The Indian Air Force (IAF) is currently facing a significant challenge: the potential for a two-front war against both Pakistan and China, nations with increasingly sophisticated military capabilities and a record of working together against India's interests.
While the IAF's fighter squadron strength has diminished to 31, below the sanctioned strength of 42, a strategic refocusing on force multipliers is more crucial than simply increasing the number of fighter squadrons.
Instead of solely concentrating on the slow acquisition of new combat aircraft, the IAF should utilize the capital allocated by the Central government to significantly strengthen its force multipliers—assets that dramatically improve combat effectiveness without relying exclusively on sheer numbers.
This strategic change is vital for deterring and, if necessary, defeating threats from both the western and eastern borders.
The decrease in the IAF's fighter strength has been a long-standing concern. Older aircraft, such as the MiG-21, MiG-23, and MiG-27, are gradually being retired. Replacements, including the domestically produced Tejas LCA, the French Rafale, and potential future acquisitions through programs like MMRCA 2.0, are being introduced slowly.
As of March 2025, the IAF fields only 31 squadrons, significantly fewer than the 42 deemed necessary to address a combined threat from Pakistan and China.
The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) operates approximately 20 squadrons, increasingly equipped with Chinese J-10C fighters and potentially 5th-generation J-35A aircraft. The People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) possesses over 50 fighter squadrons, including advanced stealth J-20s.
This numerical difference has prompted calls for quicker procurement, but progress remains slow due to bureaucratic delays, budgetary limitations, and international supply chain disruptions.
However, focusing solely on squadron numbers ignores a key aspect of modern warfare: battles are not won by fighter jets alone. The IAF's experience during the 2019 Balakot airstrike, where precision strikes and superior situational awareness proved more valuable than numerical superiority, highlights the importance of force multipliers.
With the Central government allocating ₹1.72 lakh crore (approximately $21 billion) for defense capital expenditure in the 2025 budget, the IAF has a prime opportunity to invest in assets that enhance the effectiveness and survivability of its existing fleet.
Force multipliers encompass a range of systems, including airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) systems, mid-air refueling tankers, precision-guided munitions (PGMs), electronic warfare (EW) platforms, and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). These assets can transform a numerically smaller force into a highly potent one.
Early detection is critical when facing threats like China's J-20 stealth fighters and Pakistan's expanding missile arsenal. Currently, the IAF operates a limited number of AWACS: only three Phalcon systems and two indigenous Netra AEW&C systems. This is insufficient for covering a 7,500-kilometer border.
Investing in additional AWACS platforms, such as the DRDO's Netra Mk-2 (based on the Airbus A330) or acquiring systems like Israel's EL/W-2090, would provide critical real-time battlefield awareness. This would enable the IAF to direct its fighters more effectively and counter stealth threats. AEW&C systems is a growing trend globally, as nations recognize their crucial role in modern air warfare.
A two-front war necessitates operations across vast distances, from the high altitudes of Ladakh to the deserts of Rajasthan. The IAF's current fleet of six IL-78 tankers is inadequate for sustaining prolonged missions.
Acquiring more tankers, like the Airbus A330 MRTT, would enable aircraft such as Rafales, Su-30 MKIs, and Tejas jets to conduct deep strikes into enemy territory, targeting PLAAF bases in Tibet or PAF installations in Punjab, without needing to return to base. This increased operational endurance is particularly important when facing China's sophisticated, layered air defenses.
Numerical strength is less critical when each mission achieves significant impact. The IAF's existing arsenal of PGMs, including the Spice-2000, BrahMos, and the indigenous SAAW, has demonstrated its effectiveness in conflicts like Balakot and Kargil. Expanding the inventory of these weapons, along with integrating hypersonic missiles like the BrahMos-II (currently under development), can compensate for fewer squadrons by guaranteeing that each mission degrades enemy infrastructure or air defenses.
Both China and Pakistan significantly rely on integrated air defense systems, such as China's HQ-9 and Pakistan's HQ-16. Dedicated EW platforms, including upgraded Su-30 MKIs equipped with domestically produced jammers or new systems like the Embraer EMB-145I, can disrupt these defenses, rendering enemy radar and missiles less effective. This capability enables smaller IAF formations to penetrate enemy airspace with significantly lower risk. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) notes that electronic warfare capabilities are becoming increasingly vital in modern conflicts, as they can neutralize advanced air defense networks.
UAVs and loitering munitions provide a cost-effective method for extending combat capabilities. The IAF has already incorporated MQ-9 Reaper drones from the U.S. and is actively developing domestic systems like the DRDO Ghatak stealth UCAV. Expanding these programs, deploying drones for reconnaissance, strike missions, and even as kamikaze weapons, can harass enemy forces along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and Line of Control (LoC). This preserves manned aircraft for higher-value targets.
Strategic Budget Allocation
The substantial ₹1.72 lakh crore capital budget provides a critical opportunity, but careful prioritization is essential. The IAF should consider the following allocations:- AEW&C and Tankers: Allocate approximately ₹20,000 crore for 6-8 additional AWACS and tankers, aiming to double the current fleet by 2030.
- PGMs and Missiles: Invest around ₹15,000 crore in PGM and missile stockpiles, establishing a 60-day war reserve.
- Electronic Warfare: Spend roughly ₹10,000 crore on EW platforms and jammers, integrating them across Su-30 and Rafale squadrons.
- UAVs: Channel approximately ₹25,000 crore into UAV development and procurement, accelerating the Ghatak program and acquiring more MALE (Medium-Altitude Long-Endurance) UAVs and loyal wingman UCAVs.
Encouraging public-private partnerships with companies like HAL, Tata, and Reliance can accelerate production, while collaboration with international allies (such as the U.S., France, and Israel) ensures access to cutting-edge technology. This approach will maximize the impact of the defense budget and better prepare the IAF for the complex challenges of a potential two-front war.
