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Russia is reportedly conducting cost and investment feasibility studies for manufacturing its Su-57 fifth-generation stealth fighter in India. The initiative, reported on by ANI who cited defense sources close to them, and corroborated by news outlets such as TOI and the Economic Times, signals a potential deepening of Russia–India defense cooperation under the “Make in India” framework. New Delhi is understood to be eyeing procurement of two to three Su-57 squadrons, positioning the aircraft alongside the U.S. F-35 as a potential contender for fulfilling urgent fifth-gen capability requirements. While the Su-57 is confirmed to be on offer, there have been no firm offers by the US to sell the F-35 to India, just speculation.
This proposal reportedly includes full localization- leveraging existing HAL infrastructure, particularly at the Nashik facility where Su-30MKIs are already assembled- to reduce investment costs and accelerate production timelines. Russia’s defense export arm, Rosoboronexport, is expected to present a formal proposal outlining technology transfer, local assembly, and possible integration with India’s Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) program.
The timing is strategic: with Indian Air Force squadrons down to about 31 against a sanctioned strength of 42, Russia’s offer could bridge capability gaps while the AMCA matures (expected induction by the mid-2030s). Utilizing HAL’s established production lines could mean rapid operationalization- officials say production could begin soon after Indian approval. However, any deal would hinge on broader strategic calculations, including cost comparisons, long-term autonomy, and risk management amid geopolitical pressures like CAATSA.
In summary, Russia’s latest move- studying the feasibility of Su-57 co-production in India- reflects a nuanced return to strategic collaboration. Offering a pathway for both immediate capability and indigenous industrial growth, Moscow is positioning the Su-57 not just as a fighter jet, but as a potential catalyst for India’s advanced aviation ecosystem. Whether New Delhi accepts it will shape the trajectory of its fifth-gen efforts.
The timing is deliberate. The Indian Air Force is at a historic low of around 31 combat squadrons against the sanctioned 42, even as China is rapidly expanding its stealth fleet. Open-source assessments suggest the PLA Air Force already operates around 200 J-20s and is accelerating the mass-production of them. Estimates range from 30-50 per year upto 100-120 J-20s per year, while development of the carrier-capable J-35 is progressing at pace. On the western front, Pakistan is publicly courting a fifth-gen solution- most likely via Beijing or Ankara, creating the real possibility that both of India’s adversaries could field significant stealth fleets within the next decade. This would leave India severely vulnerable and at risk of being outclassed from both sides.
Against this backdrop, India’s indigenous AMCA program is still in the development pipeline, with a realistic induction window only in the mid-2030s. That leaves a capability vacuum. Moscow’s proposal, therefore, attempts to slot the Su-57 as a stopgap that can be quickly localized, while also serving as an industrial bridge to AMCA. Rosoboronexport is reportedly preparing a detailed roadmap for the same.
However, the Su-57 itself is far from without controversy. Analysts routinely question whether it qualifies as a genuine fifth-generation platform. Its stealth shaping and radar cross-section are often described as inferior to the F-35 and even China’s J-20. While highly classified and speculative, figures by analysts frequently estimate the RCS of the Su-57 to be an estimated RCS of ~0.1-0.3m2 frontal, compared to the F-35's ~0.001-0.005m2 frontal RCS. Its electronic warfare and sensor fusion capabilities are also thought to lag behind Western benchmarks. The Su-57's operational status is also in question. Russia's active fleet is believed to be small, with estimates ranging from 22 to 40 aircraft, many of which are thought to be earlier-production models. These jets are also believed to have a limited role in the conflict with Ukraine, which further casts doubt on their effectiveness and operational readiness. Critics argue that while the Su-57 is a leap forward for Russian aerospace, it may not provide the same survivability against modern air defense networks that a “true” fifth-gen platform is expected to guarantee. For India, that raises the question of whether it is worth investing in an aircraft that could already be behind the curve in contested environments.
Any deal for India to acquire the Su-57 must include extremely stringent tests on whether the Su-57 truly matches up to the claims made by Russia. If signed, the deal is expected to significantly alter the balance of power in South Asia.
Citations: ANI, Times of India, Economic Times, India Today, Moneycontrol
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