IAF Plans 60 Fighter Squadrons by 2047, Success Hinges on Tejas and AMCA

The Indian Air Force (IAF) aims to significantly increase its fighter aircraft strength to 60 squadrons by 2047, the year marking the centenary of India's independence.

This ambitious goal, revealed by senior IAF officials, is part of a broader strategy to bolster air dominance and national security in response to evolving global and regional challenges.

The expansion plan represents a substantial increase from the IAF's current operational capacity. To achieve this, a combination of domestic manufacturing, strategic international purchases, and advancements in aviation technology will be necessary. This approach aligns with India's overarching goal of achieving self-reliance in defense production by 2047.

Presently, the IAF operates approximately 31 fighter squadrons, falling short of the sanctioned strength of 42 squadrons. This authorized number is considered essential for effectively addressing potential threats along India's borders with China and Pakistan.

With each squadron typically consisting of 18-20 aircraft, the current IAF fleet comprises roughly 550-600 fighter jets. The existing shortfall is primarily attributed to the retirement of older aircraft, such as the MiG-21, MiG-23, and MiG-27, without timely replacements.

The IAF's current fleet is a combination of aircraft from both domestic and international sources. It includes the domestically produced Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Tejas Mk-1, along with the Sukhoi Su-30 MKI, MiG-29, Mirage 2000, Rafale, and Jaguar. The Su-30 MKI constitutes the largest portion of the fleet, with over 260 aircraft.

The addition of modern aircraft like the Rafale (36 delivered) and the Tejas Mk-1A (83 ordered, with an additional 97 approved) represents progress in modernization. However, the rate of production and acquisition has been slow, making it difficult to fill the gap in squadron numbers. Delays in defense procurement and production have been a persistent challenge for India's military modernization.

The IAF's objective of reaching 60 squadrons by 2047 would result in a fleet of approximately 1,080 to 1,200 fighter aircraft, almost double its current size. This target is primarily motivated by the need to address growing regional threats.

China's air force is rapidly expanding, currently operating over 1,900 fighters, including advanced fifth-generation J-20 jets. Pakistan is also modernizing its air force, including its JF-17 fleet, and is considering acquiring Chinese stealth fighters.

Reaching the 60-squadron target will require the IAF to add around 500-600 new fighter jets over the next two decades. This is a considerable but potentially achievable undertaking with careful planning.

The IAF's strategy involves a blend of domestic production, collaborative development with international partners, and direct purchases to create a well-rounded and capable fleet.

A key component of the IAF's plan is the focus on domestically produced aircraft, supporting the "Make in India" and "Atmanirbhar Bharat" (Self-Reliant India) initiatives.

The LCA Tejas program, managed by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), is expected to be crucial to this expansion. The IAF has already placed orders for 180 Tejas Mk-1 and Mk-1A aircraft.

The more advanced Tejas Mk-2, equipped with a GE F-414 engine, is planned for induction by the late 2020s. This 4.5-generation fighter, offering improved range, payload capacity, and avionics, is projected to constitute a significant portion of the IAF's light fighter squadrons, with a potential induction of over 200 units by 2047.

Furthermore, the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), a fifth-generation stealth fighter currently being developed by the Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA) and HAL, is slated for production in the mid-2030s.

The AMCA, featuring stealth technology, supercruise capability (sustaining supersonic flight without afterburners), and advanced sensor integration, is intended to be the IAF's primary platform for air superiority and deep-strike operations. The IAF plans to acquire at least 200 AMCA units, encompassing both Mk-1 and Mk-2 versions, by 2047, creating 10-12 squadrons of stealth fighters.

While domestic production will be central to the IAF's growth, strategic international acquisitions and upgrades to existing aircraft will also be essential. The IAF is currently pursuing the Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) program to procure 114 new fighter jets. Potential contenders for the MRFA contract include the Rafale, F-15EX, F/A-18 Super Hornet, Typhoon, and Su-35.

The MRFA deal, anticipated to be finalized in the near future, will provide an immediate increase in the IAF's squadron numbers, allowing time for indigenous programs like the Tejas Mk-2 and AMCA to reach full operational capability.

 

[P2S2]

Like clockwork. Clocks been cleaned, oiled and upgraded.

 

[P2S2]

With the PAF, Indian Air Force will be able to keep the region safe. Peoples Liberation Army Air Force with JSDF and RKAF will be able to keep east Asia safe while EU will be able to assist the African Union to keep their region safe. The Americas have provided safety in their region. Only Austral Asia needs to step up their game.

 

[sanket]

For that, we need a production rate of 35 to 40 per year & a similar production rate of engines too. By just making airframes, it is not going to help. Exactly a month ago, there was an article about GE preparing for shipment of the GE-404 engine & it was likely to reach Bharat within a few days. What happened? Even after 30 days, the engine is yet to be delivered.

 

[Anant]

1000 fighters, eh? Let's break this down: The only fighters in service today that will remain in service in 2047 are the Su-30MKI, Rafale, and Tejas Mk 1. Of these, the Su-30MKI fleet will have been partially retired.

Therefore, of the 1,000 jets, we would have (assuming no losses due to crashes for certain aircraft types, which is itself a very optimistic assumption):

• 136 Su-30MKIs (assuming 50% of the fleet has been retired or lost)
• 36 Rafales
• 33-ish Tejas Mk 1s.

All that adds up to about 205 aircraft. Now, in the pipeline, we have 4 Tejas Mk 1 trainers pending from an old order, plus 83, plus 97 Tejas Mk1As (which includes the 10 additional trainers), plus 114 MRFA jets. That is another 298 jets.

Still, even with the pipeline jets added, that brings us to 503 fighters, which is just over 31 squadrons. Essentially, at this point, in terms of replacements, all these new aircraft would only be replacing older jets and reaching today's paradigm.

That leaves another 497 jets. Assuming the plan for 120 Tejas Mk 2s and 120 AMCAs goes through, that is still 237 jets short.

However, none of this accounts for two things: losses and rate of production. Assuming we continue to lose 2-3 jets a year, that is another 65 or so jets (at maximum) we would have to consider. Moreover, even with HAL cranking out aircraft at its best capability, we would find it difficult to crack 24-ish jets a year (and that is assuming HAL can fix its inherent issues completely).

Therefore, in the next 22 years, one can assume a best-case scenario of about 24 jets a year, which translates to 528 new jets. Mind you, that number is optimistic, since we are not producing anywhere near 24 jets in 2025. Assume another 12 jets a year from some private line, and at 40 jets a year, that gives you 792 new jets by 2047. Again, overly optimistic, but let's go with this.

792 new jets plus the 205 retained jets is 997 jets. We still aren't reaching 1,000 jets, and once you account for the 66-ish losses, that brings numbers closer to 930 jets, which is 58 squadrons.

At this point, just focus on 42 squadrons by 2040 and 45-48 by 2047, rather than trying to go crazy.

 

[P2S2]

For that, we need a production rate of 35 to 40 per year & a similar production rate of engines too. By just making airframes, it is not going to help. Exactly a month ago, there was an article about GE preparing for shipment of the GE-404 engine & it was likely to reach Bharat within a few days. What happened? Even after 30 days, the engine is yet to be delivered.

Probably mayhem in Uncle Sam's domain.

 

[P2S2]

1000 fighters, eh? Let's break this down: The only fighters in service today that will remain in service in 2047 are the Su-30MKI, Rafale, and Tejas Mk 1. Of these, the Su-30MKI fleet will have been partially retired.

Therefore, of the 1,000 jets, we would have (assuming no losses due to crashes for certain aircraft types, which is itself a very optimistic assumption):

• 136 Su-30MKIs (assuming 50% of the fleet has been retired or lost)
• 36 Rafales
• 33-ish Tejas Mk 1s.

All that adds up to about 205 aircraft. Now, in the pipeline, we have 4 Tejas Mk 1 trainers pending from an old order, plus 83, plus 97 Tejas Mk1As (which includes the 10 additional trainers), plus 114 MRFA jets. That is another 298 jets.

Still, even with the pipeline jets added, that brings us to 503 fighters, which is just over 31 squadrons. Essentially, at this point, in terms of replacements, all these new aircraft would only be replacing older jets and reaching today's paradigm.

That leaves another 497 jets. Assuming the plan for 120 Tejas Mk 2s and 120 AMCAs goes through, that is still 237 jets short.

However, none of this accounts for two things: losses and rate of production. Assuming we continue to lose 2-3 jets a year, that is another 65 or so jets (at maximum) we would have to consider. Moreover, even with HAL cranking out aircraft at its best capability, we would find it difficult to crack 24-ish jets a year (and that is assuming HAL can fix its inherent issues completely).

Therefore, in the next 22 years, one can assume a best-case scenario of about 24 jets a year, which translates to 528 new jets. Mind you, that number is optimistic, since we are not producing anywhere near 24 jets in 2025. Assume another 12 jets a year from some private line, and at 40 jets a year, that gives you 792 new jets by 2047. Again, overly optimistic, but let's go with this.

792 new jets plus the 205 retained jets is 997 jets. We still aren't reaching 1,000 jets, and once you account for the 66-ish losses, that brings numbers closer to 930 jets, which is 58 squadrons.

At this point, just focus on 42 squadrons by 2040 and 45-48 by 2047, rather than trying to go crazy.

Stay focused and cool. Not necessary to blow ourselves up unless situation changes dramatically.

 

[Leo red]

Be practical. Drones will be in millions by then. What this fighters will do fight with drones on air? Watch Ukraine show. What airforce is expecting? Lots of enemy fighters entering air contested space or our fighters entering in enemy space against dominating anti air powers like china. Most of work will be done by thousands of hypersonic missiles. During war our army will have only one call too many drones coming against ground troops and tanks. And air force fighters will be searching drones in sky? During peace time we need large amount of drones for Surveillance as well as secret missions.

 

[P2S2]

Be practical. Drones will be in millions by then. What this fighters will do fight with drones on air? Watch Ukraine show. What airforce is expecting? Lots of enemy fighters entering air contested space or our fighters entering in enemy space against dominating anti air powers like china. Most of work will be done by thousands of hypersonic missiles. During war our army will have only one call too many drones coming against ground troops and tanks. And air force fighters will be searching drones in sky? During peace time we need large amount of drones for Surveillance as well as secret missions.

Area Denial. That's what our Tejas will be. A single Teja controlling denial of an area using many different tools. Enemies will try exhaust our projectiles on lower value offensives. Training is fundamental, quick thinking and changing tactics mid way etc. Different kind of game. Facing AI in real life, death scenarios. Lasers, magnetic waves saturating same area. Very high skills will be required not to get fried from friendly fire. Playing hide and seek through denied space will produce future heroes. The quicker we imagine unknown situations, the quicker we will be able to produce programed wares answers.

 

[Rinku Pandey]

I salute the vision of current Govt and IAF. Dare is to Do. I'm convinced that 60 squadrons can be achieved by 2047. If US can produce more than 100 F35s in a year, Bharat can easily produce 36 per year. Govt has restructured DRDO making it an efficient organization.

 

[P2S2]

I salute the vision of current Govt and IAF. Dare is to Do. I'm convinced that 60 squadrons can be achieved by 2047. If US can produce more than 100 F35s in a year, Bharat can easily produce 36 per year. Govt has restructured DRDO making it an efficient organization.

We should start training future Field Marshalls now and give each a project to stich together and produce results. Those who deliver success would become our spares. Start a U. I., University of Innovations get youngsters to imagine scenarios. With our diversity and diverse heritage we will be able to create miracles.

 

[Anant]

I salute the vision of current Govt and IAF. Dare is to Do. I'm convinced that 60 squadrons can be achieved by 2047. If US can produce more than 100 F35s in a year, Bharat can easily produce 36 per year. Govt has restructured DRDO making it an efficient organization.

The US has committed or planned orders for almost 4,500 F-35s. Get an order even a third of that, and then we can try 36 jets a year.

 

[P2S2]

The US has committed or planned orders for almost 4,500 F-35s. Get an order even a third of that, and then we can try 36 jets a year.

Once Trump has finished signing stop work Presidential orders, he will start issuing start work in India orders. Masala in the US will get 100% taxed and it will become better for those Masala eaters to get Hero grinded Masala minus the bullock tails fly deposits fresh right here in lovely Bharat.

 

[Pankaj]

That sounds good. Is there any plan from the IAF to have an indigenous engine in the coming 5-6 years? If not, no dream is going to be fulfilled, and it will become a daydream. As no country is ready to share the marvelous technology of aircraft engine manufacturing, hence, it's the time when we need to put all our resources, abilities, and money into indigenous engine development. The first step is to develop the complete ecosystem for Kaveri engine derivatives testing and analysis. It's a matter of sorrow that we still lack a testbed for the Kaveri engine, and all the time, we have to go to Russia for testing and analysis.

This is a highly unacceptable approach from the higher authorities of the Indian defence sector.

Now it's the time to engage ISRO, HAL, GTRE, DRDO, Godrej Aerospace, and other interested private parties to develop an indigenous aircraft engine.

 

[Kira]

I believe this is just hype and not a real aim, as it runs against the reality of available resources and even production capacity. Plus, it ignores the increasingly crucial role played by non-jet assets like force multipliers (AWACS and tankers) and, not to mention, future UCAVs, etc. Plus, the offensive power gained by tactical missiles and long-range, accurate artillery is not even considered here.

Finally, the IAF is not taking into account (at least going by this article) that the IN itself would retain substantial combat jet strength in the future, nor does it take into consideration that today's combat jets, let alone future ones, possess massive combat prowess over 1950s jets in terms of range, payload, speed, and avionics, etc.

PS - I believe in the early 1950s, a GoI study had expressed a need for 60-odd squadrons to secure entire India and its regional interests, but it naturally ignored the IN carrier fleet, plus the capability gains of tactical fighters over the next decades.

 

[De_SECULARISED]

1000 fighters, eh? Let's break this down: The only fighters in service today that will remain in service in 2047 are the Su-30MKI, Rafale, and Tejas Mk 1. Of these, the Su-30MKI fleet will have been partially retired.

Therefore, of the 1,000 jets, we would have (assuming no losses due to crashes for certain aircraft types, which is itself a very optimistic assumption):

• 136 Su-30MKIs (assuming 50% of the fleet has been retired or lost)
• 36 Rafales
• 33-ish Tejas Mk 1s.

All that adds up to about 205 aircraft. Now, in the pipeline, we have 4 Tejas Mk 1 trainers pending from an old order, plus 83, plus 97 Tejas Mk1As (which includes the 10 additional trainers), plus 114 MRFA jets. That is another 298 jets.

Still, even with the pipeline jets added, that brings us to 503 fighters, which is just over 31 squadrons. Essentially, at this point, in terms of replacements, all these new aircraft would only be replacing older jets and reaching today's paradigm.

That leaves another 497 jets. Assuming the plan for 120 Tejas Mk 2s and 120 AMCAs goes through, that is still 237 jets short.

However, none of this accounts for two things: losses and rate of production. Assuming we continue to lose 2-3 jets a year, that is another 65 or so jets (at maximum) we would have to consider. Moreover, even with HAL cranking out aircraft at its best capability, we would find it difficult to crack 24-ish jets a year (and that is assuming HAL can fix its inherent issues completely).

Therefore, in the next 22 years, one can assume a best-case scenario of about 24 jets a year, which translates to 528 new jets. Mind you, that number is optimistic, since we are not producing anywhere near 24 jets in 2025. Assume another 12 jets a year from some private line, and at 40 jets a year, that gives you 792 new jets by 2047. Again, overly optimistic, but let's go with this.

792 new jets plus the 205 retained jets is 997 jets. We still aren't reaching 1,000 jets, and once you account for the 66-ish losses, that brings numbers closer to 930 jets, which is 58 squadrons.

At this point, just focus on 42 squadrons by 2040 and 45-48 by 2047, rather than trying to go crazy.

As depicted by a user, a large order of 300+ Mk2s placed & dividing the same with HAL & a private assembly line would expedite the manufacturing process. With both churning out ~40 fighters/year. This way, we could replenish & overcome the dwindling fighter numbers faster.

For that, indigenous engine manufacturing needs to be in place; without that, the dream is impossible to achieve. Negotiate hard with the OEM or invest heavily in R&D, analyze how we have to get it done in India.

 

[R. Singh]

Sort out engine issues and make fighter jets as India wish ! Start making GE-414 engines in India for MWF,ORCA and Tejas-1A ,upgrade Tejas-1A with Ge-414 engine ! Seek Russian engine tech to power AMCA and other future fighter jets ! HAL+ PVT firms consortium should make 48 fighter jets per year !

 

[P2S2]

I believe this is just hype and not a real aim, as it runs against the reality of available resources and even production capacity. Plus, it ignores the increasingly crucial role played by non-jet assets like force multipliers (AWACS and tankers) and, not to mention, future UCAVs, etc. Plus, the offensive power gained by tactical missiles and long-range, accurate artillery is not even considered here.

Finally, the IAF is not taking into account (at least going by this article) that the IN itself would retain substantial combat jet strength in the future, nor does it take into consideration that today's combat jets, let alone future ones, possess massive combat prowess over 1950s jets in terms of range, payload, speed, and avionics, etc.

PS - I believe in the early 1950s, a GoI study had expressed a need for 60-odd squadrons to secure entire India and its regional interests, but it naturally ignored the IN carrier fleet, plus the capability gains of tactical fighters over the next decades.

We weren't requested then to provide cover in other theatres. Now it looks like we will have to cover much more than just our territory.

 

[Hari Sud]

By 1947, there will be no need for combat aircraft in large numbers. It will be all drones of various types.

 

[Sandeep]

So far the industry has failed to develop and manufacture the jets despite large orders being placed. Relying on just HAL alone has delayed its promised production commitments.

The only solution is to get several private sector companies to manufacture the jets entirely in India from indigenous raw materials.

 

[DS]

Why is the IAF requesting for 60 squadrons ?

The defence policy of India currently requires the Indian Armed Forces to successfully meet all challenges upto a thousand miles from our International Borders.

Drones are useful for combat situations in areas of concern . Aircraft will always be required for all types of missions in our vast spheres of influence over land sea and oceans.

We therefore need to upgrade our production capabilities at home rapidly in public and private sector factories.

The race is on .

 

[Anant]

As depicted by a user, a large order of 300+ Mk2s placed & dividing the same with HAL & a private assembly line would expedite the manufacturing process. With both churning out ~40 fighters/year. This way, we could replenish & overcome the dwindling fighter numbers faster.

For that, indigenous engine manufacturing needs to be in place; without that, the dream is impossible to achieve. Negotiate hard with the OEM or invest heavily in R&D, analyze how we have to get it done in India.

Taking the Tejas Mk 2 order to 300 jets is easier said than done. In any case, the chances of getting both a PSU line and a private line hitting over 20 jets a year each is quite low. This is simply because it is difficult to justify setting up a line capable of manufacturing 20 jets a year for an order of just 150-180 jets (two lines, so halve the order).

 

[Dredd]

Assuming the plan for 120 Tejas Mk 2s and 120 AMCAs goes through, that is still 237 jets short.

So, in 2047, we will have a 12% 5th-generation fleet, while the USA will be 90% 5th-6th generation, and China will have approximately a 65% 5th-6th generation air force. I think the Air Force also accounts for Ghatak in its 1000-jet planning, which should be close to 200 in number.

 

[Rama Hota]

By 2047, all fighter planes should be 5th generation, and some 6th generation fighter planes will be needed.

The IAF is very slow in new fighter plane induction. Still, we are struggling with the induction of 4.5 generation fighter, like Rafale.