The Soaring Cost of Navy's Upcoming 3 Kalvari-Class Scorpene Submarines

The Indian Navy is set to significantly bolster its submarine fleet with talks advancing to acquire three more Kalvari-class (Scorpène) submarines. State-owned Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Limited (MDL) is reportedly in the final stages of negotiation for a deal estimated at a substantial ₹35,000 crore (US$4.19 billion).

While the final price remains subject to negotiations, the projected cost per submarine falls between $1.2 billion and $1.3 billion. This marks a substantial 62% increase compared to the previous six Kalvari-class submarines procured at ₹23,652 crore (US$4.1 billion in 2023).

The new submarines are expected to feature upgraded equipment and sensors, positioning them at the forefront of technological advancements. However, this significant cost increase has raised concerns.

Despite constructing six Kalvari-class submarines in the past, MDL has been unable to boost indigenous content beyond 60%. The reliance on French original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) for critical components remains a major factor driving up the cost.

An upcoming price negotiation committee meeting offers a glimmer of hope for reducing the overall cost. However, the considerable price hike underscores the challenges India confronts in achieving self-reliance in its defense manufacturing sector.

Despite the cost concerns, these upgraded Kalvari-class submarines will substantially enhance India's underwater deterrence capabilities. The Navy's focus on acquiring these modern platforms highlights its commitment to maintaining a robust maritime defense posture in a geopolitically complex region.

 

[Anant]

You hit it at the mark. We are desperate, that is why france is jacking up the price.

Our kalvari production line is vacant, and DRDO Aip needs to be put somewhere, and france knows this.

We have 2 carriers with 3rd one coming by 2030-31, we only have old mig29s for them. Going for F18 is undesirable for us since we are unfamiliar with the aircraft and neither IAF nor navy has operated american fighters before and IAF is already operating rafales.

The way i see it, we have 2 options. Either pay whatever french are asking or we put faith in our domestic production. Go all in. Govt opens check book for DRDO, HAL to go crazy.

We can put all the faith in the world into our domestic production, but the fact remains that we, as of today, have a grand total of 1.5 carrier wings for two carriers.

Moreover, even if one decides to firewall TEDBF development, we aren't getting it until the early 2030s in any case.

 

[Anant]

HAL has improved a lot. We dont see multi year delays any more. Lot of production, R&D, testing infra has been set up over the last 5 years. Tejas mk1a has a 4 month delay only. This is amazing from HAL.

Um, nope. The Tejas Mk 1A is atleast four months behind it's already-postponed deadline. I don't remember the exact figure, but HAL was originally supposed to deliver 3 or so Tejas Mk 1As by March 2023 or so.

Oh, and we haven't received any recent confirmation that the first Mk 1A will be delivered this month, so let's see...

 

[Anant]

Last order it will ever get from, IAF, Navy and Army, it is better to make a diesel electric submarine based on Arihant and install AIP in it instead of ordering more Scorpene, it will cost a fortune.

Boss, the problem with that is we haven't mastered the level of miniaturisation needed for that. Yes, we can, in theory at least, build an SSK version of the Arihant-class. However, to actually make it anything even remotely resembling a decent SSK, we'd have to bring the displacement down to 3,500 tons or lesser (and even that assumes you can switch out the SLBM cells to a decent number of SLCM VLS cells).

Doing that miniaturisation is easier said than done.

 

[sanket]

If our DPSUs r unable to absorb technology even after building so many subs, if unable to exceed 60% indegenisarion, if we r unable to take timely decssions, if we have a shitful burocratic acquision process , than does IN has any other option in face of galloping maritime threats?

They are demanding 62% higher for 40% imported components .

 

[Apocalypse gupta]

Um, nope. The Tejas Mk 1A is atleast four months behind it's already-postponed deadline. I don't remember the exact figure, but HAL was originally supposed to deliver 3 or so Tejas Mk 1As by March 2023 or so.

Oh, and we haven't received any recent confirmation that the first Mk 1A will be delivered this month, so let's see...

HAL chairman has said that deliveries will start in july and 16 jets will be delivered by march 31 2025. And i dont think HAL was supposed to deliver 8 jets by march. They WERE supposed to start delivery in march. The start of delivery is delayed but it does not seems that this delay has impacted the total delivery schedule for entire year.

 

[Apocalypse gupta]

We can put all the faith in the world into our domestic production, but the fact remains that we, as of today, have a grand total of 1.5 carrier wings for two carriers.

Moreover, even if one decides to firewall TEDBF development, we aren't getting it until the early 2030s in any case.

i dont think there is critical fighter shortage in the navy. No one is raising the alarm for that, as is the case for IAF. If navy fighter procurement is delayed by 5 years, i dont think it is major problem. If IAF fighter procurement is delayed by 5 years, that will be HUGE problem.

 

[Apocalypse gupta]

💯 TEDBF will be manufactured by a private company if anyone is interested..

Government is still searching for a private partner for AMCA , hope we find one soon

oh, i have not heard about that. Regarding AMCA, 3 private players have submitted proposals to MoD. Lets see which will be chosen.

 

[Ajath Shri]

This is even more than P75I submarine cost. France is going to extract every single cent from India since this is the last order it will ever get from the navy.

I think India should say to france, either reduce the cost or we cancel naval rafale order. Naval rafale order is also not signed by now, probably due to very high price.

if france is going to act like this, just cancel both orders. Buy more P75I instead of more kalvari, and the domestic AIP can be put in the existing kalvari when they come for refit. As for naval rafale, put that money in TEDBF and order more of them.

The proposed sub is going to equipped with advanced systems as per the article. So the upgradation will come with additional costs . So what's wrong if the costs go up ?

 

[beencensured]

The proposed sub is going to equipped with advanced systems as per the article. So the upgradation will come with additional costs . So what's wrong if the costs go up ?

What is wrong with more cost? Well, it does not help the deal at all, when there is also project 76, and 75i are cheaper.

 

[beencensured]

If both will take time, then best to go for cheaper optiin. Rafale N will cost 2 times as more than Tedbf, especially if we consider that if we dont buy Rafale marine or the marfa jets, and IAF buys Tedbf air force version (ORCA) , this huge order will reduce per unit cost even further.

only drawback i see to this is that HAL will be the one which will have to build all of these jets, which I dont see as big problem since HAL is not building AMCA and can fpcus on 4th gen jets

Another option is twin engine Tejas for air force. It maybe cheaper and better and get a ten ton payload. I did not like HAL proposal of twin engine tejas for navy as there are very limited number of aircraft that could be had. But twin engine Tejas for air-force seem something feasible above orca as can be made quicker. .

 

[beencensured]

This is the price of indecision and delayed implementation. The author is clearly fudging data without presenting a clear picture. The last order for Scorpenes was placed over 20 years ago. So how can you compare prices on a per submarine basis of 20 year old order and shout about increase of 62% for an order now? A timely decision to increase orders about 10 years ago would have given a much better price, not to mention timely deliveries !!

I think it is more expensive then project 75i and 76.

 

[Akshat]

This is even more than P75I submarine cost. France is going to extract every single cent from India since this is the last order it will ever get from the navy.

I think India should say to france, either reduce the cost or we cancel naval rafale order. Naval rafale order is also not signed by now, probably due to very high price.

if france is going to act like this, just cancel both orders. Buy more P75I instead of more kalvari, and the domestic AIP can be put in the existing kalvari when they come for refit. As for naval rafale, put that money in TEDBF and order more of them.

Do we even have the exact price for P75I? For reference, LM was charging well north of 40 billion dollars just for the weapons of attack class subs which France was selling for 8 billion. And to put this current price in perspective, there is a mark up of 60% in 2 decades. Compounded annually, that would be some 2% annually. Even by the low standards of EU this won’t even cover inflation.

As for Rafale, they have emerged as L1. And negotiations are actually going pretty fast. Apparently we have already agreed to the base price. That’s faster than IAF’s negotiations.

 

[Akshat]

Last order it will ever get from, IAF, Navy and Army, it is better to make a diesel electric submarine based on Arihant and install AIP in it instead of ordering more Scorpene, it will cost a fortune.

That’s what you said about Navy order as well. 😂😂

 

[Akshat]

both Rafale-N (with huge order book) and TEDBF (under development) are going to take time. The only concern with TEDBF is, its not proven yet. With our DPSUs we still see delays in 4th gen fighters, while countries like Turkey are progressing very fast with their 5th gen prototypes.

Nopes. Assuming deal signing in 2025, we would get first Rafale before first flight of tedbf. Rafale is in a very very comfortable position regarding production and can even cater much higher orders.

 

[Akshat]

If both will take time, then best to go for cheaper optiin. Rafale N will cost 2 times as more than Tedbf, especially if we consider that if we dont buy Rafale marine or the marfa jets, and IAF buys Tedbf air force version (ORCA) , this huge order will reduce per unit cost even further.

only drawback i see to this is that HAL will be the one which will have to build all of these jets, which I dont see as big problem since HAL is not building AMCA and can fpcus on 4th gen jets

You really think tedbf will be cheaper? 😂😂😂 Tejas mk1a costs almost as much as F35 (per unit acquisition cost only). Tedbf will cost a fortune to us if HaL makes it

 

[Akshat]

HAL has improved a lot. We dont see multi year delays any more. Lot of production, R&D, testing infra has been set up over the last 5 years. Tejas mk1a has a 4 month delay only. This is amazing from HAL.

Not at all.

HAL was supposed to deliver 18 trainers and 3 mk1a by 3 Feb 2024. Till now only 5 trainers have been confirmed. I gen assuming they made 1 plane per month since March (they made only 5 in whole of last year), they would have delivered some 9 trainers by the end of this month. Plus 1 mk1a. They were supposed to deliver 18 trainers and 9 mk1a by the end of this year. So 10 planes (at max) against a commitment of 27. That’s improvement for you?

 

[Akshat]

HAL chairman has said that deliveries will start in july and 16 jets will be delivered by march 31 2025. And i dont think HAL was supposed to deliver 8 jets by march. They WERE supposed to start delivery in march. The start of delivery is delayed but it does not seems that this delay has impacted the total delivery schedule for entire year.

He also said they will deliver the 8 trainers last year (down from the original 18). He had also given in writing to deliver 3 mk1 a by 3 Feb. None delivered. One of his predecessors also promised to start manufacturingLCA mk2 in 2016. In writing. We all know what happened.

And considering that they have to make 18 trainers (only 5 delivered) and they have a max capacity of 16 planes annually, he is clearly lying again.

 

[Rajesh Gonsalves]

Literally tired of such news. This is going for years and nothing has been achieved. This is the biggest drawback of our defence. You talk about aircrafts or ships or submarines. All that is going on is Just Talking. Hope they soon bring everything in reality. On the other hand look at Pakistan, nothing in news but are getting aircrafts, ships, submarines.

 

[Akshat]

You hit it at the mark. We are desperate, that is why france is jacking up the price.

Our kalvari production line is vacant, and DRDO Aip needs to be put somewhere, and france knows this.

We have 2 carriers with 3rd one coming by 2030-31, we only have old mig29s for them. Going for F18 is undesirable for us since we are unfamiliar with the aircraft and neither IAF nor navy has operated american fighters before and IAF is already operating rafales.

The way i see it, we have 2 options. Either pay whatever french are asking or we put faith in our domestic production. Go all in. Govt opens check book for DRDO, HAL to go crazy.

GoI already has opened the check book. Tejas costs almost as much as F35 and we are paying. DRDO gets blank check funding for its projects too. Till the time these institutions are burned to ground, nothing will work.

 

[Akshat]

you have to factor in inflations and the fact that Mk1a jets are much more advanced than mk1. Also, Mk1a is the production variant and the cost includes maintenance, parts, weapons for a number of years. Per unit cost of mk1a is around 50million.

Nope. There are no weapons included in the deal. HAL chairman has specified that the cost per unit after removing ground support and training will be about 68 million USD.

 

[Akshat]

the Frenchies are silent right now let's wait for their rebuttal 😹😹😹

What’s to rebut? 60% escalation in 2 decades. That’s the price escalation we have seen in the last 7-8 years alone. This is a friends and family discount.

 

[Akshat]

They are demanding 62% higher for 40% imported components .

Ever heard of inflation?

 

[Akshat]

Wadafaq Macron ripoff this deal too much for us.... Its acceptable if the increase is 30% because of global inflation but d@mn 62%🙀

30% inflation after 2 decades? Prices have increased by 30% since 2021 itself. He is giving us a massive friends and family discount here.

 

[Akshat]

MoD Must make public all of the offers at hand with the % of ToT offered, lifetime ops costs per vendor per sub etc.. etc.. For, MRFA deal NOBODY have replied to Centre's new requirements of 100% ToT!!

They can only reply when an actual RFI with the details

 

[MANIVANNAN N]

The cost of nuclear attsck sub cost also 1billion so we skip this new scorpene. Build more nuk subs. Indian industry also benefit.

 

[Anant]

The cost of nuclear attsck sub cost also 1billion so we skip this new scorpene. Build more nuk subs. Indian industry also benefit.

Firstly, nuclear submarines cost far more than 1 billion USD. For a 4,000-ish ton SSN, you are looking at a price tag of atleast 2 billion USD, and that is if you build 5-6 boats.

Oh, and we have a SSN design in the works too. It isn't ready for construction yet.

 

[Anant]

Another option is twin engine Tejas for air force. It maybe cheaper and better and get a ten ton payload. I did not like HAL proposal of twin engine tejas for navy as there are very limited number of aircraft that could be had. But twin engine Tejas for air-force seem something feasible above orca as can be made quicker. .

You know you are proposing an entirely new aircraft, right? For someone to put in a second engine into a Tejas will require massive redesigns, design validations and certification, prototype construction, an entire testing regime, and then serial production. At that point, you may as well work on a clean-sheet design and avoid any limitations that a modified Tejas gives to you.

 

[Anant]

HAL chairman has said that deliveries will start in july and 16 jets will be delivered by march 31 2025. And i dont think HAL was supposed to deliver 8 jets by march. They WERE supposed to start delivery in march. The start of delivery is delayed but it does not seems that this delay has impacted the total delivery schedule for entire year.

Akshat has put the correct figure. All 18 Mk 1 trainers plus 3 Mk 1As were due by early February, out of which we have 5 trainers delivered by almost mid-July.

As for statements by HAL's chairman, if the statement today is, say, that the prototype of the Tejas Mk 2 will fly in 2026, and following that, the chairman makes another statement in 2026 saying the first flight will be in 2028, there is a delay here, isn't there?

Shifting goalposts doesn't change the fact that something is delayed.

 

[PKPRS]

That’s what you said about Navy order as well. 😂😂

No it is not official, nothing is signed, they could back off from the verbal order.

 

[PKPRS]

Boss, the problem with that is we haven't mastered the level of miniaturisation needed for that. Yes, we can, in theory at least, build an SSK version of the Arihant-class. However, to actually make it anything even remotely resembling a decent SSK, we'd have to bring the displacement down to 3,500 tons or lesser (and even that assumes you can switch out the SLBM cells to a decent number of SLCM VLS cells).

Doing that miniaturisation is easier said than done.

I am talking about conventional diesel electric submarine based on Arihant design, not SSK.