IAF Eyeing At Least 10 Squadrons of 5th-Gen Fighter Jets by 2040, Relying Heavily on the Timely Success of AMCA

The Indian Air Force (IAF) has laid out a crucial roadmap to significantly modernize its fleet, with the goal of inducting at least 10 to 11 squadrons of fifth-generation stealth fighters by 2040.

This ambitious plan, which aims for these advanced aircraft to constitute 25% of the total fleet, is critically dependent on the timely development and production of the indigenous Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA).

The push for modernization comes as the IAF grapples with a severe depletion in its squadron strength.

Currently operating with only 31 squadrons against a government-sanctioned strength of 42, the force is facing a critical capability gap. This shortfall is set to worsen as the last two squadrons of the vintage MiG-21 'Bison' aircraft are scheduled for retirement by the end of 2025.

The gradual phasing out of other legacy fleets like the Jaguar, Mirage 2000, and MiG-29 without a corresponding rate of new inductions has intensified the urgency to rebuild the force structure for credible national defence.

The mandated 42 squadrons, each typically comprising 18 fighter jets, are considered the minimum requirement for India to effectively manage a potential two-front conflict scenario.

However, due to persistent delays in procurement and production bottlenecks, the original timeline to achieve this strength by 2035 has now been revised to 2040.

According to official sources, meeting this new deadline is "non-negotiable" and will require the induction of over 400 new aircraft over the next 15 years to replace nearly 150 retiring jets.

At the heart of India's fifth-generation aspirations is the AMCA program.

Being developed by the Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA) and DRDO, the AMCA is a 25-tonne, twin-engine stealth fighter designed with advanced features like a low radar cross-section, internal weapons bays, and the ability to supercruise (fly at supersonic speeds without using afterburners).

In a major boost to the project, the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) approved ₹15,000 crore in March 2024 for the development of five prototypes. The project timeline targets the first flight by 2028 and the commencement of serial production around 2035.

The induction plan for the AMCA is phased. The initial two squadrons, designated Mk1, will be powered by the American GE F414 engine.

The subsequent five squadrons of the more advanced AMCA Mk2 are slated to be equipped with a new, more powerful 110 kN indigenous engine, which is expected to be co-developed with an international partner, likely France's Safran.

The success of this engine project is vital for achieving true self-reliance in combat aircraft technology.

To mitigate risks and ensure that capability gaps do not emerge if the AMCA program faces delays, the IAF is also pursuing a parallel track of acquiring jets from foreign vendors.

The long-pending Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) tender to acquire 114 jets could serve as a pathway for this. While contenders include 4.5-generation jets like the Rafale and F-15EX, the possibility of acquiring a fifth-generation platform like the US F-35 or Russia's Su-57 remains an option, though each comes with its own geopolitical and technological considerations.

Ultimately, the IAF's strategy is a hybrid approach, blending the flagship indigenous AMCA program with potential foreign acquisitions.

This dual-pronged plan is designed to ensure the IAF achieves technological parity with its adversaries and successfully transitions to a modern, formidable force capable of deploying advanced concepts like manned-unmanned teaming with autonomous drones by 2040.

 

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[navinbijoy]

When super powers are going for 6 th Gen, ur eyeing for 5 th Gen in 2040.

Btw resolve the engine part at the earliest.

 

[indigenous_29]

Relying solely on the AMCA program would be a high-risk strategy. A more practical alternative could be the Su-57M1, the enhanced stealth variant of the Su-57 that addresses many of the original aircraft’s shortcomings. Ideally, India should aim to locally produce at least five squadrons of this platform by the late 2030s. However, such a deal would only be possible under favorable geopolitical circumstances, since it otherwise carries significant CAATSA-related risks.

As for the F-35, while it is technologically well-suited for the IAF, its acquisition cost is higher than the Rafale, and its operating costs are estimated to be 2-3x greater. Moreover, the F-35 would face challenges in fully integrating with India’s existing networks and weapons systems, while also being expensive to maintain. Other IAF jets won't be able to use it as eyes during engagements in contested airspace. Procuring the jet in small numbers is possible, but from a long-term perspective, that approach would not be practical or cost-effective.

 

[Snowstrike]

Ah yes, an article which critically ignores real data again! Fact check: The United States has not offered the F-35 for sale to India. News regarding that is purely unofficial speculation. While Trump had hinted at it back in February, it has never materialized. As for the AMCA mk2 engine, while no decision has been made yet, the MoD seems to be favoring Safran, because of their 3 year shorter timeline, sacrificing next-gen tech and long term leadership for older, albeit proven 4th gen heritage. and the 'French Connection' (read: Exploitation in past decades referred to as 'French Connection'.)