Azerbaijan's JF-17 Deal – Will Armenia Counter with Rafale or LCA-Tejas Purchase?

The Caucasus region, a volatile crossroads between Europe and Asia, is once again experiencing a shift in its delicate power dynamics.

Azerbaijan's potential acquisition of advanced JF-17 Thunder fighter jets from Pakistan has triggered security concerns, highlighting Armenia's counter-moves and the wider geopolitical implications for the region.

Azerbaijan Upgrades, Armenia Seeks Answers​

Azerbaijan seeks to modernize its aging Soviet-era air force with a reported $1.5 billion deal for up to 40 JF-17 Thunder jets. This move reinforces lessons learned from recent conflicts in the Karabakh region, where the effective use of drones underscored the importance of air superiority.

In response to its 2020 defeat in Karabakh, Armenia has sought increased military support from India. This includes integrating Indian weaponry onto its existing Russian aircraft. However, Armenia's small fleet size may necessitate purchasing additional fighters to match Azerbaijan's growing capabilities.

India and France: Potential Suppliers, Uncertain Timelines​

India has been a key arms supplier to Armenia, but its own Tejas Mk1A fighters – a potential counter to the JF-17 – are in high demand domestically. Engine production bottlenecks further complicate any quick export deal.

France has also offered military support, with the possibility of supplying Rafale fighter jets. However, long production backlogs create significant wait times for Armenia.

The Wider Context​

Azerbaijan's JF-17 acquisition and Armenia's search for a countermeasure reflect the ongoing arms race within the Caucasus. India and France's involvement hints at the growing geopolitical interest in the region, where alliances and rivalries between larger powers often play out. The outcome of this fighter jet competition could significantly reshape the balance of power in this historically unstable region.

Conclusion​

The outcome of this fighter jet competition remains uncertain. Will Armenia acquire the necessary firepower to counter Azerbaijan's military advantage? Can India or France rise to the challenge, or will other players emerge?

The answers will not only define the future of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict but also set the stage for power dynamics and security concerns in the wider Caucasus region for years to come.

 

[Apocalypse gupta]

Tejas could be a good choice for armenia since it is cheaper, while being highly capable and reliable at same time and it is also integrated with russian missiles already which armenia uses.

The limitations of tejas like range and payload is not big problem because armenia is a small country and it needs these jets mainly for air defence- countering azerbaijani drones and aircraft. This is the exact role (interceptor) that tejas was intended for.

Rafale is obviously a better option but it is too expensive and incompatible with russian systems than armenia is used too

 

[Guru]

India should give Armenia 40 HAL manufactured SU MKI armed with Astra and Rudra 2

 

[nakul1307]

HAL needs to step up production, GOI needs to sort out engine issues, Rafale needs to make in India

 

[nibba turtle]

why can't these two little countries live in peace?

 

[neil]

Tejas could be a good choice for armenia since it is cheaper, while being highly capable and reliable at same time and it is also integrated with russian missiles already which armenia uses.

The obvious weakness in this plan is that HAL can't deliver the Tejas in adequate numbers in a reasonable time frame. Let alone exports, they can't even complete committed deliveries to IAF...

 

[Bharat007]

Hal couldn't even meet required production rate of Tejas due to short sightedness of Govt. Had previous Govt. been a future oriented then IAF might have been fielding Tejas Mk3 by now. Even this present GoI is slow. All we see is politiks irrespective of any Govt. No one takes National Security as paramount and above their parties.

 

[ryan]

Rafale is an overkill for Junk 17 & also given the budgetary constrains of Armenia, they cant get it large numbers. Tejas 1A is best suited to counter Junk 17 & also they can purchase in good numbers. MoD must already capitalize on this opportunity with soft loans & a comprehensive weapon package to break the defence backbone of Ajarbaijani pigs for once for all

 

[Instant Karma]

Armenia needs

1. 1 sqardern of Tejas armed with Brahmos and ASTRA missiles.
2. 1 sqardern of Rafale fighters armed with meteor and mica missiles.

 

[NSR]

Rafale and its armaments are too expensive for Armenia to stomach at all.

May be cheaper and reconditioned older Rafales may fit its needs.
Perhaps, since Armenians are sort of like French Catholics, and France hates budding Caliph Eeeerrroooddgan, it may offer deep discounts to do geopolitical checkmating.

 

[Pink Panther]

Tejas could be a good choice for armenia since it is cheaper, while being highly capable and reliable at same time and it is also integrated with russian missiles already which armenia uses.

Armenia won’t be there if they wait for Tejas, it is better they get either Gripen or F16 Block 70/72, they can’t afford Rafale or Typhoon, may be we can upgrade Armenian Su-30’s to super Sukhoi and fit them with Brahmos, Rudram and Astra missiles and them Anti drone and missile defense systems along with Pinaka.

 

[De_SECULARISED]

why can't these two little countries live in peace?

The word peace ☮️ is only for naming their community, nothing with their strange 7_86lifestyle.
Aadat se mazboor.
They can't replace their DNA.

& here Pakistanis are getting UNSOLICITED preference Coz of their chopped_Peace not due to merits.

 

[Sudha]

Rafale is an overkill for Junk 17 & also given the budgetary constrains of Armenia, they cant get it large numbers. Tejas 1A is best suited to counter Junk 17 & also they can purchase in good numbers. MoD must already capitalize on this opportunity with soft loans & a comprehensive weapon package to break the defence backbone of Ajarbaijani pigs for once for all

But the screw driving is in "super efficient"🤣 HAL's hand. So it will take over a decade to deliver to Armenia.

 

[Sudha]

Hal couldn't even meet required production rate of Tejas due to short sightedness of Govt. Had previous Govt. been a future oriented then IAF might have been fielding Tejas Mk3 by now. Even this present GoI is slow. All we see is politiks irrespective of any Govt. No one takes National Security as paramount and above their parties.

Are you from planet X? HAL is yet to completely deliver 40 Tejas ordered way back prior to 2015. 9 years & only 33 planes delivered. So the average per year is lower than 4 planes delivered. And you have the gumption to blame GOI for this? So who is slow? It is HAL as well as you (to know the truth) who are slow.

 

[Sudha]

why can't these two little countries live in peace?

Because one is populated by bar bar ic desert cu lt followers.

 

[Sudha]

Tejas could be a good choice for armenia since it is cheaper, while being highly capable and reliable at same time and it is also integrated with russian missiles already which armenia uses.

You have forgotten that HAL is screw driving the Tejas & are you aware that they have to yet deliver first 40 Tejas mk1 ordered way back in early 2010s? So when Armenia gets the planes no nation by the name Armenia will exist.

 

[Straight]

India can consider selling their mig 21- bison given tejas constraints

 

[Anant]

The Rafale is well and truly past Armenia's means to purchase in any decent numbers. Croatia paid just over 100 million USD for each Rafale they procured second-hand from France. In such a scenario, just 15 Rafales at the same price would constitute Armenia's entire defence budget. No, Rafales are out of the question.

As for the Tejas, it is an interesting proposition. At between 30 and 40 million USD per aircraft, it is a far more affordable choice. However, if you assume Armenia decided to replace their Su-25s on a one-for-one basis with the Tejas, that still translates to some 600 million dollars or so, which is pretty much the annual budget of the Armenian Air Force. What might happen is that we could pitch the Tejas to them as a trainer / combat-capable fighter. Pair up a few soft loans, and we may just about be able to pull it off.

 

[Anant]

India should give Armenia 40 HAL manufactured SU MKI armed with Astra and Rudra 2

Absolutely not! Firstly, who is going to foot the bill for 40 more Su-30MKIs? Secondly, even if you assume we just give them 40 Su-30s, you do realise Armenia does not have the infrastructure nor the finances nor the manpower to operate and maintain 40 fighters, right? There is a reason they have never exceeded 20 fighters. That's about as much as they manage.

A better idea would be an offer to upgrade Armenia's 4 Su-30SMs to the Super Sukhoi Su-30MKI standard once that program is underway.

 

[Anant]

HAL needs to step up production, GOI needs to sort out engine issues, Rafale needs to make in India

Give Dassault the MRFA order for 114 aircraft, and they have said before as well that they are more than happy to set up a production line in India.