Analysis Why India Choose Costly German Submarines Under P-75(I) While Having Capability to Pursue Fully Indigenous P-76 Development, Asks Defence Experts

India's pursuit of a stronger underwater naval presence is proceeding along two seemingly contradictory paths, raising questions within the defense community.

While the DRDO prepares to seek government approval for Project-76, an ambitious plan to build six indigenously designed diesel-electric submarines, India is simultaneously moving forward with the procurement of six German submarines under Project-75(I).

This dual approach has sparked debate about the necessity of foreign collaboration when India purportedly possesses the domestic capability to develop its own submarines more rapidly.

Project-76 embodies the DRDO's ambition for a completely indigenous submarine fleet, drawing upon the experience gained from the Arihant-class nuclear submarine program and the Scorpene submarine project (Project-75) in collaboration with France.

The program, awaiting approval from the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) – expected as early as April 2025, according to sources cited by The Hindu – envisions the construction of six diesel-electric submarines with a remarkable 90-95% indigenous content. This includes domestically produced weapons, sonars, combat systems, and DRDO's own phosphoric acid-based Air-Independent Propulsion (AIP) system.

These submarines, estimated to displace between 3,000 and 4,000 tons, are planned to incorporate advanced features like lithium-ion batteries, pump-jet propulsion, and potentially vertical launch systems (VLS) for cruise missiles. The design phase is slated for completion by 2028, with the first submarine expected to be operational by 2033-34.

The DRDO's confidence stems from its successful development of an AIP system, which allows submarines to stay submerged for extended periods. This technology, with a scalable power output of 20 kW per fuel cell, is comparable to international standards and surpasses the Scorpene's underwater endurance of 21 days.

The DRDO's collaboration with the Indian Navy's Warship Design Bureau (WDB) and the significant localization achieved during Project-75 (around 70%) further bolster the belief that India can independently build a world-class submarine. A DRDO official, highlighting the 90% indigenous content of the Arihant, stated in January 2025 that building conventional submarines is well within India's capabilities.

Concurrently, Project-75(I), a substantial deal valued at approximately ₹70,000 crore (about $8.4 billion USD), for six AIP-equipped submarines has also reached a significant milestone. Reports, including social media posts on X (formerly Twitter) on February 24, 2025, indicate that the CCS has approved the joint construction of these submarines by Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Limited (MDL) and Germany's Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKMS).

These submarines will be based on the German HDW Class 212/214 design. TKMS's AIP system underwent field evaluation trials in March 2024, and contract negotiations are ongoing. Deliveries are projected to commence around 2030-31.

The agreement, originating from a government-to-government understanding reached during German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's visit to India in 2023, emphasizes technology transfer and local manufacturing, aligning with India's "Make in India" initiative.

The simultaneous pursuit of Project-76 and Project-75(I) has perplexed defence analysts. The capabilities offered by the German submarines – AIP technology, stealth features, and missile-launching capabilities – are areas where the DRDO claims to have already achieved significant progress.

Critics point to India's successful track record in submarine construction, including the six Scorpene submarines built with Naval Group, four Shishumar-class submarines with HDW, and the indigenous Arihant nuclear submarine, as evidence of its ability to proceed independently with Project-76. A defense analyst expressed this sentiment on X in February 2025, questioning the need for German submarines when India could potentially build better ones domestically and faster.

The Indian Navy and the Ministry of Defence (MoD) justify the dual approach by emphasizing the urgency of bolstering India's submarine fleet. Currently, the Indian Navy operates only 17 conventional submarines, with a significant portion being older models. Due to maintenance schedules, only about half of these are operational at any given time. This number falls short of the estimated requirement of 24 submarines needed to address the growing naval capabilities of China (which fields more than 40 diesel electric submarines) and Pakistan.

Project-75(I), with its proven design, offers a quicker means of increasing the fleet size, leveraging MDL's shipbuilding expertise to ensure delivery by the early 2030s.

While Project-76, while promising, is still in the preliminary design stages and is not expected to deliver its first submarine until 2033-34, a timeline deemed too long to meet immediate operational needs.

Financial considerations and risk mitigation also play a role. Project-75(I)'s ₹70,000 crore budget incorporates German expertise to minimize potential development challenges, while Project-76's eight-year development timeline carries inherent uncertainties.

A retired commodore, speaking to Business Standard in 2024, defended the dual strategy as a safeguard against potential delays or setbacks in the indigenous program.

There are also suggestions, circulating on social media, that TKMS might share design knowledge that could benefit Project-76, a claim supported by a January 2025 report indicating that Germany's new submarine design could contribute to India's indigenous efforts.

Despite these justifications, skepticism remains. Some view Project-75(I) as an expensive and redundant undertaking, estimating the cost per submarine at around ₹11,000 crore. They argue that focusing resources on Project-76 could potentially lead to economies of scale, especially if the Navy's vision, articulated by a Navy Chief in 2023, of a 12-boat fleet is realized.

Critics contend that the German deal contradicts the principles of "Atmanirbhar Bharat" by continuing dependence on foreign original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). They point to the DRDO's AIP system, already scheduled for integration into existing Scorpene submarines during refits in 2025, and MDL's demonstrated submarine construction capabilities, as further evidence of India's capacity for self-sufficiency.

The strategic rationale behind Project-75(I) also fuels debate. Some speculate that the deal serves a geopolitical purpose, strengthening Indo-German relations as a counterweight to China. Others suggest it might be a way to maintain MDL's workload while Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) focuses on fighter jet production.

Another perspective attributes the continued progress of Project-75(I), which has its origins in a 1999 proposal, to bureaucratic processes, even as Project-76 offers a more self-reliant path. This situation has drawn comparisons to the long-delayed Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) program for 114 fighter jets, with one commenter describing it as "MRFA all over again—dithering delays self-reliance."

 

[Somnath Sinhababu]

India needs both... China has more than 65 submarines right now... P75I is an urgent requirement, and P76 is necessary... GOI should not delay anymore... GOI should increase its defence budget... Unfortunately, right now, we have to spend money for both foreign and indigenous programmes; that means we have to buy and build simultaneously... It's not an option.

 

[parimal vaikuthray Pandya]

This lengthy article don't describe final narrative what you want to say

 

[Anant]

Both will be needed. As it is, while Project 76 is starting off, we will have some sort of teething troubles down the line. Moreover, we still don't know if the 8-year timeline will actually hold, since any number of things can take longer than expected.

No, a better idea is to move ahead with the 6 P-76 boats as well as the 6 P-75I boats. Next, once the designs and technologies for P-75I are finalised, some learnings from those could be implemented in P-76 Batch 2, which can make up another 6-9 SSKs.

 

[MSN]

It shows the armed forces don't have the dependency and professional trust over the DRDO. The reason is that DRDO consistently neglects to focus on armament developments, manufacturing processes, quality, and maintenance within a specific time frame. God only knows why those people do this when they have a complete monopoly in the sector.
DRDO is the white elephant for GoI and is entirely managed by an unprofessional bureaucratic system that functions tangentially and in a lethargic way. This hampers the capabilities of top-class Indian techies available in the country.
Just look at how ISRO functions!

 

[Baiju Bhaskaran]

Both are needed. Instead it would be better if the Project 76 is extended upto 10 Submarine and additional Scorpene upto 6 submarines instead of 3.

 

[Anant]

Both are needed. Instead it would be better if the Project 76 is extended upto 10 Submarine and additional Scorpene upto 6 submarines instead of 3.

The present proposal is to have P-76 extended to 12 boats in two batches, and leave P-75I at six. If absolutely needed, a further three P-75I boats may be taken up as an option if P-76 gets significantly delayed for some reason.

 

[Dredd]

Both will be needed. As it is, while Project 76 is starting off, we will have some sort of teething troubles down the line. Moreover, we still don't know if the 8-year timeline will actually hold, since any number of things can take longer than expected.

No, a better idea is to move ahead with the 6 P-76 boats as well as the 6 P-75I boats. Next, once the designs and technologies for P-75I are finalised, some learnings from those could be implemented in P-76 Batch 2, which can make up another 6-9 SSKs.

In any case, 6 nos. doesn't make sense. It doesn't give us the required ToT, nor does it give us the benefit of economies of scale. If the Indian Navy is confident with the DRDO P76 plan, then go with 18 submarines with incremental upgrades every 6th submarine. If not, then go for 15 nos. P75I and let local R&D focus on SSNs only. We can get IPR and the complete blueprint of the 214 if procured in such numbers.

Let's go big with every procurement, like China. No more buffets of platforms.

 

[Sandeep]

It’s better to run both programs and share whatever technology we can use for our P76 submarine program. The other alternative is to just import 2-4 submarines from Germany and by the time we receive them we can start constructing P76 submarines and sort out any teething or bureaucratic issues or delays. This will reduce the overall P75I submarine acquisition cost as we won’t have to receive any ToT or allow any local manufacturing. This drives up the cost and it turns out to be more expensive than just importing it.

It’s absolutely essential that we start manufacturing the P76 submarines as it has very advanced technology and capabilities. This will strengthen our defence and increase our firepower and lethality which we need to counter Chinese submarines.

 

[kumar]

As Long as we get both know how and know why, P75I is good. If our WDB engineers are trained in both know how and know why then it is better. Anyways, we should have proper agreements in place for the same.

 

[GMR]

These analysts must realise that indegenisation is great, but can not compromise on current capability while waiting for a platform which is a decade away. 75I is meant to bridge the current gap, 76 is for future. Don't repeat after IAF, sleeping on MRFA while waiting for Tejas, result - squarden strength at 29 (minus MIG 21s)

 

[Mithu]

Actually 9 scorpene,6 or 9 german sub and six or 9 indigenous subs.
It adds upto 24 subs.
Plus with expertise indian companies will become large scale suppliers.

 

[Vivek M. R]

Heard in one of the defense YouTube channels that Indian going to sign a contract with France to get 3 more scorpene (Kalvary) class submarines are super (scorpene) Kalvary bigger in size that which were supplied to Brazil and cost per sub is around 10K crore but YouTube channel also mentioned drdo designed Indian AIP is not yet ready. Are we going to upgrade first lot of 6 subs one by one with drdo designed AIP this year?

 

[Anant]

In any case, 6 nos. doesn't make sense. It doesn't give us the required ToT, nor does it give us the benefit of economies of scale. If the Indian Navy is confident with the DRDO P76 plan, then go with 18 submarines with incremental upgrades every 6th submarine. If not, then go for 15 nos. P75I and let local R&D focus on SSNs only. We can get IPR and the complete blueprint of the 214 if procured in such numbers.

Let's go big with every procurement, like China. No more buffets of platforms.

Not necessarily. Even 6 submarines can get uou a lot of stuff, especially considering the fact that TKMS will be engaging Indian industry in the design of the submarines, and that they have already announced that the entire set of design drawings for the Type 214NG will be handed to India as well.

Moreover, to take a trip down memory lane, it was an order by Portugal and Greece that led to a redesign of the Type 209 (what was at the time called the Type 209NG) to eventually produce the Type 214. The Type 214NG could be the next design in that lineage, and considering their export success, I'd say the design will be quote good.

Oh, and South Korea got the full design and export rights for nine submarines.

 

[Dredd]

Not necessarily. Even 6 submarines can get uou a lot of stuff, especially considering the fact that TKMS will be engaging Indian industry in the design of the submarines, and that they have already announced that the entire set of design drawings for the Type 214NG will be handed to India as well.

Moreover, to take a trip down memory lane, it was an order by Portugal and Greece that led to a redesign of the Type 209 (what was at the time called the Type 209NG) to eventually produce the Type 214. The Type 214NG could be the next design in that lineage, and considering their export success, I'd say the design will be quote good.

Oh, and South Korea got the full design and export rights for nine submarines.

Still, you won't get the benefit of scale. Look at China, the USA, and Russia, and how they induct platforms in large numbers to mitigate the high costs. India should have gone with 18 Scorpenes in 3 batches from the start. Three platforms not only increase procurement costs but also maintenance, upgrade, and refit costs.