Azerbaijan's JF-17 Deal – Will Armenia Counter with Rafale or LCA-Tejas Purchase?

The Caucasus region, a volatile crossroads between Europe and Asia, is once again experiencing a shift in its delicate power dynamics.

Azerbaijan's potential acquisition of advanced JF-17 Thunder fighter jets from Pakistan has triggered security concerns, highlighting Armenia's counter-moves and the wider geopolitical implications for the region.

Azerbaijan Upgrades, Armenia Seeks Answers​

Azerbaijan seeks to modernize its aging Soviet-era air force with a reported $1.5 billion deal for up to 40 JF-17 Thunder jets. This move reinforces lessons learned from recent conflicts in the Karabakh region, where the effective use of drones underscored the importance of air superiority.

In response to its 2020 defeat in Karabakh, Armenia has sought increased military support from India. This includes integrating Indian weaponry onto its existing Russian aircraft. However, Armenia's small fleet size may necessitate purchasing additional fighters to match Azerbaijan's growing capabilities.

India and France: Potential Suppliers, Uncertain Timelines​

India has been a key arms supplier to Armenia, but its own Tejas Mk1A fighters – a potential counter to the JF-17 – are in high demand domestically. Engine production bottlenecks further complicate any quick export deal.

France has also offered military support, with the possibility of supplying Rafale fighter jets. However, long production backlogs create significant wait times for Armenia.

The Wider Context​

Azerbaijan's JF-17 acquisition and Armenia's search for a countermeasure reflect the ongoing arms race within the Caucasus. India and France's involvement hints at the growing geopolitical interest in the region, where alliances and rivalries between larger powers often play out. The outcome of this fighter jet competition could significantly reshape the balance of power in this historically unstable region.

Conclusion​

The outcome of this fighter jet competition remains uncertain. Will Armenia acquire the necessary firepower to counter Azerbaijan's military advantage? Can India or France rise to the challenge, or will other players emerge?

The answers will not only define the future of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict but also set the stage for power dynamics and security concerns in the wider Caucasus region for years to come.

 

[Pad UwU]

Tejas could be a good choice for armenia since it is cheaper, while being highly capable and reliable at same time and it is also integrated with russian missiles already which armenia uses.

HAL can't even deliver Tejas mk1a on time so writing this article is a waste of time, add it up with GE production problem 😹😹😹

 

[Pad UwU]

Boring article 😹😹😹
We know HAL is screwdring Tejas while GE is having bad day of their life😺
Whatda heck rafale is stupid choi very expensive for small country same to typhoon....
F16, su30sm or Gripen might be good.... Alternative IMHO

 

[Anil Kumar]

Can anyone please tell what's HAL's current production rate of LCA annually, 2, 4 or 6

 

[Amit Ray]

Can you please show where has Pakistan complained about it?

Why should one show to you?? If you want to know search for yourself.

 

[Anant]

Exactly. GDP does not matter. What matters is the requirements of the country.

Requirements matter, yes. However, there is one thing that should be noted here. Armenia's Su-25s are exceptionally old, and as best I have found, have never been modernised. These are baseline Su-25K and Su-25UBK aircraft (that is, the original downgraded export version and it's trainer counterpart).

Of Armenia's 16 Su-25s, 2 date back all the way to their Air Force's formation in 1992, and the aircraft date back to 1986-87. A third aircraft is a former Georgian Su-25K dating back to 1990. A further 3 date back to the early 1990s, and were delivered by Russia (a total of 6-10 Su-25s were delivered, but only 3 remain). The remaining 10 are ex-Slovak aircraft that flew from 1984 to 1994, were mothballed afterwards, and were sold to Armenia in 2004.

Almost none of these aircraft has undergone any substantial modernisation, and the older airframes are said to be at the end of their life. Moreover, Armenia is known to have shot down 4-7 of their own Su-25s during the 2020 war with Azerbaijan.

Armenia may not need a Su-25 replacement today, but that day isn't too far into the future. Arguably, the 10 ex-Slovak aircraft still have another decade left in them, but the oldest aircraft are at the point of retirement.

I am not saying that the Tejas should be the replacement for these, or that it is the best alternative for replacement. However, if they do want to look at replacements, the Tejas is probably one of the only aircraft types they can afford first-hand. Of course, one can always go for some other aircraft types second-hand, but with the Tejas, the best advantage they would get is that their weapons can be used.

P.S. Having read your last comment, I now realise that your original comment was in sarcasm, which was also why I was thinking why you were speaking such nonsense initially (as opposed to your normally very well-thought out views). Anyways, have a good one.

 

[RG]

With the limitation of producing Tejas due to GE engine dependency and production, it will be most likely Rafale. Unfortunatly but a reality.

 

[Apocalypse gupta]

The obvious weakness in this plan is that HAL can't deliver the Tejas in adequate numbers in a reasonable time frame. Let alone exports, they can't even complete committed deliveries to IAF...

dude, why is it HAL's fault. It will make plans after it is given an order. IAF was too late in giving order. If export orders come, then HAL will create additional production lines. I believe that a new line will take 3-4 years to set up. If armenia makes order now, HAL can start delivering them by 2027-28.

 

[Apocalypse gupta]

The best, cheap and affordable plan is to either buy brand new Sukhoi 30 jets or Mig 29 but if it's still too expensive for them then they should buy any second hand jets that Russia can give them. Russia also has a squadron of old Mig 29 air frames which can be used to speed up manufacturing more if needed.

getting jets from russia is not an option right now. Russia needs them for Ukraine, and after that to build up its own numbers for future conflict with NATO.

 

[Alok Gupta]

While the LCA would be a good choice, they should go for the Gripen NG. HAL still does not have the capacity to supply the IAF and will take 5-6 years to deliver to Armenia. Their needs are urgent and would be better fulfilled by Gripen.

 

[Akhil]

Exactly. GDP does not matter. What matters is the requirements of the country.

Brother he said, GDP per capita does not matter.

Nominal GDP matters for such requirements along with requirements.

 

[Akshat]

Why should one show to you?? If you want to know search for yourself.

I did. There is not even a single such comment online. That’s why I asked him politely to show me where did he get such information from.

 

[Sandeep]

getting jets from russia is not an option right now. Russia needs them for Ukraine, and after that to build up its own numbers for future conflict with NATO.

Russia still have their large manufacturing capability as they are selling brand new Sukhoi 35 to Iran and recently they will deliver some Sukhoi 30 to Myanmar that they ordered. Also most of their air force is intact and have suffered only a few losses and those have been older Sukhoi variants and some Migs variants. So the possibility is there and they could negotiate a lower price as Russia needs the money to sustain the war.

 

[Apocalypse gupta]

Russia still have their large manufacturing capability as they are selling brand new Sukhoi 35 to Iran and recently they will deliver some Sukhoi 30 to Myanmar that they ordered. Also most of their air force is intact and have suffered only a few losses and those have been older Sukhoi variants and some Migs variants. So the possibility is there and they could negotiate a lower price as Russia needs the money to sustain the war.

na, Russia is barely making enough warplanes to replenish there losses in ukraine. And relations between armenia and russia are at an all time low. Russia has to look at future war with NATO. russia cant afford to sell a dozen SU 30 or 35 to armenia, Regarding sales to iran or myanmar- Iran has supplied a huge amount of drones and missiles to russia. regarding myanmar, i dont know, it might be because they have a previous contract from before the war. But even then it cant be more than 2-3 jets.

 

[Ajath]

Stop dreaming - India is not going to get the deal.

Nothing wrong in dreaming for the right cause.
And India will not loose sleep over it.

 

[Ajath]

If we do get that deal, it will be for a dozen or so Tejas aircraft. The profits from that aren't going to go too far if you want to upgrade capacity with it.

I said the money from the deal if it goes through can contribute to expansion of TEJAS assembly lines.