Pakistan's Air Force Faces Modernization Dilemma as Aging Fighters Near Retirement

The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) is bracing for a major overhaul in the coming years. With nearly 200 of its fighter jets slated for retirement by 2030, the country's air force finds itself at a crossroads between maintaining its capabilities and the urgent need for modernization.

A Ticking Clock​

The PAF's aging fleet of French-designed Mirage-III/5 fighters, a mainstay of the force, are reaching the end of their lifespan. With the manufacturer having long ceased production of spare parts, the continued operation of these jets becomes increasingly difficult.

Plans to acquire used Mirages for parts haven't materialized, further hindering their long-term use. Similarly, Pakistan's Chinese-built F-7PG fighters are also destined for retirement despite having years of service life left.

Looking to China for Solutions​

To replace its retiring fleet, Pakistan is seeking Chinese-built fighters. The PAF has already received J-10CE jets, but there's hope to eventually add the FC-31, a fifth-generation stealth fighter, to the arsenal. However, this path presents its own set of challenges.

The FC-31, while advanced, isn't considered a true fifth-generation aircraft in the same league as the American F-22 or F-35. It lacks the sophisticated stealth and electronics found in those fighters.

Additionally, plans for local production of the FC-31, which might help improve the aircraft's capabilities, are uncertain and the FC-31 itself remains under development.

The Cost of Modernization​

Cost is another major obstacle for the PAF. Advanced fighters like the JF-17 Block-III, an upgraded version of Pakistan's workhorse fighter, come with a substantial price tag. This financial burden has slowed down further orders of this variant. It's expected that the FC-31 would be even more expensive.

The Challenge Ahead​

The Pakistan Air Force needs to strike a delicate balance between cost and capability as it updates its fleet. While China is a vital partner, its current offerings have limitations, and the country may not have the resources to purchase top-of-the-line fighters in large numbers.

How the PAF manages this challenge will shape its ability to effectively defend Pakistan's airspace in the years to come.

 

[Anurag]

So why are Korean planes not delayed?

They just throw money at it!! And leave the hurdles of long bureaucracy aside

 

[Akshat]

They just throw money at it!! And leave the hurdles of long bureaucracy aside

No corruption scandal has been proven with South Koreans so far. And bureaucracy is just as bad. They are trying to give a loan to Poland but laws don’t allow it and they are trying to change the law but see how long it is taking. Only true difference is that we have DPSUs and they have private companies.

 

[Anurag]

No corruption scandal has been proven with South Koreans so far. And bureaucracy is just as bad. They are trying to give a loan to Poland but laws don’t allow it and they are trying to change the law but see how long it is taking. Only true difference is that we have DPSUs and they have private companies.

Is it only corruption really? I highly doubt that...
Money matters the most(Dpsu less spending time consuming and overall exceeding cost much more than desired but gov backed so facing no issues at all).
Comparison between the South Korean & India is baseless they spend almost 3 times more money on a platform that is 4.5 gen and slowly upgrade it to the 5th gen!! While we say we want the development speed like them but we are not able to spend like them!! Just my assumption surely other factors are also their!!

 

[Shafted mohammed]

PAF is going the way like PIA and soon would have very few planes as old reliable planes gone and new planes either fallen or junked. The Chinese stuff has zero reliability.

 

[kumar]

The truth is bitter but needs to be acknowledged all the same. The process of problem solving starts with acknowledging the existence of issue and accepting that its indeed a problem. We are not going to sort anything if we blissfully shut our eyes and bury our heads in sand like an ostrich.

Use ur head for a change. How many years will u be deriding India and parroting what others say.
Must have really hurt u the first time. Lol.🤣 😂 🤣 .

 

[Official]

I still feel that we neednt jump on the 5th gen fighter bandwagon. Most of the countries that have developed them are still further refining and developing them. We have a capable 4th gen fighter 'Tejas'. 4th gen fighters are here to stay atleast for the next 20 years. Not every country has a 5th gen fighter in thier arsenal. It will take the world 20 years to replace thier 4th gen fighters with 5th gen till that time AMCA would be a much more refined fighter.

 

[Mithu Roy]

Today buying jets is like buying mercedes. how can beggers purchase toys. Earlier their economy was better than ours they had gas to burn and were economically better.now they have become like our bihar and therefore won't afford anything pricy

 

[Anant]

Pak must opt for India’s Tejas

And why exactly would we sell the Tejas to them? No, let them keep banking on their Chinese Junk Fighter 17.

 

[Anant]

Glad to know people are not being optimistic . But if we successfully develop Cats Warrior and achieve 24 jet's per year by 2025 , than i don't think we need to worry . Tejas are already capable enough for jet's like J 10c with it's Astra mk2&3 and Uttam . 2-3 more squadrons of Rafale would have been perfect but now we don't have other option except pressurizing development of Tejas mk2 and TEDBF . If TATA is interested than Rafale M can be very important as TEDBF will take time and so will LCA mk2 . I think China will just use Pakistani air bases if need arises but we can chill for now and celebrate this at least , common that's all you and me can do :]

You are way too optimistic. CATS Warrior is atleast 2-3 years (and maybe even 5) away. Moreover, we physically cannot get to 24 Tejas jets by 2025, since the Nashik line won't be operational until 2026-27. Even if we did have that line operational today, we wouldn't be able to get anywhere near 24 jets a year due to multiple supply chain bottlenecks.

Oh, and by the way, the Astra Mk 2 is about to start full testing, while the Astra Mk 3 is still some time away.

Finally, MRFA is a necessity not from a technological perspective but from a quantitative perspective. We cannot build jets fast enough to reach the required strength of the Air Force (42 squadrons) until the early to mid 2040s at the least, unless we decided to (on paper) scrap that target and order far more, thereby justifying increasing expenses to massively scale up capacity. MRFA is needed to bolster up the number of squadrons.

 

[ABHIJIT APSINGIKAR]

Use ur head for a change. How many years will u be deriding India and parroting what others say.
Must have really hurt u the first time. Lol.🤣 😂 🤣 .

That's the thing I am using my head while u ain't. It's not about deriding India, but accepting faults to start rectification.

You do realise that time and again IAF edge was compromised by a heady mix of poor procurement policy and tardy DRDO, HAL combine that ceased advantage of aewc abd bvr missiles to PAF despite being first to induct in service?

Do u realise that they are producing 25 JF-17 per year since 2015-17? Now they may not be spectacular, but with over 120 airframes already in service it's volume compensates for perceived lack of capability. This production can be scaled to 30 airframes in short order.

When was the last time HAL delivered the full compliment of airframes during delivery? When was last time HAL delivered even half of the 25 airframes? I rest my case, we have a serious problem with highly bereaucratic and ineffective PSU who just keep failing persistently to deliver even agreed upon production volumes as stipulated by contract.

Besides underestimating an enemy is a recipie for disaster. You need to acknowledge enemy strengths and plan accordingly to counter and neutralize them rather than squealing about someones comments deciding our country.

Truth is Pakistan despite being a dump pf an economy has been fairly competent in driving their defense modernization programs. They foresaw the prospect of losing inventory due to phase outs and decommissioning and have planned for it bybalredy placing a large order for JF-17 BLKIII and J-10. Yes in interim the loss of some.squadrons would have an impact, but it wont be as severe as deliveries of PAC JF-17 BLK III have already commenced and J-10 are about to come by end of year. We on other hand are still waiting for contracted LCA MK1A, the first batch of which should have already been delivered as per contract signed in 2021.

 

[Akshat]

Is it only corruption really? I highly doubt that...
Money matters the most(Dpsu less spending time consuming and overall exceeding cost much more than desired but gov backed so facing no issues at all).
Comparison between the South Korean & India is baseless they spend almost 3 times more money on a platform that is 4.5 gen and slowly upgrade it to the 5th gen!! While we say we want the development speed like them but we are not able to spend like them!! Just my assumption surely other factors are also their!!

That’s again a fake claim by DRDO apologists. GoI gives blank check funding to DRDO. Look at Kaveri for example. They asked for 300 crores initially, and we gave them. Then they kept asking for more and we gave them. At last count, we gave them ~2800 crores but they could only spend ~2000 crores. The idiots didn’t even know what to do with the money. And if you read CAG report, this is a common pattern. They ask for a certain amount, then keep increasing it and GoI always sanctions them whatever they ask for. So money or funding is never an issue.

 

[Anurag]

That’s again a fake claim by DRDO apologists. GoI gives blank check funding to DRDO. Look at Kaveri for example. They asked for 300 crores initially, and we gave them. Then they kept asking for more and we gave them. At last count, we gave them ~2800 crores but they could only spend ~2000 crores. The idiots didn’t even know what to do with the money. And if you read CAG report, this is a common pattern. They ask for a certain amount, then keep increasing it and GoI always sanctions them whatever they ask for. So money or funding is never an issue.

Really amount of 2800crores!! Well India will be first nation to develop a fighter jet engine with this minimal amount!
What my take is kaveri program started way back in around 1990 and after these years we don't have a proper working engine maybe in few years we may be able to see a engine working based on kaveri but that took a lot of time man!! I don't care about what they say or not(DRDO) they are gov backed labs so whatever they say it's for the common people, gov & forces already know the truth!!

The thing is this doesn't address my view, we are comparing India with the South Korean.

 

[Lal M Khaidem]

That’s again a fake claim by DRDO apologists. GoI gives blank check funding to DRDO. Look at Kaveri for example. They asked for 300 crores initially, and we gave them. Then they kept asking for more and we gave them. At last count, we gave them ~2800 crores but they could only spend ~2000 crores. The idiots didn’t even know what to do with the money. And if you read CAG report, this is a common pattern. They ask for a certain amount, then keep increasing it and GoI always sanctions them whatever they ask for. So money or funding is never an issue.

There you go again with your untruths..What blank cheque? Give me the cost of any engine development programme by UK, France or USA and what DRDO got as budget..let's talk then

 

[Akshat]

There you go again with your untruths..What blank cheque? Give me the cost of any engine development programme by UK, France or USA and what DRDO got as budget..let's talk then

Why would I? Blank check means what the other person asks for. The government gave them whatever they asked for. More than what they asked for. That means even if they had asked for amounts used by USA or UK, they would have got it. But if they simply can’t use it and don’t ask for it, what can the government do? Government gave them free hand. Show me a single instance where they were told they won’t get the money and then talk.

 

[Akshat]

gov & forces already know the truth!!

Not remotely true. CAG has already given a very very detailed description of how DRDO openly lies to MoD. So even the GoI is kept in the dark about what DRDO does and say. Please read the report. You will get a very good look into the MO of DRDO. No sane Indian can defend DRDO if they read that report.

Coming to the money for Kaveri. Again, the only fact amount is immaterial. Fact is that DRDO asked for it and GoI gave it. And that GTRE couldn’t finish it. Let’s say GoI had given 10 billion USD. So what? GTRE still wouldn’t know what to do. After that 2000-2100 crores, GTRE had no idea at all and were making excuses like FTB etc. When you simply don’t have an engine what good will FTB do? Remember how they ended up blowing the Russian FTB when sent for testing?

Understand this. DRDO asked for a certain sum of money and they were given that. That’s called blank check. No one can answer if GoI would have sanctioned 5000 or 10000 crores more. That is speculation. What we can answer though is that GTRE couldn’t have developed the engine no matter the amount of money sanctioned, because they couldn’t finish what they were already given. That’s the fact bro.

 

[kumar]

That's the thing I am using my head while u ain't. It's not about deriding India, but accepting faults to start rectification.

You do realise that time and again IAF edge was compromised by a heady mix of poor procurement policy and tardy DRDO, HAL combine that ceased advantage of aewc abd bvr missiles to PAF despite being first to induct in service?

Do u realise that they are producing 25 JF-17 per year since 2015-17? Now they may not be spectacular, but with over 120 airframes already in service it's volume compensates for perceived lack of capability. This production can be scaled to 30 airframes in short order.

When was the last time HAL delivered the full compliment of airframes during delivery? When was last time HAL delivered even half of the 25 airframes? I rest my case, we have a serious problem with highly bereaucratic and ineffective PSU who just keep failing persistently to deliver even agreed upon production volumes as stipulated by contract.

Besides underestimating an enemy is a recipie for disaster. You need to acknowledge enemy strengths and plan accordingly to counter and neutralize them rather than squealing about someones comments deciding our country.

Truth is Pakistan despite being a dump pf an economy has been fairly competent in driving their defense modernization programs. They foresaw the prospect of losing inventory due to phase outs and decommissioning and have planned for it bybalredy placing a large order for JF-17 BLKIII and J-10. Yes in interim the loss of some.squadrons would have an impact, but it wont be as severe as deliveries of PAC JF-17 BLK III have already commenced and J-10 are about to come by end of year. We on other hand are still waiting for contracted LCA MK1A, the first batch of which should have already been delivered as per contract signed in 2021.

U forgot conveniently, how IAF added last minute changes to mk1a. What is the use of jf17 when they are being grounded by forces using them. U need to just look around like Myanmar and the likes. Pakis and ch!nese are opaque unlike us. So u tend to get perceptions like that coupled with our sold out media. If still u need to ignore all this and form some opinion based on assumption, u are welcome. And for the record, IAF would not touch jf17 even if they are given for free, due to the unreliability associated with these aircrafts especially ch!nese.

 

[Anurag]

Not remotely true. CAG has already given a very very detailed description of how DRDO openly lies to MoD. So even the GoI is kept in the dark about what DRDO does and say. Please read the report. You will get a very good look into the MO of DRDO. No sane Indian can defend DRDO if they read that report.

Coming to the money for Kaveri. Again, the only fact amount is immaterial. Fact is that DRDO asked for it and GoI gave it. And that GTRE couldn’t finish it. Let’s say GoI had given 10 billion USD. So what? GTRE still wouldn’t know what to do. After that 2000-2100 crores, GTRE had no idea at all and were making excuses like FTB etc. When you simply don’t have an engine what good will FTB do? Remember how they ended up blowing the Russian FTB when sent for testing?

Understand this. DRDO asked for a certain sum of money and they were given that. That’s called blank check. No one can answer if GoI would have sanctioned 5000 or 10000 crores more. That is speculation. What we can answer though is that GTRE couldn’t have developed the engine no matter the amount of money sanctioned, because they couldn’t finish what they were already given. That’s the fact bro.

Well mostly you say about CAG report & like that... I will make sure I am not defending anyone here..
So here I comes to CAG report I will take a example of another country according to Americans F-35 is disastrous program not even to complete all the mission and still it is planets most successful program. Most of the nations operate(going to operate) knowing all the truth!!
Few paper thing is another thing and who operates these birds have different thing to say!!

 

[Akshat]

Well mostly you say about CAG report & like that... I will make sure I am not defending anyone here..
So here I comes to CAG report I will take a example of another country according to Americans F-35 is disastrous program not even to complete all the mission and still it is planets most successful program. Most of the nations operate(going to operate) knowing all the truth!!
Few paper thing is another thing and who operates these birds have different thing to say!!

Again, read the report before commenting. The products I am talking about have not been inducted by anyone. I suggest you read the report before commenting again.

 

[ABHIJIT APSINGIKAR]

U forgot conveniently, how IAF added last minute changes to mk1a. What is the use of jf17 when they are being grounded by forces using them. U need to just look around like Myanmar and the likes. Pakis and ch!nese are opaque unlike us. So u tend to get perceptions like that coupled with our sold out media. If still u need to ignore all this and form some opinion based on assumption, u are welcome. And for the record, IAF would not touch jf17 even if they are given for free, due to the unreliability associated with these aircrafts especially ch!nese.

IAF will ask for moon, does not mean it can be given, now does it? Does the term negotiation mean anything to HAL? or did the MoD blindly accept them without realizing the delays it will cause. I have maintained previously once the contract is signed for a product with frozen specifications, under no circumstances should any changes to baseline specification be accommodated under any circumstances. All the upgrades should have been rolled out as tranche upgrades, which itself can be further subdivided into different block upgrades for smaller upgrades.

The fact that they accepted the changes as a part of first tranche itself, demonstrates HAL has little to no idea about supply chain management and vendor management. Did they not realize that accepting it now will delay the delivery? The reason they accepted it was because they already knew they were running late in delivering MK1A, and they used it to create an alibi for their inability to meet contractual obligations.

The orders for the older specification canopy, body panels and fuselage panels would have already been placed right after contract was awarded in 2021. Yet they accepted those changes. That itself demonstrates a highly irresponsible work culture.

Besides, MK1A is now, but what happened to MKI? Did they ever deliver 16 airframes as contracted? nope never. Through its entire production run HAL never once delivered more than 10 airframes and infact their average deliveries always were in range of 5-7 airframes. It was almost as though they were intentionally not delivering aircraft despite having the capacity to built more.