India Could Become Largest Rafale Operator by 2040 with Potential 114 Jets Under MRFA and 31 More Rafale M, Predicts Dassault

India could become a global leader in Rafale fighter jet operation by 2040, potentially surpassing even France, according to projections by Dassault Aviation. This ambitious forecast comes as India steadily expands its Rafale fleet, with the Indian Air Force (IAF) already operating 36 jets and the Indian Navy set to acquire 26 Rafale M naval variants.

Dassault, the French aerospace manufacturer, believes India's Rafale numbers could swell to 176 if the IAF selects the jet for its 114-aircraft Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) competition. The company has offered to manufacture Rafales in India, sweetening the deal with technology transfer and local job creation.

Adding to this, Dassault anticipates further demand from the Indian Navy, potentially for 31 additional Rafale Ms. This would bring India's total to over 200 Rafales, eclipsing the French Navy's current fleet of 46 and potentially even the French Air Force's 185 jets.

This surge in Indian interest follows a period where the Rafale struggled to gain international traction. Despite its advanced capabilities, high costs deterred potential buyers. However, India's 2012 decision to purchase 36 Rafales marked a turning point, boosting the jet's global profile and leading to subsequent orders from countries like the UAE.

Dassault emphasizes the Rafale's versatility and weapon carrying capacity, including Meteor beyond-visual-range missiles, SCALP long-range standoff missiles, and Exocet anti-ship missiles. These capabilities are seen as crucial for India to counter regional threats and maintain air superiority.

While the Rafale's high price tag has drawn criticism, Indian Air Force officials maintain that the jet's advanced weaponry and performance justify the cost. They highlight the Rafale's ability to counter threats like Pakistan's AMRAAM missiles and provide India with a long-range strike capability.

The potential expansion of India's Rafale fleet underscores the country's growing defence needs and its ambition to become a major regional power. With Dassault's commitment to local production and technology sharing, the Rafale program could also contribute significantly to India's domestic aerospace industry.

 

[Dredd]

Let us wait for 6 months and let the deliveries of mk1a be stable. Many of govt insecurities about tejas will be cleared.

More mk1as and huge no of mk2 is the answer to all our problems.

from 2016 to 2024 only 36-38 tejas has been delivered, Even initially contracted trainers are not delivered, How can you trust HAL on delivery schedule.

 

[Akshat]

Till date maximum no. Of aircraft and helicopter used by armed forces made by HAL. Maximum weapons used by armed forces even our nuclear arsenal design and develop by DRDO... And u want to sell those companies... Great... Ok after shutdown these 2 who will do the job for our country.... Did u think our pvt con. Has the capability to pickup the job where these 2 left and complete it .. boss they.cant even make an ATGM... Forget the project Kusha level project. GOI now encouraging pvt. Cons by providing funds. But to catch up drdo those pvt cons. Need required time as well as change of mindset... So u can't close these 2 by tomorrow and think everything will be go as it is by pvt. Cons. So keep patience... What u want will happen but it takes another 10-15 years.. and also GOI policy and approach towards indigenous product also must stay unchanged during this period. Negative import list must be expanded and in future 90% tenders must be IDDM catagory....

Maximum planes made by HAL. But which other company was even given a chance? L&T got the chance to make K9 and didn’t they succeed? Tata is making planes via ToT. Private companies got the chance and didn’t they make drone swarms? So don’t raise this bogeyman. Turkey had little plane making experience. Yet they started after us, and flew their fifth gen plane while ours is nowhere in sight. True or not? So anyone can start today and still will end up winning against HAL and DRDO. Their existence is not helping us but working in the negative direction. They eat everything and give nothing. Anyone else, literally anyone, can do a better job, given the same set of resources and support.

 

[PKPRS]

Quote the reference to $340 million per jet.

22 Rafale-M F3 and 4 used Rafale-B were quoted $253Mln/item before India specific MODS, Rafale F4.2 with India specific MODs made in India will cost in excess of $350Mln..Denmark already banned and have sanctioned a part to Tejas yesterday because of GOI’s support to Russia, France will follow soon.

 

[kumar]

Dassault is not showing any interest in manufacturing with 100% tech transfer in India. They want to fully own manufacturing facility in India, which is nothing but import ckd kits and assemble here. And without fully commiting, MRFA type order is not going to dassault.

 

[PKPRS]

Yes we should select Rafale but with upgrades like Mac 2.5 speed powered by two 98 KN engines, MUMT capable and can fire, ASTRA, AIM, BrahMos NG series of missiles !

Yes IAF already wanted to replace Rafale radar and engines as it is too slow, all these changes in Rafale would bring the price to $500Mln/Rafale.

 

[PKPRS]

Some thoughts -
1. India needs MRFA given our delays and fleet depletion and obsolescence…2. Rafales are capable multiple role fighters with more enhancements coming…3. India already operates Rafales and hopefully RafalesMs arrive before 2030, so MRO, spares, training, logistics, some local ecosystem in place…4. Rafales are expensive and TOT/offsets are poor…5. Given Dassault order books even if we sign a deal in 2026, the earliest fly away planes (maybe 18) will not arrive before 2030…And any domestic assembly will not be in place before 2033-2035…6. By 2030 Pakistan will operate stealth fighters and China may have 500-1000 stealth fighters, while we will have none…

So where does that leave us, while Tejas 1As, 2s, and AMCAs are delayed with limited scope for acceleration…Russian weapons are geopolitically a problem…US is unreliable and there are strings attached…

Let us scrap MRFA, pour billions into domestic programs including high thrust engine, kaveri2s, standing up a private sector player as the 2nd fighter player with HAL, accelerate and solve GE404, and assemble GE414 by 2028: start scale production of Tejas 2 by 2030 and AMCA by 2035, approve TEDBF by 2025 and start production by 2032…As insurance buy 24-36 F-35As from the Americans by 2030, even if they come with strings attached…

all is good, But GOI doesn’t want to spend $40Bln for a 4th gen platform, we are already capable of making a similar platform locally for 1/6th the price. I like the scrap MRFA part.

 

[Prit]

from 2016 to 2024 only 36-38 tejas has been delivered, Even initially contracted trainers are not delivered, How can you trust HAL on delivery schedule.

The order of 32 Tejas jets was completed by August 2023. Since trainer aircraft needed redesign, CDR, clearance etc before series production, it took some time. Trainer aircrafts are now under series production and last 4 of them will be delivered by March 2025. 1st trainer aircraft was delivered in October 2023.

 

[Anant]

Till date maximum no. Of aircraft and helicopter used by armed forces made by HAL. Maximum weapons used by armed forces even our nuclear arsenal design and develop by DRDO... And u want to sell those companies... Great... Ok after shutdown these 2 who will do the job for our country.... Did u think our pvt con. Has the capability to pickup the job where these 2 left and complete it .. boss they.cant even make an ATGM... Forget the project Kusha level project. GOI now encouraging pvt. Cons by providing funds. But to catch up drdo those pvt cons. Need required time as well as change of mindset... So u can't close these 2 by tomorrow and think everything will be go as it is by pvt. Cons. So keep patience... What u want will happen but it takes another 10-15 years.. and also GOI policy and approach towards indigenous product also must stay unchanged during this period. Negative import list must be expanded and in future 90% tenders must be IDDM catagory....

1. Except for the trainers, the Marut, the Ajeet, specialised versions of the MiG-21, and the Su-30MKI, any other aircraft assembled by HAL should not be counted as having been built in India. Those license production runs had next to no technology transfer. Almost everything was imported, and other than some very basic materials, little was actually manufactured in India.

2. The same holds true for the helicopters up until the Dhruv.

3. This might surprise you, but in terms of number of weapon systems, we still have a larger number of systems either outright imported or built under license, as compared to weapon systems actually developed in India. One really shouldn't count something like the T-72 as being a made-in-India tank.

4. See, both DRDO and HAL need to get their act together. DRDO has been performing, but their performance has been very slow. That needs to speed up. The same goes for HAL.

 

[kurtwallis wallis]

you have Americanophobia

They control the whole world! 65% imported parts "desi" 100% handmade Tejas will die hard; if USA blocks engines and other parts deliveries to HAL!!

 

[PKPRS]

If capability dictates the priorities of MRFA then Rafale is the ideal choice. If cost dictates the priorities then Gripen. Though many may question Gripens capability, in air to air combat equipped with Meteor missiles it will be more than a match for any 4th gen fighter with our adversary.

it’s the opposite, IAF already wanted to replace the radar with UTTAM and the engines with faster engines, this will only add more cost on top of the already ridiculous price that we paid for these Rafales, what is the point, instead, all these changes could be made to barebones MIG-35 and can be made similar to Rafale.

 

[kurtwallis wallis]

Quote the reference to $340 million per jet.

Latest purchase Rafale-M almost 260 millions usd lifetime ops costs per jet. It is of base Rafale F3R standard only! 20% costs escalations for next version F4.2 as already reported by Dassault last year. 25% costs escalation over F4.2 jets base price for make in India; as each and every part manufactured by 100's of manufacturers in India will require Dassault-Thales-Safran global standards certifications! Dassault have already announced 5% overal costs escalations year upon year due to inflations...

 

[Philippe Picard]

They control the whole world! 65% imported parts "desi" 100% handmade Tejas will die hard; if USA blocks engines and other parts deliveries to HAL!!

so you want to be a vassal of USA with russian stuff? Are you aware of your absurd mind?

USA will nor permit you to have F-16 with Russian stuff...Still waiting for their engine?

 

[Philippe Picard]

22 Rafale-M F3 and 4 used Rafale-B were quoted $253Mln/item before India specific MODS, Rafale F4.2 with India specific MODs made in India will cost in excess of $350Mln..Denmark already banned and have sanctioned a part to Tejas yesterday because of GOI’s support to Russia, France will follow soon.

The French will follows Denmark? France is a power in Europe, not Denmark Are you serious? France is an ally of Indiasince your independace and you an ennemy of France and colonized anglo-saxon puppet.

 

[Anant]

For folks who feel MRFA should be cancelled, here is a small spreadsheet I made with prospective production numbers plotted against retirements. Will attach the link in this comment.

A few points to note:
1. A fighter labelled "NGF" is the prospective Next Generation Fighter. This would be something to succeed the Tejas Mk 1A / Tejas Mk 2. How this would look is up for debate.
2. Without MRFA, the IAF is unlikely to reach 42 squadrons strength before the early 2050s (2052 in this scenario). With MRFA, this comes up by a decade to the early 2040s (2042 in this scenario).
3. If we assume a long-term 51 squadron target, then without MRFA, 51 squadrons may be reached in the early 2060s (2062 in this scenario). With MRFA, this can happen by the mid 2050s.

Please let me know what you think. Link is below, and is a Drive link with the Excel file. Please add the http stuff and remove parentheses.

IAF fleet replenishment schedule (MRFA).xlsx

docs.google.com

 

[Akshat]

22 Rafale-M F3 and 4 used Rafale-B were quoted $253Mln/item before India specific MODS, Rafale F4.2 with India specific MODs made in India will cost in excess of $350Mln..Denmark already banned and have sanctioned a part to Tejas yesterday because of GOI’s support to Russia, France will follow soon.

What’s Rafale B? I am assuming you mean Rafale M. And no price has been quoted for it to the media so far. I don’t know if your CCP gave you certain handouts, that’s a different thing.

 

[Akshat]

1. Except for the trainers, the Marut, the Ajeet, specialised versions of the MiG-21, and the Su-30MKI, any other aircraft assembled by HAL should not be counted as having been built in India. Those license production runs had next to no technology transfer. Almost everything was imported, and other than some very basic materials, little was actually manufactured in India.

2. The same holds true for the helicopters up until the Dhruv.

3. This might surprise you, but in terms of number of weapon systems, we still have a larger number of systems either outright imported or built under license, as compared to weapon systems actually developed in India. One really shouldn't count something like the T-72 as being a made-in-India tank.

4. See, both DRDO and HAL need to get their act together. DRDO has been performing, but their performance has been very slow. That needs to speed up. The same goes for HAL.

I don’t know how you can say DRDO is performing bro. CAG’s report on DRDO, under NDA1, has been damning to say the least. Lies, cost overruns, time overruns, mismanagement, they have done it all and at levels unseen in any organization.

 

[desigandu]

For folks who feel MRFA should be cancelled, here is a small spreadsheet I made with prospective production numbers plotted against retirements. Will attach the link in this comment.

A few points to note:
1. A fighter labelled "NGF" is the prospective Next Generation Fighter. This would be something to succeed the Tejas Mk 1A / Tejas Mk 2. How this would look is up for debate.
2. Without MRFA, the IAF is unlikely to reach 42 squadrons strength before the early 2050s (2052 in this scenario). With MRFA, this comes up by a decade to the early 2040s (2042 in this scenario).
3. If we assume a long-term 51 squadron target, then without MRFA, 51 squadrons may be reached in the early 2060s (2062 in this scenario). With MRFA, this can happen by the mid 2050s.

Please let me know what you think. Link is below, and is a Drive link with the Excel file. Please add the http stuff and remove parentheses.

IAF fleet replenishment schedule (MRFA).xlsx

docs.google.com

I also feel that MRFA is needed by IAF given our depletion and inability of domestic capacity/capability, but feel French Rafales - though capable, we already have experience, are too expensive, supply chain constraints and thus may not be available before 2033-2035, lack of TOT, stealth planes with Pakistan/China in numbers, while we will have no stealth capability before 2035...

Given all this we need alternatives that could be a hybrid solution - buy 36 Rafales (besides the 26 Rafale Ms) in fly away condition delivered by 2030 + beg (agree to conditions/strings etc. except giving up S-400s) Americans for 36 F-35s by 2030 + pour billions into GE414/404 local production; high thrust engine; accelerate Tejas Mk2 and AMCA + stand up a private sector player by bankrolling them like with chips to start assembly in 3 years = potential solution...Not perfect but we have to choose between poor choices and risks...

 

[Akshat]

Some thoughts -
1. India needs MRFA given our delays and fleet depletion and obsolescence…2. Rafales are capable multiple role fighters with more enhancements coming…3. India already operates Rafales and hopefully RafalesMs arrive before 2030, so MRO, spares, training, logistics, some local ecosystem in place…4. Rafales are expensive and TOT/offsets are poor…5. Given Dassault order books even if we sign a deal in 2026, the earliest fly away planes (maybe 18) will not arrive before 2030…And any domestic assembly will not be in place before 2033-2035…6. By 2030 Pakistan will operate stealth fighters and China may have 500-1000 stealth fighters, while we will have none…

So where does that leave us, while Tejas 1As, 2s, and AMCAs are delayed with limited scope for acceleration…Russian weapons are geopolitically a problem…US is unreliable and there are strings attached…

Let us scrap MRFA, pour billions into domestic programs including high thrust engine, kaveri2s, standing up a private sector player as the 2nd fighter player with HAL, accelerate and solve GE404, and assemble GE414 by 2028: start scale production of Tejas 2 by 2030 and AMCA by 2035, approve TEDBF by 2025 and start production by 2032…As insurance buy 24-36 F-35As from the Americans by 2030, even if they come with strings attached…

I have already given you the facts multiple times and yet you come back with the same lies. Do you have a hidden agenda in pushing these lies buddy?

 

[Akshat]

all is good, But GOI doesn’t want to spend $40Bln for a 4th gen platform, we are already capable of making a similar platform locally for 1/6th the price. I like the scrap MRFA part.

GoI is the one who has issued the tender. So they are very much willing.

And we are not even able to produce the 4 th gen Tejas mk1a, forget what the cost is. 😂😂

 

[Akshat]

If capability dictates the priorities of MRFA then Rafale is the ideal choice. If cost dictates the priorities then Gripen. Though many may question Gripens capability, in air to air combat equipped with Meteor missiles it will be more than a match for any 4th gen fighter with our adversary.

Gripen is actually costlier than Rafale. And now that we have Rafale, the cost difference is even more stark. Not to mention, Gripen failed the trials in MMRCA. So a failed plane at much higher price…not a wise decision.

 

[Akshat]

it’s the opposite, IAF already wanted to replace the radar with UTTAM and the engines with faster engines, this will only add more cost on top of the already ridiculous price that we paid for these Rafales, what is the point, instead, all these changes could be made to barebones MIG-35 and can be made similar to Rafale.

Yeah, ridiculous price of the L1. We should have gone with L5 according to you. 😂😂😂 And IAF doesn’t want to change a thing in Rafale. They are in love with those birds.

 

[desigandu]

I have already given you the facts multiple times and yet you come back with the same lies. Do you have a hidden agenda in pushing these lies buddy?

Dude - no innuendos please...In any case none of us are decision makers and if social media postings and opinion could make GOI do things - it is pure fantasy...

Key question is/must be - what is good for Bharat, not France, not US not Russia - this is the core assumption, unless someone is paid by foreign powers or nefarious interests to push narratives...

 

[PKPRS]

GoI is the one who has issued the tender. So they are very much willing.

And we are not even able to produce the 4 th gen Tejas mk1a, forget what the cost is. 😂😂

We already produced. Tejas MK1A.

 

[Mayank Shukla]

French won't do ToT but atleast parts will be available when it's wartime.

 

[Mayank Shukla]

It will costs IAF $340 millions usd per Rafale F4.2 jet manufactured locally in India!! Better to select F16 Blk72 on MRFA for Tatas-LM plant in India; and next pursue SU75 co-developments by jv HAL-Sukhoi next...

India won't buy F16 in any avatar, we have Tejas for that kind of capabilities.

 

[PKPRS]

That's the reason why TEDBF is delaying, to give order to France

yes because Navy just realized that Rafale-M has the same Fatigue stress that MIG-29K had while operating in the carrier and are now thinking of going for F/A-18.

"the admission of the French Navy staff itself, the first Rafale M delivered, today show significant signs of fatigue, linked to the specific constraints of their on-board use (landing, marine environment, etc.). It is therefore unlikely that these devices will be able to continue to serve beyond 2030"

 

[Anant]

I don’t know how you can say DRDO is performing bro. CAG’s report on DRDO, under NDA1, has been damning to say the least. Lies, cost overruns, time overruns, mismanagement, they have done it all and at levels unseen in any organization.

I don't quite disagree. In fact, I mostly agree with you. However, DRDO has, even with delays and cost overruns, delivered certain systems. Of course, the efficacy of said systems may have been lesser than what would have been the case fir a timely delivery, but still...

HAL, on the other hand, is on an entirely different order of magnitude of useless.

 

[PKPRS]

What’s Rafale B? I am assuming you mean Rafale M. And no price has been quoted for it to the media so far. I don’t know if your CCP gave you certain handouts, that’s a different thing.

I am taking about the 4 used Rafale-B’s that are part of 26.

 

[Bijaya Kumar Sahu]

Tejas MK2 and Rafael has same payload capacity. So better to focus in Tejas MK2. We can buy few more Rafael till MK2 is ready.

 

[Akshat]

I don't quite disagree. In fact, I mostly agree with you. However, DRDO has, even with delays and cost overruns, delivered certain systems. Of course, the efficacy of said systems may have been lesser than what would have been the case fir a timely delivery, but still...

HAL, on the other hand, is on an entirely different order of magnitude of useless.

I would again disagree. HAL has at least delivered when it comes to foreign systems, albeit with some delays. It has also delivered in rotary planes. And on some engines. Apart from Tejas, I don’t think we have seen such ineptitude when it comes to manufacturing. Yes, things are delayed. But not to the level of DRDO.

And to be frank, I think we are just discussing which among the two zeroes is bigger. Both are utterly useless and we will be better off without them.