IAF's Fighter Jet Acquisition On Par With Retiring Jets, Less Possibility of Squadron Shrinking to Pakistan Size by 2035

The Indian Air Force (IAF) is currently navigating a crucial period of modernization, balancing the retirement of older fighter jets with the acquisition of new aircraft, all while maintaining operational readiness in a complex regional security environment.

A recent projection by India Today suggested the IAF's fighter squadron count could decrease significantly by 2035, potentially reaching parity with the Pakistan Air Force (PAF). However, a closer examination reveals a more nuanced picture, factoring in ongoing and planned acquisitions.

The projection warned that the IAF could be operating as few as 25 fighter squadrons by 2035. This scenario assumes the scheduled retirement of aging aircraft like the Jaguar, MiG-29, and Mirage-2000 over the next decade, without immediate, sufficient replacements.

Such a reduction would bring the IAF's squadron numbers level with the PAF, which currently fields 25 squadrons. This is a concerning prospect given India's need to maintain a strong deterrent posture, particularly along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with China.

The concern stems from the planned phase-out of legacy aircraft. The IAF currently operates approximately 31 squadrons, below its sanctioned strength of 42. The retirement of MiG-21 squadrons in recent years has already strained resources.

The Jaguar, MiG-29, and Mirage-2000 fleets, inducted between the late 1970s and early 1990s, are approaching the end of their service lives. The retirement of these – approximately six Jaguar, three MiG-29, and three Mirage-2000 squadrons – could mean a loss of up to 12 squadrons, potentially reducing the total to 25 by 2035.

This calculation accounts for the planned delivery of 83 Tejas Mk1A aircraft by 2029, built by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL). With each squadron typically comprising 18 aircraft, these 83 jets would constitute roughly four to five squadrons, providing a partial offset to the retiring fleets.

Crucially, however, the initial assessment does not include several other planned acquisitions and development programs that could significantly impact the IAF's future force structure.

Several key initiatives are underway that could prevent a drastic reduction in squadron numbers:

• Additional Tejas Mk1A Procurement: The IAF intends to order an additional 97 Tejas Mk1A aircraft, beyond the 83 already contracted. If finalized, this would add another five squadrons by the early 2030s. The Tejas Mk1A represents a significant step in India's defense indigenization efforts, boasting improved avionics, an Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar, and enhanced combat capabilities.
• Tejas Mk2 Development: The Tejas Mk2, a more advanced version with increased payload capacity and range, is slated for production by the late 2020s. Current estimates suggest that 40-50 Tejas Mk2 aircraft could join the IAF by 2035, adding two to three squadrons. The Tejas Mk2, powered by the GE F414 engine, is designed to replace the Mirage-2000 and Jaguar, offering a substantial capability upgrade.
• Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) Tender: The long-standing MRFA tender for 110 aircraft is a critical factor. This program, featuring contenders like the Dassault Rafale, Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornet, and Eurofighter Typhoon, could potentially add six squadrons if finalized and delivered within the next decade. The MRFA aims to fill the capability gap created by retiring aircraft, ensuring the IAF maintains its multi-role operational edge. According to Janes defense a British open-source defence intelligence information provider, The MRFA program is designed to replace several aircraft nearing the end of their operational lives and will supply the majority of aircraft over the next 15 years.

Comparing the IAF's potential future strength of 25 squadrons directly to the PAF's current 25 squadrons is an oversimplification. While numbers matter, qualitative differences are crucial.

The PAF's fleet consists of older F-16s, JF-17s (jointly developed with China), and Mirage III/V aircraft. Many of these lack the advanced avionics, stealth capabilities, and network-centric warfare capabilities found in modern IAF platforms like the Rafale, Su-30MKI, and the forthcoming Tejas variants.

Furthermore, India's strategic requirements extend beyond those of Pakistan. The IAF must be prepared for a potential two-front conflict involving both Pakistan and China.

The People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) of China operates a significantly larger force, with over 50 fighter squadrons, including advanced aircraft like the J-20 stealth fighter. While maintaining a sufficient number of squadrons is vital for deterrence, a holistic view of air power – encompassing technology, training, and operational doctrine – is essential.

Therefore, although squadron number reduction is a serious concern, the situation is less dire than a simple numerical comparison suggests, thanks to ongoing modernization efforts.

 

[Nahian Ramim]

Yes, they are only at 78, as against the 250 plus orders initially proposed (during FGFA talks). Instead, Russia ordered over 100 extra Su 35. So they legit cancelled Su57 orders and went for additional Su35.

As for Rafale, IAF tested Su57, and in 2018 decided that they wanna pursue MRFA instead of FGFA. They literally left after investing 300 million USD.

So both India and Russia openly declared that Su57 is a fake fifth gen plane and is worse than 4th gen planes. Literally, you can't get clearer than that.

The order cuts were mainly due to cost reasons, as there were no foreign buyers. Also, India leaving the project was another main reason. The transfer of technology, which at the time the Russians were unwilling to do, was a factor; they wanted India to be an investor, not a partner, just like the UAE. If Russian equipment is bad, then BrahMos is nothing but a copy of the P-800 with some minor changes, in which India had nothing to do.

Anyways, these are all theoretical, both yours and mine. Rafale only saw combat in Syria, while the same is true of the Su-57, maybe even Ukraine. I mean, we don't know, do we?

The Su-57 has one big advantage, and that is its modular design. And if it can be produced in India, then why go for a limited number of Rafale? What India needs now is quantity.

 

[Akshat]

The order cuts were mainly due to cost reasons, as there were no foreign buyers. Also, India leaving the project was another main reason. The transfer of technology, which at the time the Russians were unwilling to do, was a factor; they wanted India to be an investor, not a partner, just like the UAE. If Russian equipment is bad, then BrahMos is nothing but a copy of the P-800 with some minor changes, in which India had nothing to do.

Anyways, these are all theoretical, both yours and mine. Rafale only saw combat in Syria, while the same is true of the Su-57, maybe even Ukraine. I mean, we don't know, do we?

The Su-57 has one big advantage, and that is its modular design. And if it can be produced in India, then why go for a limited number of Rafale? What India needs now is quantity.

Well actually Brahmos has much better sensors than P800. Also, P800 is not Russian but Soviet in origin.

Now coming to Su57. It wasn't due to cost, as Russia claims that Su57 costs about the same as Su35. So that is not the reason. And ToT was again not a reason. Because IAF has clearly stated that they will consider buying the platform off the shelf if it meets the requirements and joins Russian Air Force, which shows that ToT was never a sticking point and even off the shelf purchases were acceptable. This statement, later on, was modified to a definitive no from IAF. So it is clear that the capabilities of the plane are the sole criteria.

And Rafale also saw combat in Libya buddy. While US and UK were not sending planes into the combat zone without EW planes as escort, Rafale was flying on it's own, showcasing it's effectiveness against SAM systems (which were of Russian origin). As for Su57, what we do know is that Russia has performed miserably. So either Su57 wasn't used or it performed rather badly. Both don't augur well.

And indeed, India needs quantity and IAF is clear that it don't want Su57. And that stance hasn't changed since at least 2018. So that stance is from the GoI as well, not just one IAF chief or IAF itself. Hence, at least till 2029 it is unlikely to change. GoI has actively worked to reduce Russian imports and their share has fallen by more than half. So Su57 is guaranteed to be rejected and a bulk production of Rafale is more or less guaranteed. This is because we already have Rafale, the only better plane (F35) isn't on offer and HAL will never be able to deliver. So sooner or later local production of a huge number of Rafale is guaranteed bro.