Azerbaijan's JF-17 Deal – Will Armenia Counter with Rafale or LCA-Tejas Purchase?

The Caucasus region, a volatile crossroads between Europe and Asia, is once again experiencing a shift in its delicate power dynamics.

Azerbaijan's potential acquisition of advanced JF-17 Thunder fighter jets from Pakistan has triggered security concerns, highlighting Armenia's counter-moves and the wider geopolitical implications for the region.

Azerbaijan Upgrades, Armenia Seeks Answers​

Azerbaijan seeks to modernize its aging Soviet-era air force with a reported $1.5 billion deal for up to 40 JF-17 Thunder jets. This move reinforces lessons learned from recent conflicts in the Karabakh region, where the effective use of drones underscored the importance of air superiority.

In response to its 2020 defeat in Karabakh, Armenia has sought increased military support from India. This includes integrating Indian weaponry onto its existing Russian aircraft. However, Armenia's small fleet size may necessitate purchasing additional fighters to match Azerbaijan's growing capabilities.

India and France: Potential Suppliers, Uncertain Timelines​

India has been a key arms supplier to Armenia, but its own Tejas Mk1A fighters – a potential counter to the JF-17 – are in high demand domestically. Engine production bottlenecks further complicate any quick export deal.

France has also offered military support, with the possibility of supplying Rafale fighter jets. However, long production backlogs create significant wait times for Armenia.

The Wider Context​

Azerbaijan's JF-17 acquisition and Armenia's search for a countermeasure reflect the ongoing arms race within the Caucasus. India and France's involvement hints at the growing geopolitical interest in the region, where alliances and rivalries between larger powers often play out. The outcome of this fighter jet competition could significantly reshape the balance of power in this historically unstable region.

Conclusion​

The outcome of this fighter jet competition remains uncertain. Will Armenia acquire the necessary firepower to counter Azerbaijan's military advantage? Can India or France rise to the challenge, or will other players emerge?

The answers will not only define the future of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict but also set the stage for power dynamics and security concerns in the wider Caucasus region for years to come.

 

[sunilanalysis]

Even the Armenians will not use the MiG-21. Face it, there is practically no nation on Earth that will buy second-hand MiG-21s, with the possible exceptions of Syria (51 MiG-21s in service) and North Korea (26 MiG-21s plus 180 J-7s in service). Even so, those nations may only buy the MiG-21 for spares.

only option for mig21 is to convert it into a kamikaze drone/unmanned remotely controlled fighter jet....
Even if it crashes in enemy territory its good, if it crashes locally no pilot life will be lost...

 

[amerjit johal]

If India gets the deal the money can be used for increasing HAL assembly lines.

Stop dreaming - India is not going to get the deal.

 

[amerjit johal]

azerbaijan is oil rich. armenia cant compete in a arms race with it.

Azerbaijan can afford more up market planes than JF17

 

[amerjit johal]

Tejas could be a good choice for armenia since it is cheaper, while being highly capable and reliable at same time and it is also integrated with russian missiles already which armenia uses.

Tejas could be a good choice - in 20 years.

 

[Anant]

Your points are valid but upgrading Su30SM would also be out of question as Russia would never allow India to tinker it's lastest SU30 variant questioning the intellectual rights.

True, but I am not saying we do it today. HAL has planned to offer the Super Sukhoi upgrade to other operators (external circumstances permitting) once we have started on the program ourselves. At that point, we can extend that offer to Armenia's 4 Su-30SMs as well. In any case, such an offer is still several years away.

 

[Akshat]

ISI paid agent under fake id

Thanks for confirming your identity.

 

[Anant]

ISI paid agent under fake id

Do you actually have a better way of countering what Sudha said? HAL has a very bad track record, and unless they get their act together, export orders are very far away.

 

[Akshat]

Armenia won’t be there if they wait for Tejas, it is better they get either Gripen or F16 Block 70/72, they can’t afford Rafale or Typhoon, may be we can upgrade Armenian Su-30’s to super Sukhoi and fit them with Brahmos, Rudram and Astra missiles and them Anti drone and missile defense systems along with Pinaka.

Acquisition cost matters to smaller countries. Even LM’s chief executive didn’t say that F21 (basically F16) will be cheaper than Rafale. He said let’s focus on lifetime costs and what not. So yeah sure, they can go for that super expensive plane.

 

[Anant]

If India gets the deal the money can be used for increasing HAL assembly lines.

If we do get that deal, it will be for a dozen or so Tejas aircraft. The profits from that aren't going to go too far if you want to upgrade capacity with it.

 

[Anant]

Armenia is a very rich country.

Provide evidence to substantiate your statement. Armenia is not a rich country by any stretch: Their GDP shows that.

 

[Akshat]

Every country like Myanmar, Nigeria and even Pakistan have complained about the junk fighter and have grounded most of the jets because they are unable to perform as advertised and unsafe to fly.

Can you please show where has Pakistan complained about it?

 

[Akshat]

As for the Tejas, it is an interesting proposition. At between 30 and 40 million USD per aircraft, it is a far more affordable choice. However, if you assume Armenia decided to replace their Su-25s on a one-for-one basis with the Tejas, that still translates to some 600 million dollars or so, which is pretty much the annual budget of the Armenian Air Force. What might happen is that we could pitch the Tejas to them as a trainer / combat-capable fighter. Pair up a few soft loans, and we may just about be able to pull it off.

Where did the figure of 30-40 million usd came from buddy? When India itself signed the deal, the per unit cost (2021) was 73 million dollars. For any foreign entity, we will charge some profit for sure. And then the cost of weapons and spares etc.

 

[Akshat]

HAL needs to step up production, GOI needs to sort out engine issues, Rafale needs to make in India

There is no engine issue as of now. There is only HAL issue.

 

[Akshat]

If India gets the deal the money can be used for increasing HAL assembly lines.

What’s the point of new lines when existing lines are functioning at 10-20% efficiency?

 

[Anant]

Where did the figure of 30-40 million usd came from buddy? When India itself signed the deal, the per unit cost (2021) was 73 million dollars. For any foreign entity, we will charge some profit for sure. And then the cost of weapons and spares etc.

Boss, 40 million USD per jet was the price at which the Tejas was offered to Sri Lanka a few years back, before they decided to cancel the acquisition on financial grounds in 2021 and refit their IAI Kfirs instead.

That figure included some technical support, so if you were to offer a barebones Tejas, the figure may be around that. My understanding is also that the cost price of the Tejas is somewhere in that ballpark.

However, what you say is perfectly valid. Of course we will charge some reasonable profit margins for any orders. I only used the barebones number to illustrate that even the Tejas has a very marginal chance of being acquired by Armenia. They simply cannot afford more than a couple of Tejas aircraft.

 

[Instant Karma]

Provide evidence to substantiate your statement. Armenia is not a rich country by any stretch: Their GDP shows that.

Per capital income is 6 time of India.

 

[Anant]

Per capital income is 6 time of India.

Incorrect. Here's why:

1. Armenia's nominal GDP per capita is 8283 USD, which is about 2.9 times India's nominal GDP per capita of 2850 USD.
2. Armenia's GDP (PPP) per capita is 19745 USD, which is just under double India's GDP (PPP) of 9890 USD.

Regardless, per capita income doesn't matter at all in these matters. What matters is how much money you have to spare for any acquisition. If per capita GDP was the deciding factor for such things, then the strongest militaries in the world should belong to Luxembourg or Monaco or Liechtenstein.

Kuwait has a nominal GDP per capita which is about 11.3 times that of India, and a GDP (PPP) per capita which is about 5.234 times India's figure. Kuwait also has a coastline, and their Navy's main surface combatants are 10 attack craft of about 250 ton displacement. By your logic, if income per capita was the only factor deciding the strength of a military, then Kuwait would have to have 10-20 carriers, 60-120 destroyers, etc, wouldn't they?

 

[Akshat]

Boss, 40 million USD per jet was the price at which the Tejas was offered to Sri Lanka a few years back, before they decided to cancel the acquisition on financial grounds in 2021 and refit their IAI Kfirs instead.

It was not offered buddy. It was the price HAL chief quoted for the barebones plane. And the exact amount was 43 million usd. However, that didn’t include many things like ground support, customs, other taxes, inflation cushion, provision for exchange rate volatility, consultation charges to ADA (800 crores) etc. Considering that inflation has exceeded the target ever since then, rupee has weakened, etc., it is unlikely that any component out of the 73 million usd will go down. In fact, inflation was well above the RBI target ever since then. So the price is only likely to go up in the interim. This is just like how Boeing says F18 costs ~60 millions to make, but is offered at 250 million usd.

 

[Instant Karma]

Regardless, per capita income doesn't matter at all in these matters. What matters is how much money you have to spare for any acquisition. If per capita GDP was the deciding factor for such things, then the strongest militaries in the world should belong to Luxembourg or Monaco or Liechtenstein.

Exactly. GDP does not matter. What matters is the requirements of the country.

 

[das bab]

Just soft loan our entire 1 tejas sqadron and see how it performs under actual war condition. Tejas will get good experience and we know the areas improve we have been challenged by pakis

 

[Pad UwU]

Tejas could be a good choice for armenia since it is cheaper, while being highly capable and reliable at same time and it is also integrated with russian missiles already which armenia uses.

HAL can't even deliver Tejas mk1a on time so writing this article is a waste of time, add it up with GE production problem 😹😹😹

 

[Pad UwU]

Boring article 😹😹😹
We know HAL is screwdring Tejas while GE is having bad day of their life😺
Whatda heck rafale is stupid choi very expensive for small country same to typhoon....
F16, su30sm or Gripen might be good.... Alternative IMHO

 

[Anil Kumar]

Can anyone please tell what's HAL's current production rate of LCA annually, 2, 4 or 6

 

[Amit Ray]

Can you please show where has Pakistan complained about it?

Why should one show to you?? If you want to know search for yourself.

 

[Anant]

Exactly. GDP does not matter. What matters is the requirements of the country.

Requirements matter, yes. However, there is one thing that should be noted here. Armenia's Su-25s are exceptionally old, and as best I have found, have never been modernised. These are baseline Su-25K and Su-25UBK aircraft (that is, the original downgraded export version and it's trainer counterpart).

Of Armenia's 16 Su-25s, 2 date back all the way to their Air Force's formation in 1992, and the aircraft date back to 1986-87. A third aircraft is a former Georgian Su-25K dating back to 1990. A further 3 date back to the early 1990s, and were delivered by Russia (a total of 6-10 Su-25s were delivered, but only 3 remain). The remaining 10 are ex-Slovak aircraft that flew from 1984 to 1994, were mothballed afterwards, and were sold to Armenia in 2004.

Almost none of these aircraft has undergone any substantial modernisation, and the older airframes are said to be at the end of their life. Moreover, Armenia is known to have shot down 4-7 of their own Su-25s during the 2020 war with Azerbaijan.

Armenia may not need a Su-25 replacement today, but that day isn't too far into the future. Arguably, the 10 ex-Slovak aircraft still have another decade left in them, but the oldest aircraft are at the point of retirement.

I am not saying that the Tejas should be the replacement for these, or that it is the best alternative for replacement. However, if they do want to look at replacements, the Tejas is probably one of the only aircraft types they can afford first-hand. Of course, one can always go for some other aircraft types second-hand, but with the Tejas, the best advantage they would get is that their weapons can be used.

P.S. Having read your last comment, I now realise that your original comment was in sarcasm, which was also why I was thinking why you were speaking such nonsense initially (as opposed to your normally very well-thought out views). Anyways, have a good one.

 

[RG]

With the limitation of producing Tejas due to GE engine dependency and production, it will be most likely Rafale. Unfortunatly but a reality.

 

[Apocalypse gupta]

The obvious weakness in this plan is that HAL can't deliver the Tejas in adequate numbers in a reasonable time frame. Let alone exports, they can't even complete committed deliveries to IAF...

dude, why is it HAL's fault. It will make plans after it is given an order. IAF was too late in giving order. If export orders come, then HAL will create additional production lines. I believe that a new line will take 3-4 years to set up. If armenia makes order now, HAL can start delivering them by 2027-28.

 

[Apocalypse gupta]

The best, cheap and affordable plan is to either buy brand new Sukhoi 30 jets or Mig 29 but if it's still too expensive for them then they should buy any second hand jets that Russia can give them. Russia also has a squadron of old Mig 29 air frames which can be used to speed up manufacturing more if needed.

getting jets from russia is not an option right now. Russia needs them for Ukraine, and after that to build up its own numbers for future conflict with NATO.

 

[Alok Gupta]

While the LCA would be a good choice, they should go for the Gripen NG. HAL still does not have the capacity to supply the IAF and will take 5-6 years to deliver to Armenia. Their needs are urgent and would be better fulfilled by Gripen.

 

[Akhil]

Exactly. GDP does not matter. What matters is the requirements of the country.

Brother he said, GDP per capita does not matter.

Nominal GDP matters for such requirements along with requirements.