US F-15EX and F-21 Jets Hold Production Rate Advantage in India's MRFA Tender, Look at What Other Contenders can Deliver

India's Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) competition is heating up, with global aerospace giants vying to supply the Indian Air Force (IAF) with its next generation of fighter jets.

While technological prowess and capability are paramount, production rate is a critical factor that can significantly impact the timely delivery and overall success of the program.

The IAF seeks to rapidly modernize its fleet and maintain a steady acquisition timeline. This necessitates a supplier with the capacity to meet India's ambitious requirements. Let's examine the production capabilities of the leading MRFA contenders:

American Muscle: F-15EX and F-21​

• F-15EX (Boeing): Boeing's F-15EX, the latest iteration of the iconic F-15 Eagle, benefits from existing production lines and modernization efforts already underway for the US Air Force. Boeing's St. Louis facility can churn out 24 to 36 F-15EXs annually, with the potential for rapid expansion.
• F-21 (Lockheed Martin): Lockheed Martin's F-21, a customized variant of the F-16 specifically designed for India, leverages the company's vast experience in high-rate F-16 production. Lockheed Martin has delivered 30-40 F-16s per year at peak production and proposes establishing an Indian production line in collaboration with Tata Advanced Systems, further boosting potential output.

European Contenders: Rafale and Typhoon​

• Rafale (Dassault Aviation): Dassault Aviation, manufacturer of the Rafale, currently produces 11-15 aircraft per year. While Dassault has consistently met delivery schedules, it operates on a smaller scale than its American counterparts and currently has a production backlog due to 180 Rafale jets order from countries including Egypt, Greece, the UAE, and Indonesia. To meet India's ambitious acquisition timeline, Dassault would need to significantly ramp up production or establish an Indian assembly line.
• Typhoon (Eurofighter GmbH): With a peak production rate of 20-25 aircraft per year, the Typhoon's production capacity fluctuates based on demand from partner nations. While flexible, establishing a new production line in India would require significant investment and time.

Swedish and Russian Entries: Gripen and Su-35​

• Gripen E/F (Saab): Designed for rapid scale-up, Saab currently produces 16-20 Gripen E/F jets per year. The proposed technology transfer and local production line in India could significantly increase this capacity.
• Su-35 (United Aircraft Corporation): Russia's Su-35 faces production limitations due to lower demand and a focus on the newer Su-57. The United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) can produce 10-15 Su-35s annually, but significant expansion would be needed to meet India's requirements.

The American Advantage​

Based on current production capabilities, the F-15EX and F-21 emerge as frontrunners, offering the highest production rates among the contenders. The Gripen E/F and F/A-18 Super Hornet also demonstrate robust production potential. However, the Rafale, Typhoon, and Su-35 may require significant production expansion or Indian partnerships to fulfill the IAF's requirements.

Ultimately, the MRFA decision will hinge on a complex interplay of factors, including capability, technology transfer, and cost. But in the race to equip the IAF with its next generation of fighter jets, production rate will undoubtedly play a crucial role.

 

[Dredd]

As per Taiwan’s defence ministry the deliveries are likely to be over by 2026. Unlikely that we will place orders in time.

there are more F-16 order in pipeline apart from taiwanese order.

 

[Dredd]

Best fighter below 5th gen: F-15EX (no brainer)

IAF will reject F-15 due to lack of integrated IRST

 

[Dredd]

The F-16 line is set to go on till atleast the early 2030s without any new orders. Factor in the orders presently being worked on, and the lines can continue past 2035.

Incidentally, the F-15 and F-16 may well become the first fighter types in history to still be in service a century after their first flight (albeit in modernised form).

US fighter have big disadvantage due to lack of integrated IRST, IAF may follow IN in rejecting them.

 

[PKPRS]

EF and Gripen can be a good contender because they don't have a big backlog orders...

f15, f21 & f/a18 can stretch more orders. But for me f15ex is the king of all 4gen and 4.5gen nuff said🙃😜

rafale is good too, but it suffer big order backlog and now currently suffer in supply constraint plus might cause price cost overrun

su35s is good but now they are mainly focusing of replacing their old aircraft canon fodders😹😹😹

at the end all depends on cost , how much tech transfer the. OEM's can offer and how soon they can deliver, IAF doesn't want to wait till 2035 or 2040 to get Rafale's.

 

[Akshat]

3-4 squadrons of F15 and 114 Gripen-E / EF-Typhoon depending on Cost/ Amount of TOT, now Rafale has become untouchable due to extremely high cost and extended delivery timelines, OR in the worst case, we could also buy and locally make 200 F/A-18’s for both Airforce and Navy, if US sells them for $66Mln/unit fly away cost that USN pays, provided Boeing helps with AMCA.

You are suggesting F15 or F18 while Rafale is untouchable due to high costs. F18 is cheaper among those 2. And Rafale just beat F18 on costs. Hypocritic much?

 

[Akshat]

there are more F-16 order in pipeline apart from taiwanese order.

I am talking about confirmed orders.

 

[What the heck]

PLEASE request SK to enter KF21 Boramae jets also next....

we need a proven platform, KF21 is brand new to buy, it will take a long time to find out if there are any issues.

 

[What the heck]

US fighter have big disadvantage due to lack of integrated IRST, IAF may follow IN in rejecting them.

Some reports suggest that the new OSF-IT starting Rafale_F3 will not have an IR channel at all, meaning that Rafale would lose its onboard IRST and FLIR capabilities, relying on the Damocles targeting pod to provide any IR picture. There has been speculation that the loss of the IR is required to make space for the larger AESA radar boxes. Because the OSF-IT and the new radar will be validated together (to save duplication in the flight test effort), the new OSF will not be incorporated until the ‘Roadmap’ aircraft, though it could have been made available much earlier.

Rafale and F-35 - Skies Mag

Analyzing the pros and cons of two contenders vying for the title of Canada’s next generation fighter.

skiesmag.com

"The forward sensor optronics (FSO) system is a combined infrared, TV and laser rangefinder system mounted on the Rafale’s nose and primarily optimized for the air-to-air field. FSO is complemented by the Thales Damocles external sensor pod with FLIR and TV capabilities, which is primarily designed for the air-to-ground field"

So Rafale also wastes a hard point for this purpose.

 

[WarTech]

As per Taiwan’s defence ministry the deliveries are likely to be over by 2026. Unlikely that we will place orders in time.

Even if the deliveries are completed, F-16 will still have open line till 2030s.

 

[Akshat]

Even if the deliveries are completed, F-16 will still have open line till 2030s.

For what?

 

[Surfer]

You are suggesting F15 or F18 while Rafale is untouchable due to high costs. F18 is cheaper among those 2. And Rafale just beat F18 on costs. Hypocritic much?

No, Rafale beat because of the size of the Carrier deck that is too small to accomodate larger F/A-18's, besides parking 26 jets on the deck, they also wanted space to park helicopters and AEW&C assets, also MOD wants to add 26 more to the existing 36 Rafale's to save the investment on Infrastructure created for Rafale's and be done with Rafale's just like Mirage's, they never buy more that 55-60 French jets, also do you think $256Mln barebones cost for RafaleM F3 is cheap, be realistic.

 

[kunites]

The circus continues..while US has high production rates we all know how reliable US can be in sensitive defence equipments ..entire LCA program delays are largely attributed to tech transfer or engine delays and still we prefer to discuss US fighters . Rafale is proven and IAF wants it so why not work with France to establish production lines and MRO facility . Close this MMRCA, MRCA , MRFA 1,'2 3.. circus for heaven's sake and give IAF what it wants through a G2G deal

 

[WarTech]

For what?

Because Turkey has ordered F-16V's.

 

[WarTech]

Gripen sold to Brazil were more expensive than our Rafale bro

The price of Gripen deal was approx $5.04 - $5.4 billion. The IAF Rafale deal was about ₹58,891 crore, which is approx $6.9 billion. So no. (Alright, I've wasted too much of my time searching this)

 

[WarTech]

IAF will reject F-15 due to lack of integrated IRST

F-15EX has one of the best AESA radar. It carries a IRST pod, as you said. But it can carry 13,300 kg worth of stuff on it, which is the highest amount any fighter can carry. So it can be mitigated.

 

[PKPRS]

US fighter have big disadvantage due to lack of integrated IRST, IAF may follow IN in rejecting them.

Gripen, EF-Typhoon, MIG-35 snd SU-35 all have integrated IRST, even though Rafale has integrated IRST, it still carries an external Talios optronic pod loosing a hard point.

 

[Puneet]

The Rafale is the best bet. Scap the tender and go for G2G deal for quick decision

 

[Sandeep]

The price of Gripen deal was approx $5.04 - $5.4 billion. The IAF Rafale deal was about ₹58,891 crore, which is approx $6.9 billion. So no. (Alright, I've wasted too much of my time searching this)

You are forgetting that there was a 50% offset that was part of the deal that dassault had to pay so that figure should be cut in half. This also includes infrastructure, weapons, ISE, spares, servicing and help with technology.

 

[Sandeep]

India must scrap this competition and focus on our indigenous jets. They need to sort out the problems with Tejas MK1A. Also we need to start manufacturing the prototypes for Tejas MK2 and AMCA as these will be the backbone of our air force for the next 50 years. Once HAL certifies the technology then we should let several private sector companies manufacture the jets who can make them faster and better.

 

[Akshat]

The price of Gripen deal was approx $5.04 - $5.4 billion. The IAF Rafale deal was about ₹58,891 crore, which is approx $6.9 billion. So no. (Alright, I've wasted too much of my time searching this)

The price of Gripen deal at the end was 9.1 billion USD as per Government of Brazil. The IAF deal was at 8.9 billion USD (at the exchange rate of 2016 when the deal was signed). So yes.

 

[Akshat]

Because Turkey has ordered F-16V's.

That’s about 40 new planes, if I am not wrong. That will take less than 2 years for them to deliver. But yes, I had forgotten about the Turkey deal.

 

[Pad UwU]

at the end all depends on cost , how much tech transfer the. OEM's can offer and how soon they can deliver, IAF doesn't want to wait till 2035 or 2040 to get Rafale's.

If rafale didn't go greedy they've already bag more orders and didn't scam us of ToT's plus manufacturing.... But they would rather built it all the way in France without any transfer of tech knowledge.... They would rather give us assembly jobs 😹😹😹 in some of it's systems

 

[Pad UwU]

we need a proven platform, KF21 is brand new to buy, it will take a long time to find out if there are any issues.

SK AFAIK won't sell kf21 until they are fully producing mk2 or mk3 version of it.... The mk1 version would be exclusive for SK air force for now

 

[PKPRS]

If rafale didn't go greedy they've already bag more orders and didn't scam us of ToT's plus manufacturing.... But they would rather built it all the way in France without any transfer of tech knowledge.... They would rather give us assembly jobs 😹😹😹 in some of it's systems

It happened before in MMRCA 1.0, because of them IAF is in in the precarious situation, there is no guarantee that they won’t do it again, at-least last time they were chasing flies without any export orders, now they are flush with 235 order backlog including 12 Rafale’s ordered by IRAQ couple of weeks ago for oil barter trade, so the buggers won’t come down, they will be more greedy now, MOD already had bitter experience negotiating price for 26 Rafale-M and the negotiations are still endlessly going on without any any sort of conclusion.

 

[Ajath Shri]

India must scrap this competition and focus on our indigenous jets. They need to sort out the problems with Tejas MK1A. Also we need to start manufacturing the prototypes for Tejas MK2 and AMCA as these will be the backbone of our air force for the next 50 years. Once HAL certifies the technology then we should let several private sector companies manufacture the jets who can make them faster and better.

Well Said. What about the engine supplies?

 

[NSR]

India should have bought the following long time ago to avoid this dire situation.

1- 36 to 54 Rafales just before the completion of first 36 Rafales has been completed.
Forget about TOTs and offsets completely. France/Dassault does not do it at all.

2. 57 F/A-18E/F Block III fighters for two aircraft carriers + some for Naval Stations to have a ROBUST naval fighter program to defend all the maritime areas.
Boeing could have easily setup a manufacturing facility in India to manufacture them and then shift it to manufacture Indian AMCA Mk I 5th Generation fighter.

 

[Ajath Shri]

No, Rafale beat because of the size of the Carrier deck that is too small to accomodate larger F/A-18's, besides parking 26 jets on the deck, they also wanted space to park helicopters and AEW&C assets, also MOD wants to add 26 more to the existing 36 Rafale's to save the investment on Infrastructure created for Rafale's and be done with Rafale's just like Mirage's, they never buy more that 55-60 French jets, also do you think $256Mln barebones cost for RafaleM F3 is cheap, be realistic.

Cost factor was involved in India going for RAFALE M. One should not stop with just the basic cost. Engine costs, spare parts inventory, MTTR, MTFO, operational costs, weapon integration and other infrastructure related expenditure need to be considered.
If IAF and IN have selected RAFALE that meant they have seen value in it. So instead of debating over a matter which is closed, let's now hope MRFA winner gets decided quickly.

 

[Ajath Shri]

IAF will reject F-15 due to lack of integrated IRST

Pros - Its falls under heavy aircraft category which means it carry more ordinance more than even a 5th gen fighter do.
Its a bomb truck.
It's comes with an advanced radar and avionics.
Unmatched speed and range.
Cons - Weapon cost and integration of only western weapons. Otherwise F15 EX is a beast.

 

[Ajath Shri]

The price of Gripen deal was approx $5.04 - $5.4 billion. The IAF Rafale deal was about ₹58,891 crore, which is approx $6.9 billion. So no. (Alright, I've wasted too much of my time searching this)

Grippen is a single engined platform. Rafale is twin engined. Grippen is considered to be a lightweight fighter, whereas Rafale falls under midweight category.
The construct of these two jets are different. So it wouldn't be prudent to compare Grippen vs Rafale

 

[Philippe Picard]

F-15EX has one of the best AESA radar. It carries a IRST pod, as you said. But it can carry 13,300 kg worth of stuff on it, which is the highest amount any fighter can carry. So it can be mitigated.

you have already have the SU 30...