Can Pakistan's Fatah-II SRBM Really Defeat India's S-400? Experts Debate the Missile's True Capabilities

Pakistan has recently introduced the Fatah-II Short-Range Ballistic Missile (SRBM), positioning it as a direct counter to India's Russian-made S-400 "Triumf" air defence system. This move marks a significant development in the ongoing regional arms race.

The Fatah-II, first test-launched in December 2023 and further tested in May 2024, is presented by Pakistani officials as a weapon capable of penetrating modern air defenses and striking critical enemy targets.

The Fatah-II boasts a range of 400 kilometers, advanced avionics, and a unique flight path. It is designed to target key infrastructure and military assets, including bridges, military bases, communication centers, command and control hubs, and even air defence installations like the S-400 itself.

This development, as of early March 2025, highlights Pakistan's efforts to counter India's increasing defensive capabilities, leading to questions about the shifting balance of power in the South Asian region.

Developed by Pakistan's Global Industrial & Defence Solutions (GIDS), the Fatah-II is a significant upgrade from its predecessor, the Fatah-I, which had a range of 140 kilometers.

The Fatah-II combines extended reach with precision, reportedly having a Circular Error Probable (CEP) of under 10 meters. Pakistan's Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) states that the missile incorporates advanced avionics, a sophisticated navigation system using both inertial and satellite guidance, and a special flight trajectory to help it avoid interception. The Fatah-II is launched from a mobile system, making it difficult to detect and track by radar.

Pakistani military officials claim the Fatah-II was specifically designed to "challenge" advanced air defence systems like the S-400.

India began receiving the S-400 in 2021 as part of a $5.4 billion agreement with Russia. The S-400 is considered one of the most advanced surface-to-air missile systems globally, capable of engaging aircraft, cruise missiles, and ballistic threats at ranges from 40 to 400 kilometers and altitudes up to 30 kilometers.

Pakistan's strategy involves using the Fatah-II in saturation attacks – launching multiple missiles, along with drones and other munitions – to exploit any potential weaknesses in the S-400's defenses.

Beyond countering air defenses, the Fatah-II is intended as a precision strike weapon against high-value targets, even those with strong protection. These targets include:

• Bridges: To disrupt critical infrastructure and hinder troop and supply movements.
• Military Bases: To reduce the enemy's operational capabilities.
• Communication Facilities: To disrupt coordination and intelligence gathering.
• Command and Control Centers: To disrupt decision-making and create chaos on the battlefield.
• Air Defence System Locations: To directly attack S-400 batteries or their supporting radar systems, weakening India's defenses.

This targeting strategy is consistent with Pakistan's broader aim of strengthening its conventional deterrence, particularly in response to India's "Cold Start Doctrine," which focuses on rapid, multi-front incursions.

The Fatah-II's 400-kilometer range puts important Indian military installations within reach, including air bases in Punjab and Rajasthan, key bridges, and even mobile S-400 units near the Line of Control (LoC).

By incorporating the Fatah-II into its artillery, Pakistan aims to achieve precise, stand-off engagement capabilities, increasing the range and effectiveness of its conventional forces.

Pakistan's claim that the Fatah-II can overcome the S-400 is based on several technical aspects, but its actual effectiveness is debated. The missile's relatively flat trajectory and supersonic speed (estimated between Mach 4 and Mach 6) could shorten the reaction time for air defence systems. Its mobility, using truck-mounted launchers, makes it harder for Indian surveillance to locate and target preemptively.

The Fatah-II's relatively low cost compared to larger ballistic missiles also makes "barrage tactics" – overwhelming defenses with a large number of rockets – a viable option. This strategy has seen some success in other conflicts, such as in Ukraine.

However, the S-400's capabilities raise questions about Pakistan's claims. The S-400 has a detection range of up to 600 kilometers and can track and engage numerous targets simultaneously (up to 36, according to Russian specifications) using various missiles, including the 40N6E (400 km range) and 48N6E2 (designed for ballistic threats).

The system's Very High Frequency (VHF) radars, like the NEBO SVU, are specifically designed to detect low-flying, fast-moving objects, potentially negating the Fatah-II's flat trajectory advantage. Reports from Indian Air Force exercises suggest the S-400 has a high success rate against simulated enemy aircraft.

Military analysts believe the Fatah-II's success would likely depend on overwhelming the S-400 with a large number of projectiles, requiring coordination with cruise missiles, loitering munitions, and Fatah-I rockets.

However, India's multi-layered air defence system, which includes the indigenous Akash, Barak-8, and the upcoming Project Kusha systems, could potentially absorb such an attack, allowing the S-400 to focus on higher-priority threats.

The S-400's own mobility also complicates Pakistan's targeting strategy, as units can be moved to avoid pre-planned attacks.According to open source, The S-400 is also road-mobile, meaning it can change position, enhancing it survivability.

The introduction of the Fatah-II also carries the risk of escalating tensions. Its ability to target S-400 sites could lead to preemptive Indian strikes, particularly given the missile's proximity to the LoC when launched from certain areas.

India currently lacks a direct equivalent to the Fatah-II in terms of range, with its Pinaka rockets having a shorter range and longer-range systems like Pralay and BrahMos being more expensive for widespread deployment. This gap could accelerate the development of indigenous Indian systems, such as the proposed 300-km Maheshwarastra.

In conclusion, the Fatah-II SRBM represents Pakistan's attempt to counter India's S-400 advantage by providing a relatively low-cost, mobile, and precise weapon capable of threatening high-value targets.

While its technical characteristics present a challenge, the S-400's proven capabilities and India's layered defenses suggest that successfully penetrating Indian airspace is not guaranteed. The missile's real impact might be more psychological and strategic, forcing India to re-evaluate its air defence strategy and invest in countermeasures.

 

[saffronsword]

Any missile system can defeat the s 400 with a saturation strike.....more than the total missiles launchable by s 400 and other connected air defense systems......but you will burn out your inventory extremely rapidly.......
By the way ,I'm no specialist, but I think it's possible.....can anyone help me out on this......I hope I am proved wrong....

 

[P2S2]

Any missile system can defeat the s 400 with a saturation strike.....more than the total missiles launchable by s 400 and other connected air defense systems......but you will burn out your inventory extremely rapidly.......
By the way ,I'm no specialist, but I think it's possible.....can anyone help me out on this......I hope I am proved wrong....

It's an excellent product. India should create ways and means of financing excellent Desi technology. Global Industrial & Defence solutions could be funded through some Desi initiatives. India should encourage assimilation of all Desis. Present rivalries will disappear if faced with real enmity. India is the bright light for the region all the way past Africa. We have to be thankful that this self fighting fighting has created pools of excellence in our Desh. Voluntary supply of data and information should be the only requirement for funding proposals to the Indian Treasury. All Sarc registered entities should be supported. East West Germany type of unity would become the norm.

 

[Radha Ramanan]

They do have a point. Iran's S-300 missiles were taken out by the Israelis by air-launched ballistic missiles that could not be intercepted by the S-300 SAM system. Again, we saw that Iran's ballistic missiles hit the Israeli airforce base at high supersonic speeds, and Israel was not able to counter them. That's the fact.

We can expect a salvo to take out the S-400, so will we take out their SAM systems with Rampage, LORA, and Rocks missile systems?

 

[Chinese eater]

They may be delusional, but this is very low probability. Despite economic challenges, Pakistan is building capabilities. Teeth-to-teeth countering India shows how determined they are in the procurement of weapons, while India has the world's most complex, time-consuming procurement policy.

 

[Gentleman]

I acknowledge that the S-400 is not a top-tier defense system, but its level is not so low that Pakistan could develop something to match its capabilities.

 

[Bhishma]

They do have a point. Iran's S-300 missiles were taken out by the Israelis by air-launched ballistic missiles that could not be intercepted by the S-300 SAM system. Again, we saw that Iran's ballistic missiles hit the Israeli airforce base at high supersonic speeds, and Israel was not able to counter them. That's the fact.

We can expect a salvo to take out the S-400, so will we take out their SAM systems with Rampage, LORA, and Rocks missile systems?

The thing is escalation. If they use that, sure, they can take the S400 out if they can locate it. But if they are able to land one hit, or even demonstrate that they are going ballistic, there will be an equivalent response from the Indian side. Their capital is literally about 90 km from the border. In a full-scale war, they won't survive. Just with Pinaka artillery, we can take out most of their populated areas. That's why they cultivated Afghanistan as their "strategic depth" in the past. Now, they don't even have that advantage. In a real I-P war, they will be facing a three-front attack. They are just asking for trouble.

 

[Bhishma]

They may be delusional, but this is very low probability. Despite economic challenges, Pakistan is building capabilities. Teeth-to-teeth countering India shows how determined they are in the procurement of weapons, while India has the world's most complex, time-consuming procurement policy.

Why does it matter? They are still beggars and lost every war. They were given the golden opportunity to start a war. They chickened out and released our pilot in a record 36 hours. Big talk.

 

[Radha Ramanan]

The thing is escalation. If they use that, sure, they can take the S400 out if they can locate it. But if they are able to land one hit, or even demonstrate that they are going ballistic, there will be an equivalent response from the Indian side. Their capital is literally about 90 km from the border. In a full-scale war, they won't survive. Just with Pinaka artillery, we can take out most of their populated areas. That's why they cultivated Afghanistan as their "strategic depth" in the past. Now, they don't even have that advantage. In a real I-P war, they will be facing a three-front attack. They are just asking for trouble.

Agreed, but both sides will never attack populated sites. It serves no tactical value. It's difficult stopping ballistic missiles, but the Indian S-400 has been made to our wants. It clearly has an ABM capability as well. All is good on paper, but the proof is in the pudding. Cheap anti-radiation swarm drones are very effective against S-400 type systems as well.