Why a Russian Su-57 Shot Down Its Own S-70 Okhotnik Stealth Wingman Drone: Friendly Fire Accident or Loss of Control?

[Robin]

I am not trying anything. I am simply giving facts and context. If you bother reading other comments by me, I have mentioned that there is going to be a lot of thinking in the West on just why the drone wasn't detected.

Next, the photographs released are mostly of the drone's wing, not the drone itself. Also, even if one assumes the drone fell vertically, what are you trying to say by that?

Finally, most Iranian missiles (which aren't primitive, mind you) were intercepted by Israeli defences. If you think any air defence system will give you a 100% interception rate on a saturation strike, then you are very badly mistaken. Some missiles will make it through in a saturation strike. Finally, and building on what I said earlier in this paragraph, Iranian missiles aren't primitive. They are not at the cutting edge of technology, but they are perfectly decent for what they do.

The s-70 and su-57 were in clear ukraine controlled region, not in the Russian airspace.

Its a confirmed fact,there needs to be no debate on it.

Dosent mean they are undetectable, just means that there may be limited radars in that region.

Nevatim base was hit by at least 7 missiles ,and allegedly by 30( seems false based on satellite images). And that too when Iran has limited to no satellite capabilities.

No air defence is good enough vs saturation strikes by a decent missile.

The cost of interception is too damn high ,sm-3 used by usa costs in 20-30 million each unit and usa used 12.Iron dome won't be cheap either.Fact of the matter is Israel is too small to open 3 fronts ,it has limited number of power stations etc and risks getting crippled even if 4-5 missiles hit the mark.

 

[Robin]

US is not going to give F-35 and IAF won't buy it either. Other than them there is only CCP and Ruskis are manufacturing these types of jets. AMCA is not going to fly before 2035-2040 anyway. So what are we going to fight them against. There is something that we all need to understand in the first place, that is no matter how much we speak ill about Su-57 it is still a 5th gen jet even if it is not good in some aspects such as radar. It still uses internal weapons bay. And our Su-30mki will be bright as day in the enemy radar, and Rafale is never a real match for stealth jet even if the bare aircraft has very low RCS value. France can be pretty comfortable because there is plenty of SATO countries surrounding it with F-35, but we have enemies on both sides and conflict can happen anytime. We should be prepared not like now doing this MMRCA circus show first, then MRFA circus now.

We made a critical mistake refusing the jv on su-57 thinking too much on our manufacturing and it backfired.

Disadvantage of su-57 is that it's not a complete stealth plane like j-20 or F-22 or not even F-35.The avionics would be at least a generation behind the competing western systems,that's a fact.

But we would have got a very capable engine in the form of 117s or AL-51 f to be used for maybe single engine AMCA on F-35 lines.There is dedicated internal bay with 4 alcm provision.It has 4 aesa radars ( 3 front ,1 tail) and dedicated L band radar in levcon for detecting stealth aircrafts.

All in all had we agreed to jv,we would have already been in a position to start the manufacture of su-57.

 

[Robin]

And where exactly did I see we should run after F-35s? Please don't put words in my mouth. Just because I said the Su-57 is not a very feasible option does not mean I am campaigning for the F-35. In fact, I always say to people who advocate for F-35 acquisition that the international arms market is not like a supermarket where one can go and pick anything you want.

Regardless, moving on. Any nation with a large-ish air force is keeping both 4.5th and 5th generation jets in its inventory. As it stands, technology proliferation mandates that if we go for fifth generation jets, we wouldn't have too many contenders. More importantly, we would have to get the jet on the OEM's terms. That means limited ToT, and massive resistance to integrating Indian arms, besides high costs. That issue exists for 4.5th generation jets too, but to a far lower extent.

Finally, we have a lot of 3rd, and 4th generation jets that need replacing, and need replacing fast. Without MRFA, we will not reach 42 fighter squadrons until the early 2050s at the earliest, and we'll be replacing the Su-30MKI at that point, which further means a sustained 42 squadron number won't happen until well into the 2060s. That's over four decades from today.

But based on Pakistan acquisition of J-31 and China having sizeable number of j-20 ,don't u think it would be stupid for us to be waiting 10-15 more years ( based on timeline ) to get 5 gen stealth?

Direct one on one su-30 with rcs of 15 m2 is a sitting duck with any decent aesa radars ,forget about aewcs.Rafale can fare better due to switching off radar and relying on spectra but has limited internal fuel and would need drop tanks significantly increasing the rcs.

Even turkey has made a decent 5 gen fighter ( stealth aspect ) ,Japan and South Korea too are at advanced levels.We simply paid way too much for rafale.

Modern war is a war of bvr ,we simply will loose in that.The only good thing with rafale is weapons package which will prove helpful ,nothing else.

 

[Robin]

Turns out Russian fighters are more capable than the US wants us to think? Going deep in enemy's territory without being noticed is concerning and seems this is not the first time.
Also, where is that intercepting we used to read about, before? 10 out of 10, 12 out of 12 kinzhals. As first we see that Russia never uses so many kinzhals. That was obviously a lie to serve in propaganda purposes. The Patriot system can't even protect itself. Israeli air defense systems failed hard. Those are American systems too.

Russians have done very poorly ,at least 12 each of su-30 and su-34 were lost early on the war.Huge rcs ,older pesa radars and no aewcs support ( they lost a lost of them too).

They may have the tech but no money to upgrade their fighters.Even su-35 s is flying with a pesa radars in 2024.

 

[Anant]

Nevatim base was hit by at least 7 missiles ,and allegedly by 30( seems false based on satellite images). And that too when Iran has limited to no satellite capabilities.

No air defence is good enough vs saturation strikes by a decent missile.

The cost of interception is too damn high ,sm-3 used by usa costs in 20-30 million each unit and usa used 12.Iron dome won't be cheap either.Fact of the matter is Israel is too small to open 3 fronts ,it has limited number of power stations etc and risks getting crippled even if 4-5 missiles hit the mark.

Nevatim was hit by a number of missiles, but the effect they would have had would be limited. Nevatim has hardened bunkers and hangars, so a few holes in the apron or the runway isn't going to interrupt operations much.

As for the costs of interception, I agree. It is a very expensive proposition. However, Israel would need a dozen or two critical hits to be crippled. A dozen normal hits aren't going to do too much harm. Oh, and a minor addendum: The USD 30 million cost for the SM-3 is the export cost. The cost for US operators is around 16 million USD.

 

[Anant]

The s-70 and su-57 were in clear ukraine controlled region, not in the Russian airspace.

Its a confirmed fact,there needs to be no debate on it.

Dosent mean they are undetectable, just means that there may be limited radars in that region.

As I said, boss, there were reports which stated a mid-range AAM was used, which led me to hypothesise the Su-57 was in Russian airspace with the drone being in Ukrainian airspace. Someone pointed out a video to me, which disproved my hypothesis, and showed that both aircraft were in Ukrainian airspace. I will readily admit I am wrong when I am.

That said, as I also alluded back then, a lot of thinking and questions will be raised about just why the drone and aircraft weren't detected earlier, assuming radar coverage of that particular area is dense enough.

 

[Anant]

Yes, u can study the radar absorbent material, the surface contour and radar absorbent texture and paints to fine tune ur own radar system and sigint system. Russians invented stealth tech anyway .

Russia developed their own stealth technology, but the folks to invent it were the Americans.

 

[Robin]

Nevatim was hit by a number of missiles, but the effect they would have had would be limited. Nevatim has hardened bunkers and hangars, so a few holes in the apron or the runway isn't going to interrupt operations much.

As for the costs of interception, I agree. It is a very expensive proposition. However, Israel would need a dozen or two critical hits to be crippled. A dozen normal hits aren't going to do too much harm. Oh, and a minor addendum: The USD 30 million cost for the SM-3 is the export cost. The cost for US operators is around 16 million USD.

I still feel Israel is being too aggressive atm.I am well wisher and what I see is beyond comfort.They need to steer away from Iran.

Another issue now is if they hit petroleum production of Iran ,there is a risk of Iran blocking hormuz and stop the shipping driving the oil price up.Benefits no one really.Better they do some token airstrikes on Iran and just focus on lebanon and gaza.

On the cost of sm-3....even 16 million is no loose change.

The politics is evolving ,democrats in the usa no longer blindly favour israel now and with increasing votebank politics of muslims in the usa ,there is a real danger that in 15-20 years down the line usa support for Israel gets very thin.

Long run,I have my reservations on the survival of Israel if some peace effort is not tried.

 

[Dipesh Debnath]

Russia developed their own stealth technology, but the folks to invent it were the Americans.

Pyotr Ufimtsev in 1960s presented first paper on rcs reduction by using diamond shaped surfaces. US applied it in aircraft f117

 

[Indian1]

Russian weapons are most dangerous to Russia itself.