Analysis For 1/3 of 36 Rafale Cost, How Upgrading 200 Su-30MKI with AL-31F 177S Engines and Virupaksha Radar Can Create Near 5th-Gen Fleet for IAF

The Indian Air Force (IAF) is at a strategic crossroads as it evaluates the most effective path to modernise its fighter jet fleet and maintain air superiority in a complex geopolitical landscape, highlighted by recent regional tensions during events such as the reported 'Operation Sindoor' in May 2025.

While acquiring more French-made Dassault Rafale jets is one option, a compelling and potentially more cost-effective alternative is gaining traction: a large-scale upgrade of its existing Sukhoi Su-30MKI fleet.

A proposal is being considered to significantly expand the IAF's current "Super-30" upgrade plan.

The initial program, approved in 2023 for ₹19,000 crore, involves modernising 84 Su-30MKI aircraft. The new, more ambitious plan would see at least 200 of the IAF's 260 Su-30MKI jets outfitted with the powerful AL-31F 177S engine and the state-of-the-art indigenous Virupaksha AESA radar.

This extensive modernisation could transform the backbone of the IAF into a near-fifth-generation fighting force, aligning with India's national self-reliance goals in defence manufacturing.

At the heart of the proposed upgrade is the Saturn AL-31F Series 3 (177S) engine, a significantly improved version of the Su-30MKI's current power plant. This advanced engine delivers 14.5 tons of thrust, a 15% increase over the 12.5 tons from the existing AL-31FP engine.

This additional power enhances the aircraft's supercruise ability, allowing it to maintain supersonic speeds without the heavy fuel consumption of afterburners.

Furthermore, the 177S engine boasts a longer service life of 4,000 hours and improved reliability, which is crucial for operations in challenging high-altitude terrains like Ladakh and for reducing long-term maintenance costs.

The second crucial component of the upgrade is the domestically developed Virupaksha Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar.

Designed by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), this system represents a major technological leap over the Su-30MKI's current N011M Bars passive radar.

The Virupaksha radar can detect fighter-sized targets from a greater distance of approximately 250–300 kilometres and can simultaneously track up to 40 targets. Its Gallium Nitride (GaN) technology provides superior resistance to electronic jamming, a critical capability in modern warfare scenarios.

The financial case for the upgrade is highly persuasive.

Equipping 200 Su-30MKI fighters with new 177S engines is estimated to cost between ₹20,000 and ₹25,000 crore. In contrast, acquiring 36 additional Rafale jets would likely cost upwards of ₹90,000 crore, based on the 2016 agreement.

This means the IAF could modernise a fleet of 200 fighters for approximately one-third of the cost of acquiring 36 new Rafales. Such a move would also help address the IAF's declining squadron numbers, bringing it closer to the sanctioned strength of 42 squadrons from its current level of around 31.

While the Dassault Rafale possesses superior features in stealth and its integrated electronic warfare suite, a modernised Su-30MKI presents a formidable package.

The upgraded Su-30MKI would significantly close the technological gap, offering a larger payload capacity, a longer combat radius, and the advantage of a two-person crew for complex strike and air-to-air missions.

By integrating advanced indigenous systems like the Astra series of missiles and the BrahMos-NG, the upgraded fleet would provide a potent combination of numbers, performance, and strategic value, offering India a practical path to securing its skies.

 

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[Prem Jain]

Upgrade of SU 30 with new avionics and engines will be good. ToT of SU 57 with licensed production with full autonomy could solve our problems to some extent. Going down in the number of squadron is another worry but the quality of the assets can to some extent solve the problem.

 

[souvick27m]

Keep everything aside. Requesting our country leader to note that we are, at the end of this year will be, left with 29 or 28 squadrons, which is just 3 more than Pakistan and no where near China. We must decide and aquire fast to fill the gap, else we will not get the time to blink and we may have to pay the price for that. Country must survive first, else there will be no place for any party.

 

[Capt Mahendra]

From the conflicts all around the world, including Op. Sindhoor, the lesson learned is that it is more important to have air assets that you can continuously develop and evolve as the nature of warfare changes, instead of having the shiniest new toy that you cannot upgrade in 5 years.

The pace of obsolescence in air conflict is such now. In 2018, when we did the G2G deal, the Rafale was perhaps the best 4.5G aircraft money could buy. By the time it had arrived and now in 2025, it is no longer the best 4.5 gen fighter as others have caught up and some have even surpassed it.

Ultimately, at Op. Sindhoor it was all the air assets that we had some control on development and upgrade that helped us, be it the S400, L70, Akash, SU-30MKI with Brahmos, the Brahmos itself, etc.

If the government and IAF understand this lesson properly, they will double down on a serious upgrade of the SU-30MKI instead of chasing the MRFA deal with the French, unless the French will give the same level of autonomy on the Rafale as the Russians have given us with the SU-30MKI. I doubt that the French will ever give that to us.

The Chinese have been strategic about upgrading their Sukhoi clones such as the J16D, where they have replaced metal panels with composites, used S-ducts for air intakes for engine blade radar and IR signature suppression, etc. along with upgraded avionics, radar, and missiles.

Yet for the so-called "Super Sukhoi" upgrade we are doing none of that, just avionics, radar, and weapons. And by the time it arrives, it will be the 2025 Rafale situation all over again where all of the Super Sukhoi upgrades will be commonplace already and even Pakistan will have it, let alone the Chinese. The time for the Virupaksha radar upgrade is now, not 5-7 years from now.

In a 5-7 years timeframe, our Sukhoi 30s need to be an all composite airframe with S-ducts, a near 5th gen engine (177s), and MUMT.

This must be the lesson learned on the 5th gen fighter procurement as well. The SU57 may be far from perfect today, but so long as we get the same autonomy with its development as the SU-30MKI, we can evolve it into a much better aircraft for our needs than the F35 ever will be for us.

Yes IAF and government should sign up for Su 57 without wasting any more thinking Time and get a surprise from China a Pakistan with their 5th and 6th Gen fighters while our system keeps thinking at a the tortoise pace. I can't understand why the IAF and the govt are not taking the decision to get the Russian offer of Su57 which is a dream offer of Total freedom to improve upgrade and incorporate all our Technologies as the production processes and that too at may be double the cost of wasting time and money on su30 MKI upgradation. Our decision making system is sooooooo slow that by the Time it's taken the technology has moved forward and we are still lagging behind. India must learn from Pakistan in taking critical defence decisions. Like they have already ordered the 5th Gen after op Sindoor. And we are contemplating for last 3 yrs as to what aircraft to induct is very worrying.

 

[Sun Beam]

Let Super Sukhoi's fly soon and become a reality......

 

[DS]

Lessons from wars in 21st century.

1) WVR combat is unlikely.

2) BVR combat is the order of the day at 150 kms plus.

3) IAF and IN need heavily armed fighters- bombtrucks -,actually armed with LONG RANGE MISSILE capabilities for stand off combat in Air to Ground and Air to Air missiles. Brahmos NG and ASTRA mk2 & Mk3 are required to be fitted fast .

4) Upgraded SU-30 mki fighters required in step by step approach in our MRO’s.

5) Upgrade acquisition of new SU-30 Mki fighters from HAL by 100 more today. They do not need any inputs from overseas .

Quantity and Quality achieved fast .

 

[Prasad Kulkarni]

Sounds like a good idea to upgrade the Su30s. But definitely not the existing ones in the fleet, right now. The new Su30s manufactured should be built with these or even more powerful 145kN engines and the AESA radar and all other latest gadgets that we can think of. The production line has to be fast tracked on a war footing.
I personally believe we should have atleast 50 squadrons, not just 42. We shud be atleast in a position to give both China and Pak a bloodied nose in a very likely situation of they both attacking us simultaneously.

 

[dunla52]

Yes, lakhs of times I have said the Super Sukhoi upgrade without the 117S is incomplete. Furthermore, heavier weapons would be carried, and the Super Sukhoi is going to remain until 2060. The current AL-31, which has about 123 kN of thrust, is insufficient with the GaN-based AESA radar with 2,400 to 2,700 TRMs, various sensors and features, and heavy weapons like the BrahMos-2K hypersonic missile and DEW on the Super Sukhoi.

With HAL expected to develop a triple pylon, close to 20 more A2A missiles can be carried. That's why the IAF should consider a 145 kN thrust engine with better technology and close to 6,000 hours.

Wasted 25+ yrs but Kaveri still not finished HAL kept on screwing us eating samosas and drinking alcohol on our dime

 

[Doc]

The way to go for the Super Sukhoi is to have it fitted with an AL-41 engine which is the latest in the Saturn inventory.
In fact this 'better/more powerful' engine was offered for the Super Sukhoi upgrade, but was turned down by HAL.

Google excerpt below :

While the AL-41 engine is not a direct drop-in replacement for the AL-31 engines on the Su-30MKI, Russia has offered the AL-41F1S (a heavily upgraded variant of the AL-31F) as an upgrade option for the Su-30MKI. This engine, also used in the Su-35S, would provide improved thrust, fuel efficiency, and reliability. However, India has ultimately decided to stick with the AL-31FP engine for its Super Sukhoi upgrade program, opting for modernization of the existing engine with a digital control system according to Indian Defence Research Wing.

 

[Muks]

Yes, lakhs of times I have said the Super Sukhoi upgrade without the 117S is incomplete. Furthermore, heavier weapons would be carried, and the Super Sukhoi is going to remain until 2060. The current AL-31, which has about 123 kN of thrust, is insufficient with the GaN-based AESA radar with 2,400 to 2,700 TRMs, various sensors and features, and heavy weapons like the BrahMos-2K hypersonic missile and DEW on the Super Sukhoi.

With HAL expected to develop a triple pylon, close to 20 more A2A missiles can be carried. That's why the IAF should consider a 145 kN thrust engine with better technology and close to 6,000 hours.

Sorry to bust your bubble.

The engine you are referring to is the 177S, not 117S. It would provide about 15% extra thrust to provide some additional load.

The Virupaksha would at best have 1500 - 1600 TRMs max. Not 2400 - 2700 as you dream. The nose dia gives you about 1.1 mtrs which can at max accommodate 1600 TRMs but it would be better to have 1500 due to cooling issues. In any case 2400 is beyond a pipe dream unless you reduce the size of the TRMs to half which have their own issues.

Next is about this so called triple launcher. It would be so high drag and unwieldy once all three missiles are loaded, that it would not only eat up all the extra thrust from the engine upgrade but it would stop handling like a fighter and more like a tanker ac. Is that what you want?? The Su-30 already has more than enough hard points for a pure A-A load out with about 14 missiles. It does not need to take on the PAF or PLAAF single handedly.

 

[Kavach]

The writer has raised a very valid point. But we must always remember that there are a few officials in our Indian Air force n defence ministry who keep reconfiguring specifications in domestic production, delay indigenous production creatively through a hundred different ways , allow aircrafts to crash so that numbers get depleted, in fact slyly work to influence our politicians to work on critical shortages so that imports happen. Obviously a few hundred crores land up for each of them in their foreign accounts or wherever. Perhaps they all are regularly paid two crores a month, each one of them, which is several times their official salary. And money does buy people. Remember. Till date not a single official has taken a bribe ? Anyone arrested ? Removed ? Don't we know how to tap phones ? Doesn't the IB have information. All willfully keep quiet, because some pmo secretary may ask them to. What can a few honest officials do then ?

 

[Muks]

The writer has raised a very valid point. But we must always remember that there are a few officials in our Indian Air force n defence ministry who keep reconfiguring specifications in domestic production, delay indigenous production creatively through a hundred different ways , allow aircrafts to crash so that numbers get depleted, in fact slyly work to influence our politicians to work on critical shortages so that imports happen. Obviously a few hundred crores land up for each of them in their foreign accounts or wherever. Perhaps they all are regularly paid two crores a month, each one of them, which is several times their official salary. And money does buy people. Remember. Till date not a single official has taken a bribe ? Anyone arrested ? Removed ? Don't we know how to tap phones ? Doesn't the IB have information. All willfully keep quiet, because some pmo secretary may ask them to. What can a few honest officials do then ?

Let's see. You make two points. First, that officials cunningly change specifications. Yes they do, but what you conveniently and deliberately omitted to mention is that, those changes happen to keep a platform relevant with changing facets of warfare. Take the case of the Tejas. When the specs were drawn, in 1983, R-60MK AAMs were in vogue. By 1995, even the prototype was nowhere after 12 years. So the specs now had to be R-73 because all R-60MKs were retired. I understand that being our first truly indigenous effort, it took time but these things will happen. Next ones are going much faster.

Second, you said officials deliberately crash planes to build shortages and then manipulate to take bribes. We'll I can only speculate that no one in your immediate or extended family has served in the Armed forces. If they had you would not be making such a CRASS remark. I am agast.

 

[Doc]

Unlike the Euro Typhoon, the Rafale, though a multi-roler, is NOT a true dog-fighting jet aircraft. It is more suited to strikes due to its advanced electronics and armament loads.
It therefore makes no sense hoodwinking ourselves by going for an exorbitantly expensive aircraft, which, in any case, is not likely to be available for delivery due to an over-loaded order-line-up.

The options left for us therefore boils down to :
1) Su-57E (India specific)
2) Su35/MiG-35 (the latter has the advantage of having been evaluated before).
3) Su-75 : a stealth design which has still not started series production, still at prototype stage.
4) Su-30MKI : modified with a new 'Product 177' engine and an Indian-made Virupaksha radar with an expected range of 250-300 kms.

Why, therefore are we planning to induct (on Govt-Govt deal) some more Rafales when they cannot be delivered in a hurry due to over-loaded production-lines?

The 'Super Su-30' makes much more sense given its low cost. However, the Super Su-30s are NOT going to increase our squadron strength !!!!!!! Will HAL be able to produce retro-fitted 'new' Su-30s on time; think NOT? We'd be MISSING THE WOODS FOR THE TREES!

The long and the short? 'Off the shelf' acquisition of a couple of squadrons of the listed Russian fighters, followed by series production rights with full safeguards.
That is, if, our stated aim is to rapidly increase squadron strength - if it's elsewhere, then. it's anybody's guess.

 

[emgee]

Unlike the Euro Typhoon, the Rafale, though a multi-roler, is NOT a true dog-fighting jet aircraft. It is more suited to strikes due to its advanced electronics and armament loads.
It therefore makes no sense hoodwinking ourselves by going for an exorbitantly expensive aircraft, which, in any case, is not likely to be available for delivery due to an over-loaded order-line-up.

The options left for us therefore boils down to :
1) Su-57E (India specific)
2) Su35/MiG-35 (the latter has the advantage of having been evaluated before).
3) Su-75 : a stealth design which has still not started series production, still at prototype stage.
4) Su-30MKI : modified with a new 'Product 177' engine a an Indian-made Virupaksha radar with an expected range of 250-300 kms.

Why, therefore are we planning to induct (on Govt-Govt deal) some more Rafales when they cannot be delivered in a hurry due to over-loaded production-lines?

The 'Super Su-30' makes much more sense given its low cost. However, the Super Su-30s are NOT going to increase our squadron strength !!!!!!! Will HAL be able to produce retro-fitted 'new' Su-30s on time; think NOT? We'd be MISSING THE WOODS FOR THE TREES!

The long and the short? 'Off the shelf' acquisition of a couple of squadrons of the listed Russian fighters, followed by series production rights with full safeguards.
That is, if, our stated aim is to rapidly increase squadron strength - if it's elsewhere, then. it's anybody's guess.

The Rafale isn't exorbitantly expensive.
It's a multirole aircraft with robust dogfighting ability.
It is somewhat compromised by the French requiring a catapult launched variant.
The one aircraft on your wishlist that makes sense is the SU-75. Single-engined, possibly quite affordable and the Russians have offered you complete manufacturing of all export orders.

 

[Doc]

The Rafale isn't exorbitantly expensive.
It's a multirole aircraft with robust dogfighting ability.
It is somewhat compromised by the French requiring a catapult launched variant.
The one aircraft on your wishlist that makes sense is the SU-75. Single-engined, possibly quite affordable and the Russians have offered you complete manufacturing of all export orders.

As they say, everyone has his/her opinion.
At more than double the cost of a Super Su, the Rafale will chew up ill-available finances.

The days of dog-fighting are more or less over, with the advent of CCMs and BVR missiles.
The only aircraft (out of the contenders for MRFA) that finds mention in Google, for its dog-fighting ability is the Typhoon.
Every fighter aircraft has to have that capability, but to what extent, unless it's a fighter-bomber where it's a case of shoot/dump and scoot..

Anyway thanks for commenting.

 

[Muks]

As they say, everyone has his/her opinion.
At more than double the cost of a Super Su, the Rafale will chew up ill-available finances.

The days of dog-fighting are more or less over, with the advent of CCMs and BVR missiles.
The only aircraft (out of the contenders for MRFA) that finds mention in Google, for its dog-fighting ability is the Typhoon.
Every fighter aircraft has to have that capability, but to what extent, unless it's a fighter-bomber where it's a case of shoot/dump and scoot..

Anyway thanks for commenting.

Don't assume Google to be Mr know all. If the Eurofighter goes one one, no advantage, with either a MiG-29 or a Su-30 MKI, in a pure dog fight, it will get chewed up and spit out in about a minute. MKI will be even quicker because of his TVC.

 

[emgee]

As they say, everyone has his/her opinion.
At more than double the cost of a Super Su, the Rafale will chew up ill-available finances.

The days of dog-fighting are more or less over, with the advent of CCMs and BVR missiles.
The only aircraft (out of the contenders for MRFA) that finds mention in Google, for its dog-fighting ability is the Typhoon.
Every fighter aircraft has to have that capability, but to what extent, unless it's a fighter-bomber where it's a case of shoot/dump and scoot..

Anyway thanks for commenting.

You are spreading the Rafale program costs across the initial airframes. The India-specific modifications are non-recurring costs. Subsequent Rafale purchases would not include those initial non-recurring costs.

The Luftwaffe has gone all in on the F-35A
Thirty five airframes for a total of €10bn.
An extra €2bn to modernise Büchel AFB.
A total of €12bn. Multiplied by 1.17 and we're up to $14bn.
Divided by 35 airframes equals $400mn per airframe.
The Luftwaffe is considering an additional 8 airframes.
It should be blindingly obvious that those additional planes won't cost $400mn each.