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In a significant geopolitical pivot, Turkey appears poised to divest itself of its Russian-made S-400 air defence batteries to secure readmission into the American-led F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program.
Recent reports indicate that negotiations have accelerated, with officials suggesting a resolution to the long-standing dispute could be reached within months.
The diplomatic standoff, which began in 2019 when Ankara was expelled from the F-35 consortium following its purchase of the S-400, may be nearing its end.
US Ambassador to Turkey, Tom Barrack, recently indicated that the impasse could be resolved in "four to six months," provided Turkey relinquishes the controversial Russian hardware.
This potential agreement would mark a major realignment for Turkey, which had originally planned to purchase 100 of the stealth fighters before its expulsion.
The Fate of the Russian Systems
The central challenge in these negotiations is determining the physical destination of the S-400 batteries. Washington has made it clear that simply returning the systems to Russia is not a viable option.Such a move would be viewed as a violation of US sanctions and could provide Moscow with a propaganda victory by portraying a NATO member as capitulating to American pressure to return military equipment.
Instead, the United States may propose taking custody of the S-400 units for "research and evaluation" purposes.
This would allow American defence analysts to conduct an in-depth study of the system's radar frequencies, missile capabilities, and data links—an intelligence boon that would significantly enhance countermeasures against Russian air defence technology.
Alternatively, the systems could be transferred to a neutral third country, although this path remains fraught with legal complexities regarding end-user agreements.
The India Factor
The shifting dynamics have led to speculation regarding other S-400 operators, specifically India.With New Delhi already operating three S-400 regiments under a $5.43 billion agreement with Moscow, some observers have questioned whether India could be a recipient of Turkey’s discarded units. However, defence analysts consider this scenario highly improbable.
Technically, India possesses a distinct advantage. The S-400 systems supplied to India are understood to be of the same high-specification configuration used by the Russian Armed Forces.
In contrast, the units delivered to Turkey were reportedly an export variant with downgraded capabilities, a precaution Russia likely took to prevent sensitive NATO assets from gathering data on its top-tier radar signatures.
Consequently, New Delhi would have little strategic interest in acquiring inferior, second-hand equipment.
Furthermore, geopolitical realities make such a transfer unfeasible. India has meticulously insulated its defence relationship with Russia from broader tensions between Washington and Moscow.
Accepting Turkey's S-400s—especially through a deal brokered by the US—would likely provoke friction with the Kremlin, a key supplier of India's strategic weaponry.
Additionally, it is unlikely that Russia would consent to such a transfer, as it would expose the technical disparities between the systems sold to different nations.
A Complex Resolution
As Turkey manoeuvres to rejoin the F-35 program, the S-400s have evolved from a prized military asset into a diplomatic bargaining chip. The resolution of this issue will have lasting implications for NATO interoperability and the balance of air power in the region.Meanwhile, nations like India continue to watch from a distance, secure in the independent operation of their own advanced air defence networks, unaffected by the diplomatic turbulence involving Ankara and the West.
