US F-15EX and F-21 Jets Hold Production Rate Advantage in India's MRFA Tender, Look at What Other Contenders can Deliver

India's Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) competition is heating up, with global aerospace giants vying to supply the Indian Air Force (IAF) with its next generation of fighter jets.

While technological prowess and capability are paramount, production rate is a critical factor that can significantly impact the timely delivery and overall success of the program.

The IAF seeks to rapidly modernize its fleet and maintain a steady acquisition timeline. This necessitates a supplier with the capacity to meet India's ambitious requirements. Let's examine the production capabilities of the leading MRFA contenders:

American Muscle: F-15EX and F-21​

• F-15EX (Boeing): Boeing's F-15EX, the latest iteration of the iconic F-15 Eagle, benefits from existing production lines and modernization efforts already underway for the US Air Force. Boeing's St. Louis facility can churn out 24 to 36 F-15EXs annually, with the potential for rapid expansion.
• F-21 (Lockheed Martin): Lockheed Martin's F-21, a customized variant of the F-16 specifically designed for India, leverages the company's vast experience in high-rate F-16 production. Lockheed Martin has delivered 30-40 F-16s per year at peak production and proposes establishing an Indian production line in collaboration with Tata Advanced Systems, further boosting potential output.

European Contenders: Rafale and Typhoon​

• Rafale (Dassault Aviation): Dassault Aviation, manufacturer of the Rafale, currently produces 11-15 aircraft per year. While Dassault has consistently met delivery schedules, it operates on a smaller scale than its American counterparts and currently has a production backlog due to 180 Rafale jets order from countries including Egypt, Greece, the UAE, and Indonesia. To meet India's ambitious acquisition timeline, Dassault would need to significantly ramp up production or establish an Indian assembly line.
• Typhoon (Eurofighter GmbH): With a peak production rate of 20-25 aircraft per year, the Typhoon's production capacity fluctuates based on demand from partner nations. While flexible, establishing a new production line in India would require significant investment and time.

Swedish and Russian Entries: Gripen and Su-35​

• Gripen E/F (Saab): Designed for rapid scale-up, Saab currently produces 16-20 Gripen E/F jets per year. The proposed technology transfer and local production line in India could significantly increase this capacity.
• Su-35 (United Aircraft Corporation): Russia's Su-35 faces production limitations due to lower demand and a focus on the newer Su-57. The United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) can produce 10-15 Su-35s annually, but significant expansion would be needed to meet India's requirements.

The American Advantage​

Based on current production capabilities, the F-15EX and F-21 emerge as frontrunners, offering the highest production rates among the contenders. The Gripen E/F and F/A-18 Super Hornet also demonstrate robust production potential. However, the Rafale, Typhoon, and Su-35 may require significant production expansion or Indian partnerships to fulfill the IAF's requirements.

Ultimately, the MRFA decision will hinge on a complex interplay of factors, including capability, technology transfer, and cost. But in the race to equip the IAF with its next generation of fighter jets, production rate will undoubtedly play a crucial role.

 

[Akshat]

Because Turkey has ordered F-16V's.

That’s about 40 new planes, if I am not wrong. That will take less than 2 years for them to deliver. But yes, I had forgotten about the Turkey deal.

 

[Pad UwU]

at the end all depends on cost , how much tech transfer the. OEM's can offer and how soon they can deliver, IAF doesn't want to wait till 2035 or 2040 to get Rafale's.

If rafale didn't go greedy they've already bag more orders and didn't scam us of ToT's plus manufacturing.... But they would rather built it all the way in France without any transfer of tech knowledge.... They would rather give us assembly jobs 😹😹😹 in some of it's systems

 

[Pad UwU]

we need a proven platform, KF21 is brand new to buy, it will take a long time to find out if there are any issues.

SK AFAIK won't sell kf21 until they are fully producing mk2 or mk3 version of it.... The mk1 version would be exclusive for SK air force for now

 

[PKPRS]

If rafale didn't go greedy they've already bag more orders and didn't scam us of ToT's plus manufacturing.... But they would rather built it all the way in France without any transfer of tech knowledge.... They would rather give us assembly jobs 😹😹😹 in some of it's systems

It happened before in MMRCA 1.0, because of them IAF is in in the precarious situation, there is no guarantee that they won’t do it again, at-least last time they were chasing flies without any export orders, now they are flush with 235 order backlog including 12 Rafale’s ordered by IRAQ couple of weeks ago for oil barter trade, so the buggers won’t come down, they will be more greedy now, MOD already had bitter experience negotiating price for 26 Rafale-M and the negotiations are still endlessly going on without any any sort of conclusion.

 

[Ajath Shri]

India must scrap this competition and focus on our indigenous jets. They need to sort out the problems with Tejas MK1A. Also we need to start manufacturing the prototypes for Tejas MK2 and AMCA as these will be the backbone of our air force for the next 50 years. Once HAL certifies the technology then we should let several private sector companies manufacture the jets who can make them faster and better.

Well Said. What about the engine supplies?

 

[NSR]

India should have bought the following long time ago to avoid this dire situation.

1- 36 to 54 Rafales just before the completion of first 36 Rafales has been completed.
Forget about TOTs and offsets completely. France/Dassault does not do it at all.

2. 57 F/A-18E/F Block III fighters for two aircraft carriers + some for Naval Stations to have a ROBUST naval fighter program to defend all the maritime areas.
Boeing could have easily setup a manufacturing facility in India to manufacture them and then shift it to manufacture Indian AMCA Mk I 5th Generation fighter.

 

[Ajath Shri]

No, Rafale beat because of the size of the Carrier deck that is too small to accomodate larger F/A-18's, besides parking 26 jets on the deck, they also wanted space to park helicopters and AEW&C assets, also MOD wants to add 26 more to the existing 36 Rafale's to save the investment on Infrastructure created for Rafale's and be done with Rafale's just like Mirage's, they never buy more that 55-60 French jets, also do you think $256Mln barebones cost for RafaleM F3 is cheap, be realistic.

Cost factor was involved in India going for RAFALE M. One should not stop with just the basic cost. Engine costs, spare parts inventory, MTTR, MTFO, operational costs, weapon integration and other infrastructure related expenditure need to be considered.
If IAF and IN have selected RAFALE that meant they have seen value in it. So instead of debating over a matter which is closed, let's now hope MRFA winner gets decided quickly.

 

[Ajath Shri]

IAF will reject F-15 due to lack of integrated IRST

Pros - Its falls under heavy aircraft category which means it carry more ordinance more than even a 5th gen fighter do.
Its a bomb truck.
It's comes with an advanced radar and avionics.
Unmatched speed and range.
Cons - Weapon cost and integration of only western weapons. Otherwise F15 EX is a beast.

 

[Ajath Shri]

The price of Gripen deal was approx $5.04 - $5.4 billion. The IAF Rafale deal was about ₹58,891 crore, which is approx $6.9 billion. So no. (Alright, I've wasted too much of my time searching this)

Grippen is a single engined platform. Rafale is twin engined. Grippen is considered to be a lightweight fighter, whereas Rafale falls under midweight category.
The construct of these two jets are different. So it wouldn't be prudent to compare Grippen vs Rafale

 

[Philippe Picard]

F-15EX has one of the best AESA radar. It carries a IRST pod, as you said. But it can carry 13,300 kg worth of stuff on it, which is the highest amount any fighter can carry. So it can be mitigated.

you have already have the SU 30...

 

[Anant]

I am talking about confirmed orders.

Sir, there are a bunch of confirmed orders. There are another 13 jets to be delivered to Slovakia, 40 to Turkey, 16 to Bahrain, 12 to Jordan, 25 to Morocco, 66 to Taiwan (as discussed), and 16 to Bulgaria. That comes to a total of 188 jets, which is roughly 7 years' worth of production.

 

[Oleg Olkha]

https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-israel-signs-52b-boeing-deal-for-f15-fighter-jets-1001493440
5 years from the moment of approval of the LOA (official request) until delivery to the initial customer. This schedule was set before August of this year and there have been no significant delays or changes since then, Although there is some chance of promotion (acceleration) under certain conditions. D. Trump...(smiley) Regards and Shabbat Shalom!

 

[WarTech]

The price of Gripen deal at the end was 9.1 billion USD as per Government of Brazil. The IAF deal was at 8.9 billion USD (at the exchange rate of 2016 when the deal was signed). So yes.

Nah, it was $5.4 billion. I got this number from DoJ (US) which was investigating this deal, as well as official confirmation. The rafale one is muddied due to pappu. But since you are saying it's more, my point still stands.

 

[WarTech]

You are forgetting that there was a 50% offset that was part of the deal that dassault had to pay so that figure should be cut in half. This also includes infrastructure, weapons, ISE, spares, servicing and help with technology.

Well, according to Mr. French, the total cost is $8.9 billion. My estimate was just for jets. So the costs are not cut in half.

 

[WarTech]

you have already have the SU 30...

My man, we have Su-30MKI, but the thing is we are not getting 5th gen jets. So logically, the best option would be F-15EX, which is the best jet in below 5th gen plane. The point I made doesn't consider other things, just the best option we have to strengthen the IAF.

 

[WarTech]

Pros - Its falls under heavy aircraft category which means it carry more ordinance more than even a 5th gen fighter do.
Its a bomb truck.
It's comes with an advanced radar and avionics.
Unmatched speed and range.
Cons - Weapon cost and integration of only western weapons. Otherwise F15 EX is a beast.

Boeing has already accepted that they will integrate Indian weapons. There was an article here long back confirming that. The main issue is geopolitics and cost.

 

[Sandeep]

Well, according to Mr. French, the total cost is $8.9 billion. My estimate was just for jets. So the costs are not cut in half.

So whatever the final price that was agreed to at least 50% was offsets so around $4.45 billion is around the final figure give or take a few million. However this cost includes weapons, spares, servicing, training, maintenance, indian specific enhancements, base infrastructure support, allow using our own missiles or bombs, foreign currency exchange costs and GST tax rate returns. So India got a very good deal considering the circumstances and what was included in that contract.

 

[Sandeep]

Well Said. What about the engine supplies?

Unfortunately we need to rely on them until we develop our own. The ideal deal would be to make a deal with France to develop our 5th generation engine for the AMCA but it can also be used for other fighters like Tejas MK1A and MK2. Also the main benefit is that we will get to learn how to develop a proper modern jet engine as it’s complex, difficult and expensive but nobody has ever given us 100% of the technology or education on how to develop it.

 

[WarTech]

So whatever the final price that was agreed to at least 50% was offsets so around $4.45 billion is around the final figure give or take a few million. However this cost includes weapons, spares, servicing, training, maintenance, indian specific enhancements, base infrastructure support, allow using our own missiles or bombs, foreign currency exchange costs and GST tax rate returns. So India got a very good deal considering the circumstances and what was included in that contract.

I am not saying that we didn't get a good deal, I'm saying that Gripen is far cheaper than Rafael, which my above point proves.

 

[Akshat]

Nah, it was $5.4 billion. I got this number from DoJ (US) which was investigating this deal, as well as official confirmation. The rafale one is muddied due to pappu. But since you are saying it's more, my point still stands.

Nope. The 5.4 billion usd was the initial deal signed by Gripen. But then they made improvements and all (like ISE) plus offsets. At the end Brazilian government ended up paying 9.1 billion dollars in all. This is the figure stated by the Brazilian government itself. So my point still stands.

 

[subrat beura]

I think let's ask Mr Trump can he allow some squadron of F-35 & then dozens of F-15EX in MRFA

 

[Hopz]

Among these countries, the US would be the least interested in transfer of technology and the only country India cannot arm-twist diplomatically, politically. And by the looks of it, Boeing and Lockheed Martin are among the least India seems to be interested in.

 

[Chinese eater]

Putin won't sell them if we buy SU-57.

India is not going to buy Su57 definitely

 

[Chinese eater]

Don't be dependent on USA for critical tech. A govt change after 5 years can be nightmare.

In that case Pakistan will have 5th gen fighters before India. How that will be solved?

 

[Sandeep]

I am not saying that we didn't get a good deal, I'm saying that Gripen is far cheaper than Rafael, which my above point proves.

Yes it might be cheaper but the problem with Gripen is that it uses a lot of critical foreign technology, parts and components from the USA and Europe.

The danger is that those countries might prevent any sales or create deliberate delays in selling it if they might not be happy with any Indian policies or laws that don’t align with their own foreign policy or their economic and political benefit. Also sourcing those parts on its own works out to be more expensive per unit rather than buying in bulk and are we able to buy it directly from the OEM or would we have to buy it from Saab indirectly which might cost us even more.