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The potential purchase of China’s advanced J-35 stealth fighter by Pakistan is increasingly dominating conversations among US defence experts and think tanks.
Although Washington has not formally tied Pakistan's potential acquisition to offering the F-35 Lightning II to India, experts believe this move could drastically alter American strategic planning.
Open-source reports indicate that Pakistan is moving forward to procure up to 40 J-35 jets, which would make it the first international operator of the Chinese fifth-generation aircraft.
Specialists from prominent groups like the Stimson Center, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) are looking at this situation beyond just the military rivalry between India and Pakistan. Instead, they view it through the wider lens of the ongoing strategic competition with China in the Indo-Pacific region.
These analysts suggest that adding the J-35 to the Pakistan Air Force means more than just a simple aircraft upgrade. It represents a deepening of the defence relationship between Beijing and Islamabad.
The aircraft, which recently made its public debut at the 2024 Zhuhai Airshow, would serve to extend the footprint and operational capabilities of Chinese military aviation right into South Asia.
This growing Chinese presence could mount political pressure on US policymakers to boost India’s aerial combat strength to support America's broader goals in the Indo-Pacific.
Washington largely sees India as a crucial security ally to counter China's rising military power. If Pakistan fields a fleet of Chinese stealth fighters, it would give American strategists a stronger reason to deepen defence ties with New Delhi.
Currently, India's own fifth-generation fighter programme is still years away from deployment, making the capability gap a pressing concern.
Because of this shifting dynamic, some US observers believe Washington might drop its historical hesitation about selling highly sophisticated warplanes to India. In the past, the United States has kept tight restrictions on exporting the F-35.
The government has been highly protective of the jet's classified technologies, such as its stealth features, advanced sensor networks, complex mission software, and electronic warfare capabilities.
Despite the strong strategic reasons for offering the F-35 to India, experts warn that major roadblocks must be cleared before any actual sale could happen.
A primary concern is India’s extensive use of Russian-made military hardware, especially the Su-30MKI fighter jets and the S-400 Triumf missile defence system.
US defence officials have long maintained that operating the F-35 alongside advanced Russian systems poses severe security risks, as it could potentially compromise the stealth jet's technology.
The Pentagon remains heavily focused on safeguarding the F-35's secret mission data and stealth traits from espionage or accidental data leaks. These strict security protocols have dictated past US export approvals and will undoubtedly play a major role in any future negotiations with India.
Furthermore, the operational requirements of the F-35 present another hurdle. The aircraft relies on a highly controlled maintenance and software network, known as the Operational Data Integrated Network (ODIN).
Joining this system requires strict adherence to US security rules and software management practices, which is very different from how India usually handles its defence purchases.
Think tanks in Washington doubt that these rigid US requirements will sit well with India’s core policy of strategic autonomy. New Delhi has always preferred to maintain maximum independence in its military operations and actively avoids becoming overly reliant on any single foreign nation for its defence needs.
There is also the question of how an F-35 purchase would impact India’s homegrown fifth-generation fighter project, the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA).
Some American analysts suggest that buying the F-35 would give the Indian Air Force an immediate stealth capability to counter regional threats while the AMCA is being developed.
On the flip side, others warn that buying an expensive foreign jet could drain essential funds, talent, and industrial focus away from India's own aerospace ambitions.
Since the AMCA is vital for India's long-term goal of self-reliance, New Delhi will have to carefully balance short-term military needs against the future of its domestic defence industry.
Ultimately, American analysts agree that if Pakistan introduces the Chinese J-35, it will bolster the case in Washington to enhance defence ties with India, potentially opening the door to talks about advanced fighter jets.
However, they stress that transforming this strategic idea into an actual F-35 sale will mean overcoming immense hurdles related to technological security, national sovereignty, export laws, and India’s steadfast commitment to building its own weapons.
