Amid China's 6th-Gen Leap, Former Mirage-2000 Pilot Issues a Stark Warning of a 10-Year IAF Vulnerability Against PLAAF

A distinguished veteran of the Indian Air Force (IAF) has issued a serious warning about a potential decade-long period where India could face a critical disadvantage in air power against China.

Sameer Joshi, a former Mirage-2000 pilot and Kargil War veteran, raised the alarm following the emergence of new images of China's prototype sixth-generation stealth fighter, reportedly named the J-50.

His analysis suggests a "window of ambiguity" until at least 2035, during which the IAF may be technologically outmatched by the People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF).

The Core of the Concern​

In a widely circulated social media post, Joshi cautioned that until India's indigenous fifth-generation Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) is inducted, the IAF might find itself relegated to a "Team B" status.

He explained that while India's upgraded fleet of 4.5-generation jets is formidable, it would face a superior adversary in China’s growing arsenal of fifth and sixth-generation aircraft.

Joshi, who now heads the defence technology firm NewSpace Research & Technologies, further warned that advanced stealth and long-range weapons could negate the natural defence offered by the Himalayan terrain, a long-standing strategic advantage for India.

China’s Rapid Aerospace Advancement​

The catalyst for this warning is the Shenyang J-50, a futuristic fighter prototype recently photographed undergoing tests in China.

This aircraft displays characteristics of a sixth-generation platform, including a tailless, blended-wing body for maximum stealth, advanced engine inlets, and capabilities for AI-driven autonomous flight.

These features are comparable to those in next-generation programs in the United States. This development comes as the PLAAF is already expanding its fleet of the J-20 'Mighty Dragon', its operational fifth-generation fighter, with estimates placing their numbers at over 300.

This combination of existing and future aircraft threatens to create a significant technological and numerical gap in the region's air power balance.

India's Current Modernisation and Future Plans​

The Indian Air Force is in the midst of a significant but transitional modernisation phase.

Its strength is being boosted by the indigenous Tejas Mk1A, additional Dassault Rafales, and a major upgrade program for the Su-30MKI fleet, which includes new radars and the integration of BrahMos supersonic missiles.

These platforms, armed with potent missiles like the European Meteor and the Indian Astra, are designed to ensure the IAF remains a powerful force.

However, Joshi's critique highlights that these are 4.5-generation enhancements, which may struggle to counter the advanced stealth and networked warfare capabilities of true fifth and sixth-generation opponents.

This is compounded by the IAF's current squadron numbers, which stand at around 31, well below the officially sanctioned strength of 42 required to meet a two-front challenge.

The AMCA: India’s Answer and Its Delays​

India's definitive counter to this emerging threat is the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA).

Developed by the Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA), the AMCA is envisioned as a cutting-edge stealth fighter equipped with supercruise (the ability to fly at supersonic speeds without afterburners), internal weapons bays, and potentially directed energy weapons.

This aircraft represents the "Team A" capability the IAF needs to restore technological parity.

However, the project's timeline remains a major concern.

Critical delays, particularly in finalizing a partnership for the co-development of a high-thrust jet engine, could push the AMCA's operational induction beyond the projected 2035 timeframe, creating the very "window of ambiguity" that Joshi warns about.

This period of uncertain deterrence could present a significant challenge to India's national security.

 

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[manivannan]

Rightly said. Fasttrack all works. Else china will lead with 6th gen stealth autonomous fighter. Ada work fast.

 

[emgee]

Networked warfare capabilities have nothing to do with the shape of an aircraft.
Take a Mirage 2000, a MiG-29 and a Tejas MK1 and let each pilot see what the others see. Let them all see what the stealthy loyal wingmen see. That's force multiplication.

 

[Aditya Khullar]

They invested heavily in R&D (and stealing tech from the US), and they are reaping its benefits. We just focus on stupid technology transfers and reverse engineering and barely any investment in R&D as compared to Europe, China, the US, or even Russia.

 

[SURESH RAO]

Something wrong in the J-10, J-35 and J-20 Counterparts in the above table.

4.5 gen fighter jet can be Counterpart for 4.5 gen fighter jet

4.5 gen fighter jet cannot be Counterpart for 5th Gen Fighter Jet

 

[Ronit@9977]

They had invested in R&D for long, which is paying them today. We can't match them in quantity today. We need to handle this stealth threat by finding effective ways to counter super stealth. Improvement in air defence network and counter stealth systems is the only way to keep this threat in check. The main capability that next-gen air defence systems need to have is defence against hypersonic projectiles (specifically hypersonic cruise missiles) and super stealthy objects.

 

[Biggu]

They invested heavily in R&D (and stealing tech from the US), and they are reaping its benefits. We just focus on stupid technology transfers and reverse engineering and barely any investment in R&D as compared to Europe, China, the US, or even Russia.

It's my personal opinion, but I think China's J-50 is not a 6th generation fighter jet. Like, they have no stealth maturity like US, no engine comparable to US. I highly doubt their sensors, and Chinese people like to lie a lot. So I don't think it is 6th-generation, to be honest (tbh).

 

[Kira]

The above plane looks so sleek and futuristic, the PRC has surely invested considerable sums in aviation R&D for decades to get to this.

 

[DB_NE_Guy]

Back in the early 1990s, China was already collecting debris of a Nighthawk stealth fighter shot down over Kosovo. This shows when it comes to R&D, China was far ahead of India. But the reality will be known only in battlefield combat.

 

[Prashant dwivedi]

Despite knowing everything, the government is holding up the MRFA deal. There are no guidelines to expedite the Tejas Mk2 rollout. The IAF is also helpless because it is not ready to develop the Sukhoi 30 MKI into a super Sukhoi. The government is moving at a snail's pace. There seems to be no future for the TEDBF program. Let's see when all this is completed.

 

[JustPassingByAgain]

Given the slow pace of modernisation and the many hurdles still to come in terms of engines, foreign relations etc. we should not put our eggs in 1 AMCA basket and hope for the best. It's time to think of asymmetric tactics as well as adaptations to strategy.

On the tactics, top should be scaling up electronic and human intelligence to have a real time picture of chinese deployments in Tibet, and satellite surveillance of the huge terrritory across multiple spectra to build an early warning posture to the extent possible. Close second is the development of infiltrate and strike drone capabilites of the sort deployed successfully by Ukraine against Russia even thousands of kilometres from the theatre.

On the strategy, the reactive approach of being attacked first before responding favoured by governments of all ideologies is not feasible against China. A doctrinal change to enable pre-emptive offensive action on the assessment of impending attack is required, along with the ecosystem of diplomatic and political cultural shift around this. Simultaneously, a strategic preparedness shift to a long duration defensive war fought primarily on the Indian side without nuclear escalation allows the stakes to move from short air battles (where tech is likely to be decisive) to a longer struggle of attrition, and signal our willingness to bog China down in a long damaging war in which they will be the aggressor.

These are approaches that the materially disadvantaged have used against stronger opponents for centuries. Updated for technology, the same should be our thinking now.

 

[Vijigishu ( विजिग्शु )]

Not 10, it's actually 20 years of window. Stop feeding delusion to public. By 2035, even final prototype will not be in public, forget about 10 year testing before actual induction and serial production.

Do they not read any news or just blabbering over a peg?

 

[Bhishma]

The real threat is those tailless UCAVs they showed. I'm not worried about J-20/J-35.

 

[CCPSmasher]

The difference between India and China is how much importance each country pays in basic R&D.

 

[Hari Sud]

Do not worry about China. All their airports in Tibet are at 4−5,000 ft altitude. These stealth fighters cannot take off with full load. They become vulnerable when refuelled immediately after take off. Moreover much of their airforce with newest fighters is busy on the eastern front against the South China sea.

 

[Dark knight]

The real threat is those tailless UCAVs they showed. I'm not worried about J-20/J-35.

Correct, drones and UCAVs are the future of aerial warfare. 5G will increasingly become vulnerable because their stealth advantage will be nullified by advanced radar, and on top of that, the less payload capacity they will have. In the future, these jets will only play a supporting role.

 

[jude]

Rightly said. Fasttrack all works. Else china will lead with 6th gen stealth autonomous fighter. Ada work fast.

Oh Pls China's mosquito killer is failing too. The engine noise of their stealth is much beyond stealth. All chinese tech should be taken in with bucket of salt. Anyhow combined defenses of India can take care of these issues and no one fighting a war with China as they don't fight any. They are good at posture. Historically they sent Zeng He an enunch with 30000 good force just to posture in the Indian Ocean in 14th century. All talk and no stuff.

 

[FROST]

As a lay man I feel all such advancement in aircraft upgradation finally rests with HAL / Bangalore in which Nehru's great grandson of Italian origin takes pride and "Kaboom" there ends the programme of advancement and also the tax payers money.