The Soaring Cost of Navy's Upcoming 3 Kalvari-Class Scorpene Submarines

The Indian Navy is set to significantly bolster its submarine fleet with talks advancing to acquire three more Kalvari-class (Scorpène) submarines. State-owned Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Limited (MDL) is reportedly in the final stages of negotiation for a deal estimated at a substantial ₹35,000 crore (US$4.19 billion).

While the final price remains subject to negotiations, the projected cost per submarine falls between $1.2 billion and $1.3 billion. This marks a substantial 62% increase compared to the previous six Kalvari-class submarines procured at ₹23,652 crore (US$4.1 billion in 2023).

The new submarines are expected to feature upgraded equipment and sensors, positioning them at the forefront of technological advancements. However, this significant cost increase has raised concerns.

Despite constructing six Kalvari-class submarines in the past, MDL has been unable to boost indigenous content beyond 60%. The reliance on French original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) for critical components remains a major factor driving up the cost.

An upcoming price negotiation committee meeting offers a glimmer of hope for reducing the overall cost. However, the considerable price hike underscores the challenges India confronts in achieving self-reliance in its defense manufacturing sector.

Despite the cost concerns, these upgraded Kalvari-class submarines will substantially enhance India's underwater deterrence capabilities. The Navy's focus on acquiring these modern platforms highlights its commitment to maintaining a robust maritime defense posture in a geopolitically complex region.

 

[PKPRS]

That can always happen. But it has been proven that Rafale meets all the requirements and Rafale is the L1.

Everybody knows that can’t fit in the elevator or can accommodate 2 pilots, because of Madi’s bad emotions we had to shed $10Bln to buy only 36 Rafale’s, to fix that one time blunder the military is forced to go for 1.5 more squadron and put a permanent full stop to that nonsense, but the budget is not working out for that also.

 

[ramdas]

Explain what indecision exactly? We just about finished constructing the last Kalvari submarine and after finishing its tests and trials she will be commissioned this year. Last year an agreement was signed when the PM visited France and met Macron that we will make another 3 submarines.

Now they are taking a comprehensive look throughout the entire submarine and looking at what upgrades or technology can be replaced. Then we will agree at the amount of technology will get transferred to us along with the amount of production we make in India. Then we will negotiate a final price and it will take a bit of time but not too long as this is just a repeat order of the original contract for the first 6 submarines.

I think you are mistaken. There was a possibility of placing a follow-up order at the same price which was built into the contract, but government indecisiveness has escalated the costs

 

[Akshat]

Everybody knows that can’t fit in the elevator or can accommodate 2 pilots, because of Madi’s bad emotions we had to shed $10Bln to buy only 36 Rafale’s, to fix that one time blunder the military is forced to go for 1.5 more squadron and put a permanent full stop to that nonsense, but the budget is not working out for that also.

I know you hate India. That’s why spreading these lies like 10 billion for 36 planes and all. But your lies won’t work. Our military just loves the plane. So keep daydreaming.

 

[Akshat]

Well if the French deal has AIP or pump jet propulsion tech it's acceptable price considering the inflation 😺... Look out of all western design countries small subs German and French design are quite good. But nothing beats the dang Japanese weeboos diesel electric subs IMHO

Oh they are just overhyped. They competed directly with the French in Australia and lost the deal. And Germans are said to be even better than French in this field.

 

[Akshat]

I would love Frenchies NAVAL GROUP if they help it go for 70~80% ToT's to win more orders but if they can't give more yummy 😋 offers it's up to Indian Navy to find deals that appealing for us especially if it's bundle with AIP technology kakakakak 😹😹😹

No one can give better deals bro. Remember the original Scorpene deal? France had signed for 0 indigenization. So they charged nothing for it. But then gave 40%. MDL chief is on record saying this. So they gave it for free. Try doing that with anyone else.

 

[Apocalypse gupta]

Fighters and naval aviation are a fairly crucial part of Naval operations, especially in our sphere of operations. The fighter shortage is a crucial concern for the Navy. However, as you pointed out, it is not as crucial a concern for the Navy as it is for the Air Force.

That said, however, the shortage of fighters is a critical problem, especially considering that availability rates will only go down as time marches on.

But, for the sake or argument, let's assume we cancel Rafale M procurement and wait for the TEDBF. I'll also assume the funding saved is diverted towards quicker clearances and the like. In doing so, the earliest you can get TEDBF into enter production is still 2032-33, as opposed to the present 2034-35 target. Factor in production rates, and getting two complete air wings will take you atleast until 2039-40, and that is if one assumes HAL can achieve 100% production efficiency on 12 aircraft per year. Three carrier air wings will take until 2042-43, which potentially leaves IAC-II without aircraft for the first 7-8 years of her service.

The other issue here is that we would be putting too much faith into ADE and HAL. As it is, present programs are highly delayed. There is absolutely no reason that suggests the same wouldn't happen here. If TEDBF starts getting delayed (which is quite probably will), then we have a situation in the late 2030s where the TEDBF is still in testing, and the MiG-29Ks are at the end of their time. That means all three carriers would be confined to staying home without aircraft for years, or just become glorified helicopter carriers.

The problem here is that there is no guarantee that cancelling Rafale M procurement and funneling that money into TEDBF will guarantee getting TEDBF five or so years later (nominally). If it's five years later, well and good. If it's eight years later, eh, we'll manage. If it's ten years later, we are in trouble. If it's more than that, we just shot ourselves in the foot.

I agree with what you said.
I have a question. If we sign rafale marine order today, when do you think we get delivery? I dont think ww get delivery before 2030. There is already severe backlog in rafale delivery.

You yourself said that if we concentrate on tedbf instead of rafale marine, then we get them in 2032-2033. That is a delay of 2-3 years.

I believe that if we dont buy rafale marine, we can spend that money to set up 1 extra production line of tedbf. So our naval fighter deman will be satisfied 2-3 years later, if we dont buy rafales.

Even if there is some delay, it would be 5 years in worst case. And combined with the point regarding criticality, and cost, i believe it makes sense in bigger picture to delay by 5 years but go full steam on tedbf.

Regarding HAL, it would already be full throttle on Tejas mk1a and tejas mk2 by that point. I dont think it will make production delays any more.

 

[Anant]

I agree with what you said.
I have a question. If we sign rafale marine order today, when do you think we get delivery? I dont think ww get delivery before 2030. There is already severe backlog in rafale delivery.

You yourself said that if we concentrate on tedbf instead of rafale marine, then we get them in 2032-2033. That is a delay of 2-3 years.

I believe that if we dont buy rafale marine, we can spend that money to set up 1 extra production line of tedbf. So our naval fighter deman will be satisfied 2-3 years later, if we dont buy rafales.

Even if there is some delay, it would be 5 years in worst case. And combined with the point regarding criticality, and cost, i believe it makes sense in bigger picture to delay by 5 years but go full steam on tedbf.

Regarding HAL, it would already be full throttle on Tejas mk1a and tejas mk2 by that point. I dont think it will make production delays any more.

Boss, if we sign up for the Rafale M today, I have a feeling deliveries would start by 2029-30. As for TEDBF, I am saying that the earliest it can enter production is 2032-33. That has a number of assumptions underlying it, such as the project completing CDR within 6-9 months from now, testing being done quickly, no delays, no problems in testing, etc. Even then, if TEDBF does start production in 2032-33, the first full air wing will take until 2036-37 to arrive (again, very optimistically speaking), the second won't be in until 2040 or so, and the third air wing will come into the picture in 2043-44 only.

Now, by this point, the MiG-29Ks would have to be retired a few years back (2040 at the latest), which still means that we do end up with practically two carriers sitting without aircraft from the second half to the 2030s to the early-ish 2040s. The only saving grace here is that since Vikramaditya would nominally retire around 2043-44, she could, atleast in theory, do without a full air wing in the last 5 or so years of her life.

However, you would have noted that these timelines, which just about fit, are the best case scenario. If anything goes wrong (and believe me when I say it will), we are in trouble.

 

[Apocalypse gupta]

Boss, if we sign up for the Rafale M today, I have a feeling deliveries would start by 2029-30. As for TEDBF, I am saying that the earliest it can enter production is 2032-33. That has a number of assumptions underlying it, such as the project completing CDR within 6-9 months from now, testing being done quickly, no delays, no problems in testing, etc. Even then, if TEDBF does start production in 2032-33, the first full air wing will take until 2036-37 to arrive (again, very optimistically speaking), the second won't be in until 2040 or so, and the third air wing will come into the picture in 2043-44 only.

Now, by this point, the MiG-29Ks would have to be retired a few years back (2040 at the latest), which still means that we do end up with practically two carriers sitting without aircraft from the second half to the 2030s to the early-ish 2040s. The only saving grace here is that since Vikramaditya would nominally retire around 2043-44, she could, atleast in theory, do without a full air wing in the last 5 or so years of her life.

However, you would have noted that these timelines, which just about fit, are the best case scenario. If anything goes wrong (and believe me when I say it will), we are in trouble.

Yki failntonn factir in the fact, that if mwe cancel the rafale marine, that huge amount of money will go into tedbf. The rate of production can be doubled.

The engines in tedbf are gef414, which we will be producing in india. Many subsystems are shared between AMCA, Tejasmk2. Production, parts, maintenance will be very simple.

Also, tanishq bafile told me that he is sure that private company will be building tedbf. That dude is reliable. That takes out HAL from equation, which you are most concerned about

 

[abhinav srivastava]

Def Min will bring down price perhaps to 900 mils usd per sub from 1.3 Billions now asking prices... Must get 6 subs right away as these will have latest AIP, pumpjet propulsions and stealth tech's and other fancy automation features too!

I was not knowing that they are going with pumpjet tech that's great. BTW they are late again. They should have executed this contract when 3rd or 4th sub was constructed in MDL.

 

[wallisk]

If our DPSUs r unable to absorb technology even after building so many subs, if unable to exceed 60% indegenisarion, if we r unable to take timely decssions, if we have a shitful burocratic acquision process , than does IN has any other option in face of galloping maritime threats?

This 1st order for Scorpenes took last 3 decades dude.... 1 decade for talks nego's another 1 decade for placing order and, last 1 decade to build these orders... So, after 30 years costs will be more than double the first order costs per sub really!

 

[wallisk]

Are you surprised.. When Dassault charged more than $1billion just to have indian specific enhancement (mostly software ) and $70 million per mirage upgrae without engine and AESA it was evident that they are leeches , India is too naive to see this. Can some one explain what's the scope of negotiation when you have already finalised someone based on fraudulent L1 bidding , What kind of negotiation involves single party ? The big fat scam of indian defence sooner or later will arise.

How about HAL costs escalations it was just 35 millions usd for one final SP-MK1 LCA jet. But, now for latest MK1A jets of HAL make, it is now 86 millions usd per manufactured jet costs...

 

[Apocalypse gupta]

Boss, if we sign up for the Rafale M today, I have a feeling deliveries would start by 2029-30. As for TEDBF, I am saying that the earliest it can enter production is 2032-33. That has a number of assumptions underlying it, such as the project completing CDR within 6-9 months from now, testing being done quickly, no delays, no problems in testing, etc. Even then, if TEDBF does start production in 2032-33, the first full air wing will take until 2036-37 to arrive (again, very optimistically speaking), the second won't be in until 2040 or so, and the third air wing will come into the picture in 2043-44 only.

Now, by this point, the MiG-29Ks would have to be retired a few years back (2040 at the latest), which still means that we do end up with practically two carriers sitting without aircraft from the second half to the 2030s to the early-ish 2040s. The only saving grace here is that since Vikramaditya would nominally retire around 2043-44, she could, atleast in theory, do without a full air wing in the last 5 or so years of her life.

However, you would have noted that these timelines, which just about fit, are the best case scenario. If anything goes wrong (and believe me when I say it will), we are in trouble.

The cost of rafale marine deal is around 50,000 Crore. 6billion dollars. Which comes to around 230million USD per aircraft. This is too extreme a price.

And tanishq bafila told me that a private company will build the TEDBF. He is a trustworthy guy and knows about these things. So, that takes out HAL from the equation, which you are most concerned about.

If we take the 6 billion we were paying for rafale M, and put it in TEDBF, we can easily get 1 extra production line and get twice the number of TEDBF than we were getting rafales.

It uses same GE414 engine that will be locally made, many components etc will be common with tejas mk2 and AMCA.

There will be a delay in getting first order only, otherwise i dont see any drawback, only advantage.

 

[RalphRearden]

a simple 2% annual inflation in the Euro in 18 years results in 50% price escalation in 20 years, so not much surprising.

If india needs to stop paying arm and leg for every weapon purchase, then they must involve the local pvt sector instead of babus...this is happening but at a slow pace....will take a generation but will happen.....even the armed forces top brass is biased against anything local given their experience with indian equipment when they were junior officers 20 years ago.

 

[Anant]

The cost of rafale marine deal is around 50,000 Crore. 6billion dollars. Which comes to around 230million USD per aircraft. This is too extreme a price.

And tanishq bafila told me that a private company will build the TEDBF. He is a trustworthy guy and knows about these things. So, that takes out HAL from the equation, which you are most concerned about.

If we take the 6 billion we were paying for rafale M, and put it in TEDBF, we can easily get 1 extra production line and get twice the number of TEDBF than we were getting rafales.

It uses same GE414 engine that will be locally made, many components etc will be common with tejas mk2 and AMCA.

There will be a delay in getting first order only, otherwise i dont see any drawback, only advantage.

Boss, I have no love lost for Dassault. The Rafale M is very expensive, no questions. However, and taking Mr. Bafila's statement into account, we still have to remember that considering the response we have seen in AMCA so far from the private sector, I am somewhat sceptical. Even so, if we assume we have a private player leading manufacturing of AMCA, it will still take a fair while.

 

[Anant]

Yki failntonn factir in the fact, that if mwe cancel the rafale marine, that huge amount of money will go into tedbf. The rate of production can be doubled.

The engines in tedbf are gef414, which we will be producing in india. Many subsystems are shared between AMCA, Tejasmk2. Production, parts, maintenance will be very simple.

Also, tanishq bafile told me that he is sure that private company will be building tedbf. That dude is reliable. That takes out HAL from equation, which you are most concerned about

Boss, the rate of production depends more on the order size rather than the money you are willing to throw into the production line. For an order of, say, 150 aircraft, a rate of 15 aircraft a year is practical. To reach 20 aircraft a year, you may need a minimum of 180 orders to justify costs, for instance.

 

[Sandeep]

I think you are mistaken. There was a possibility of placing a follow-up order at the same price which was built into the contract, but government indecisiveness has escalated the costs

No you can’t buy a product in future at the same price that you pay today. You’re saying a glass of chai will cost the exact same price in 5 years time? It’s simple economics as price of materials and staff wages increase year on year. So your point about indecisiveness is wrong and unfounded because no company sells anything at a loss.

 

[NSR]

God bless India and the Indian Navy, and the Armed Forces at large. No two ways about that.

That said, boss, with all due respect, we can of course deploy 16-20 MiG-29Ks to each carrier and call it a day. However, that would hamper operations. Fighters and pilots are trained to operate in a number of groups, and a given carrier air wing size has a doctrine attached to it. If we suddenly downsize the air group, that doctrine needs to be replaced by a new one, which is very time-consuming. Moreover, 16-20 fighters would hamper the effectiveness of the carriers massively.

But, alright. Let's assume for a minute we cancel the Rafale M acquisition and send that money HAL and ADE's way for the TEDBF. The TEDBF is still some time away from the CDR, which is required to sanction funds. With the funds now available, let's assume that CCS approval is received the day after CDR is completed.

Let's also assume that with the extra funding, HAL can get tooling and stuff ready by the time TEDBF prototypes complete preliminary flight testing. These two things are about as much cost crashing as you can bring into the project. Having more funding isn't going to help hasten development in any noticeable manner beyond these.

Now for the pitfalls. HAL and ADE are already working on two aircraft projects with fairly large delays. Adding a third project will only increase that workload, and lead to more delays on all three projects. Secondly, there is no guarantee that the reduction in time will be less than any delays caused. In other words, there is a chance that the delays caused by having three projects going simultaneously will be more than the time savings you get.

There is also the fact that of you decide to deploy 16-20 MiG-29Ks per carrier, you will have to do a lot of training work and the like, which will eat into the remaining life of the jets, which potentially brings their retirement a year or two ahead, from 2038-40 down to 2036-39. Any delays in TEDBF, therefore, could prove to be catastrophic.

Finally, with IAC-II poised to enter service with 2035 or so, if we cancel the Rafale M acquisition and move forward with the TEDBF, production rates mean we won't have three complete air wings until the late 2030s at the very least.

Don't get me wrong. I am very much concerned with how much the Rafale Ms are going to cost us. However, as the timelines stand, I do not see any other options.

" Too speak frankly and succinctly, it is all bad planning and execution on parts of GoI, MoD, and Indian Navy in equipping the A/Cs. "

All in a day of discussions. We will await the costs of Rafale-Ms and Additional 3 Scorpenes, etc

One thing is for sure that France/Dassault, Safran, Thales, Naval Systems, Airbus, etc stick stubbornly to their Mantra of sell ready made at exorbitant prices, upgrade them at ridiculous prices like Mirage-2000s, promise a lot and deliver nothing like offsets, Kaveri engine help, etc

They all stick with their own MSME OEMs like a Bakht

One exception is Naval Systems and Airbus at least letting India build the DABBAs for Scorpenes and C295s.
We ordered tens of billions of Airbus planes but not Final Assembly Plant in India but they gave two FATs to criminal china.

Surely we are between a rock and hard place.

 

[Dredd]

How about HAL costs escalations it was just 35 millions usd for one final SP-MK1 LCA jet. But, now for latest MK1A jets of HAL make, it is now 86 millions usd per manufactured jet costs...

you are wrong here mate, Tejas Mk1a cost is around $72 million if you consider whole deal (48000 crore) , The jet cost is approx $50 million and rest is support and infra costs.

 

[kumar]

Get the p75i done with hdw quickly with full tot and start working on p76 as soon as possible.

 

[Utopian]

French are now doing same to india what Russians did.
selling products at inflated rates, promising tech, but no actual tech or meaningful offsets

 

[Apocalypse gupta]

Boss, the rate of production depends more on the order size rather than the money you are willing to throw into the production line. For an order of, say, 150 aircraft, a rate of 15 aircraft a year is practical. To reach 20 aircraft a year, you may need a minimum of 180 orders to justify costs, for instance.

So if 150 Tedbf order is given for 15 aircraft per year, after cancelling rafale marine order, it is totally fine in my opinion. We dont need 20-25 tedbf per year. If ORCA gets approved after MRFA is cancelled, order size will double, then we can add 1 more production line to take it to 25 jets per year.

 

[Apocalypse gupta]

Boss, I have no love lost for Dassault. The Rafale M is very expensive, no questions. However, and taking Mr. Bafila's statement into account, we still have to remember that considering the response we have seen in AMCA so far from the private sector, I am somewhat sceptical. Even so, if we assume we have a private player leading manufacturing of AMCA, it will still take a fair while.

do you know what was the performance of HAL on building Su30MKI, upgrading mirage or other such stuff (non indegenous design related work) were there delays in delivery? I think the reason for delay in tejas mk1 and mk2 programs is that we are designing and testing everything ourselves. These are growing pains. Once we get used to this, I dont think we will see delays again.

 

[Rajesh]

the Frenchies are silent right now let's wait for their rebuttal 😹😹😹

They will pop up . Now there r two new ones .

 

[Rajesh]

I would love Frenchies NAVAL GROUP if they help it go for 70~80% ToT's to win more orders but if they can't give more yummy 😋 offers it's up to Indian Navy to find deals that appealing for us especially if it's bundle with AIP technology kakakakak 😹😹😹

To the max one more rafael watch that is the maximum limit of tot. The Australians had to run or keep feeding them like us.

 

[Rajesh]

French are now doing same to india what Russians did.
selling products at inflated rates, promising tech, but no actual tech or meaningful offsets

They have been doing the same from the beginning itself it is just that we were reluctant to buy American platforms due to political apprehensions and french utilised the space to loot us . The mirage 2000 upgrades is the biggest loot done by a foreign OEMs with the help of our dpsu .

 

[Anant]

do you know what was the performance of HAL on building Su30MKI, upgrading mirage or other such stuff (non indegenous design related work) were there delays in delivery? I think the reason for delay in tejas mk1 and mk2 programs is that we are designing and testing everything ourselves. These are growing pains. Once we get used to this, I dont think we will see delays again.

How has HAL's performance been on the Su-30MKI? Pretty bad, if you dive into it. Here's why:

1. HAL was originally supposed to deliver the 180 aircraft initially contracted to it (the first 50 were built in Russia and the last 42 were a separate order later on) by 2015. They delivered those aircraft by 2017 only.

2. The order for 42 aircraft was signed in 2012, with the idea being to have all aircraft ready by 2018-19. The last of these was only delivered in March 2021.

3. The GM of HAL's Aircraft Manufacturing Division had stated back in 2009 that the aircraft would be fully indigenised by 2010. Leave alone 2010, HAL crossed 80% indigenisation in 2018, and as far as I have been able to find, never actually reached 100% indigenisation outside the engine. In fact, HAL will probably only reach 100% indigenisation (again, with the exception of the engine) with the Super Sukhoi program.

So, all things considered, pretty bad performance.

Secondly, when you say something like "If we cancel MRFA and pump that money into Tejas Mk 2 and other programs, then our production rates will soar", you are missing one very important point: Supply chain expansion constraints. Fighters have lakhs of sub-components, and hundreds of vendors. Not every vendor is going to be able to scale up from 10 to 100 in half a decade if you place the orders with them. Scaling up aircraft manufacturing takes a long time. Therefore, mark my words: Even if we were to place an order for 1,000 jets (Tejas Mk 1A + Tejas Mk 2 + AMCA + TEDBF combined) at any one point, our production numbers would still sit at 30-40 jets at most a year for the better part of two decades before they start going up again.

 

[PKPRS]

I know you hate India. That’s why spreading these lies like 10 billion for 36 planes and all. But your lies won’t work. Our military just loves the plane. So keep daydreaming.

Does your lies work.

 

[Akshat]

Does your lies work.

Well Indian Navy is already negotiating for Rafales and Kalvari. Truth or lie the work is surely getting done.

 

[wallisk]

Wadafaq Macron ripoff this deal too much for us.... Its acceptable if the increase is 30% because of global inflation but d@mn 62%🙀

Must be for Pumpjet propulsions and AIP perhaps...??