Pakistan has recently introduced the Fatah-II Short-Range Ballistic Missile (SRBM), positioning it as a direct counter to India's Russian-made S-400 "Triumf" air defence system. This move marks a significant development in the ongoing regional arms race.
The Fatah-II, first test-launched in December 2023 and further tested in May 2024, is presented by Pakistani officials as a weapon capable of penetrating modern air defenses and striking critical enemy targets.
The Fatah-II boasts a range of 400 kilometers, advanced avionics, and a unique flight path. It is designed to target key infrastructure and military assets, including bridges, military bases, communication centers, command and control hubs, and even air defence installations like the S-400 itself.
This development, as of early March 2025, highlights Pakistan's efforts to counter India's increasing defensive capabilities, leading to questions about the shifting balance of power in the South Asian region.
Developed by Pakistan's Global Industrial & Defence Solutions (GIDS), the Fatah-II is a significant upgrade from its predecessor, the Fatah-I, which had a range of 140 kilometers.
The Fatah-II combines extended reach with precision, reportedly having a Circular Error Probable (CEP) of under 10 meters. Pakistan's Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) states that the missile incorporates advanced avionics, a sophisticated navigation system using both inertial and satellite guidance, and a special flight trajectory to help it avoid interception. The Fatah-II is launched from a mobile system, making it difficult to detect and track by radar.
Pakistani military officials claim the Fatah-II was specifically designed to "challenge" advanced air defence systems like the S-400.
India began receiving the S-400 in 2021 as part of a $5.4 billion agreement with Russia. The S-400 is considered one of the most advanced surface-to-air missile systems globally, capable of engaging aircraft, cruise missiles, and ballistic threats at ranges from 40 to 400 kilometers and altitudes up to 30 kilometers.
Pakistan's strategy involves using the Fatah-II in saturation attacks – launching multiple missiles, along with drones and other munitions – to exploit any potential weaknesses in the S-400's defenses.
Beyond countering air defenses, the Fatah-II is intended as a precision strike weapon against high-value targets, even those with strong protection. These targets include:
- Bridges: To disrupt critical infrastructure and hinder troop and supply movements.
- Military Bases: To reduce the enemy's operational capabilities.
- Communication Facilities: To disrupt coordination and intelligence gathering.
- Command and Control Centers: To disrupt decision-making and create chaos on the battlefield.
- Air Defence System Locations: To directly attack S-400 batteries or their supporting radar systems, weakening India's defenses.
The Fatah-II's 400-kilometer range puts important Indian military installations within reach, including air bases in Punjab and Rajasthan, key bridges, and even mobile S-400 units near the Line of Control (LoC).
By incorporating the Fatah-II into its artillery, Pakistan aims to achieve precise, stand-off engagement capabilities, increasing the range and effectiveness of its conventional forces.
Pakistan's claim that the Fatah-II can overcome the S-400 is based on several technical aspects, but its actual effectiveness is debated. The missile's relatively flat trajectory and supersonic speed (estimated between Mach 4 and Mach 6) could shorten the reaction time for air defence systems. Its mobility, using truck-mounted launchers, makes it harder for Indian surveillance to locate and target preemptively.
The Fatah-II's relatively low cost compared to larger ballistic missiles also makes "barrage tactics" – overwhelming defenses with a large number of rockets – a viable option. This strategy has seen some success in other conflicts, such as in Ukraine.
However, the S-400's capabilities raise questions about Pakistan's claims. The S-400 has a detection range of up to 600 kilometers and can track and engage numerous targets simultaneously (up to 36, according to Russian specifications) using various missiles, including the 40N6E (400 km range) and 48N6E2 (designed for ballistic threats).
The system's Very High Frequency (VHF) radars, like the NEBO SVU, are specifically designed to detect low-flying, fast-moving objects, potentially negating the Fatah-II's flat trajectory advantage. Reports from Indian Air Force exercises suggest the S-400 has a high success rate against simulated enemy aircraft.
Military analysts believe the Fatah-II's success would likely depend on overwhelming the S-400 with a large number of projectiles, requiring coordination with cruise missiles, loitering munitions, and Fatah-I rockets.
However, India's multi-layered air defence system, which includes the indigenous Akash, Barak-8, and the upcoming Project Kusha systems, could potentially absorb such an attack, allowing the S-400 to focus on higher-priority threats.
The S-400's own mobility also complicates Pakistan's targeting strategy, as units can be moved to avoid pre-planned attacks.According to open source, The S-400 is also road-mobile, meaning it can change position, enhancing it survivability.
The introduction of the Fatah-II also carries the risk of escalating tensions. Its ability to target S-400 sites could lead to preemptive Indian strikes, particularly given the missile's proximity to the LoC when launched from certain areas.
India currently lacks a direct equivalent to the Fatah-II in terms of range, with its Pinaka rockets having a shorter range and longer-range systems like Pralay and BrahMos being more expensive for widespread deployment. This gap could accelerate the development of indigenous Indian systems, such as the proposed 300-km Maheshwarastra.
In conclusion, the Fatah-II SRBM represents Pakistan's attempt to counter India's S-400 advantage by providing a relatively low-cost, mobile, and precise weapon capable of threatening high-value targets.
While its technical characteristics present a challenge, the S-400's proven capabilities and India's layered defenses suggest that successfully penetrating Indian airspace is not guaranteed. The missile's real impact might be more psychological and strategic, forcing India to re-evaluate its air defence strategy and invest in countermeasures.
