKI, and F-16/21 is just too old and again more similar to the upcoming Tejas MK-2, and F-18 was always a tough sell given that it's primarily a naval jet and now passed over by the IN.
So, even if the US is offering the F-35 as a carrot today, it's very unlikely that New Delhi today has the desire or monies to spend on another 4th Gen jet.

 

[Somebody]

All well and good, but I disagree with your point about buying both the F-35 and the Su-57 under Scenario 2. Under the present geopolitical scenario, that kind of purchase is not going to materialise. It will be one or the other or neither.

If not SU-57 they will buy SU-75 or MIG-41, but SU-57 is Russia’s flagship product that they would like GOI to buy for future marketing.

 

[The_rED_dEVIL]

LOL, a maintenance nightmare in the making.

IAF has no options more perfect than Tejas Mk1/1A (220) + Tejas Mk2 (~120) + AMCA (125+114). Makes it 28 squadrons (=10+6+12) excluding 13 Su-30MKI, 2 Rafale squadrons. AMCA production boost only possible by moving to private industries. MoD and ADA strongly support it.

F-35s may be bought instead of a few units of AMCA. But as you said... it would be a huge operational challenge.
An India Today article covers it -

Opinion: Is F-35 Lightning the right choice for India?

The single-engine F-35, from an Indian perspective, has to penetrate contested airspaces of our adversaries in a standalone mode, and cannot be part of any integrated offensive mission package of IAF’s mainstay platforms.

www.indiatoday.in

Su-57 is a long-gone option; India opted out of it long ago, and everyone knows of Russia's delivery challenges now (due to the war).

 

[Santosh munde advocate]

American jets come with a lot of conditions and restrictions, so it is better to avoid them. The US may sanction us, but national security cannot be compromised. Russian jets may be inferior, but they give a lot of freedom to operate.

How can the Eurofighter Typhoon be an option? It would be a logistical nightmare. Europeans, like Americans, impose a lot of conditions and restrictions. They may withdraw support at the time of war. Remember 1965, 1971, and 1999.

 

[kunitesh]

Make a choice quickly between Rafale and Su57 based on who transfers more tech, is more cost effective and has expedited delivery timelines. Rafale and Su57 are comparable in performance and stealth but price for SU57 and it's lifecycle cost will be much less and easier to setup production in India.Indian engineers can add lot of punch by integrating cutting edge weapons and avionics in SU57 MKI version . This will ensure secure skys and adequate deterrent for Pakistan and China until AMCA and Tejas MK2 join IAF in high numbers.
Relying on US for your key weapons platform is never a good idea as they hit you with sanctions anytime or delay delivery like it happened for GE engines derailing the Tejas MK2A delivery. F35 will be very expensive to maintain and come with negligible tech transfer.

 

[Roberto]

How about 2-3 sq of SU-57, use 117 engine in MKI upgrade (and possibly for MK2), maybe 2 sq of MIG-35 or SU-75?

 

[sishir]

Best solution F15FX for 114.
2 squadron of F 35
Rest our own developed 5th generation aircraft by 2030 if DRDO/HAL/ARDO Can do it. If not they must say it loud and clear.
For Navy P2 posidean aircraft min 3.
One more aircraft carrier.
We must try and get some heavy bombers within our own construction or buy it out. Max 6 to 12 birds.
Apache min 12 more.
Chinook 6 more
Medium transport from Airbus .
Long list for next 5 to 10 years to run till 2050.
Money from Ambabi/Adani/Birlas/ All filmstar.

 

[Calvin]

Let's see, but the US can simply sell the F-35 as an off-the-shelf deal, at least till Trump is in office for 4 years.
F-15 is itself a repeat of Rafale and is too similar to the MKI, and F-16/21 is just too old and again more similar to the upcoming Tejas MK-2, and F-18 was always a tough sell given that it's primarily a naval jet and now passed over by the IN.
So, even if the US is offering the F-35 as a carrot today, it's very unlikely that New Delhi today has the desire or monies to spend on another 4th Gen jet.

The F-15EX is not the same as the Rafale. The USAF is quite confident that these aircraft can hold their own against other "claimed" 5th gen aircraft. Think, if they are good enough for the Israeli Air Force to order (and they already have 5th gen aircraft in the form of the customized F-35), then why would the F-15EX not be good for the IAF?

 

[Chand Ashok]

Firstly, not just the IAF, any airforce needs both 4.5 gen & 5th gen fighters that complement each other, & one can't substitute for the other. 5th gen fighters are limited by limited weapons-carrying capacity in internal weapons bays to maintain stealth; hence, they can be used for high-value strike missions. However, 4.5 gen fighters have high weapons-carrying capacity and are deployed in both strike & interception missions. Hence, both the USAF & Chinese continue to deploy advanced 4.5 gen fighters & look to deploy 5th gen fighters for critical missions like taking out an opponent's air defence assets.

In view of this, the IAF should have a two-pronged strategy of acquisition of advanced 4.5 gen & 5th gen fighters, both for immediate/timely deployment & an indigenous option in the longer run. However, the strategy needs to be balanced to be optimized for budgetary constraints. The best option works out as below:

Short-term deployment 4.5 gen fighter​

1. 36 Rafale acquisitions, but in limited numbers under a follow-on contract option that will lead to a total of 72 Rafales. Cancellation of MMRCA-2 since timelines of delivery can't precede Tejas Mk-2 delivery by much.
2. Upgrading Tejas Mk-1A with advanced AESA radars, IRST sensors & avionics developed for the Tejas Mk-2/AMCA.Longer-term 4.5 gen fighter
3. Induction of 10 squadrons of Tejas Mk-2
4. Upgrading Su-30 MKI to Super Sukhoi.

Short-term 5th gen fighter​

Induction of 72-90 F-35 Lightnings since AMCA realistic induction timelines may exceed 2040. Hence, fund savings from the cancellation of MMRCA-2 for 114 fighters must be diverted to make up the gap & proceeding to prevent the Pakistanis from gaining an advantage with the acquisition of the J-35 & KAAN.

Longer-term 5th gen fighter​

Development of AMCA Mk-2 as a 6th gen fighter with a proposed high-thrust 110kN engine in foreign collaboration and induction of 20-25 squadrons to match up to the Chinese, who aim to deploy 1000 5th gen fighters by 2040.