Azerbaijan's JF-17 Deal – Will Armenia Counter with Rafale or LCA-Tejas Purchase?

The Caucasus region, a volatile crossroads between Europe and Asia, is once again experiencing a shift in its delicate power dynamics.

Azerbaijan's potential acquisition of advanced JF-17 Thunder fighter jets from Pakistan has triggered security concerns, highlighting Armenia's counter-moves and the wider geopolitical implications for the region.

Azerbaijan Upgrades, Armenia Seeks Answers​

Azerbaijan seeks to modernize its aging Soviet-era air force with a reported $1.5 billion deal for up to 40 JF-17 Thunder jets. This move reinforces lessons learned from recent conflicts in the Karabakh region, where the effective use of drones underscored the importance of air superiority.

In response to its 2020 defeat in Karabakh, Armenia has sought increased military support from India. This includes integrating Indian weaponry onto its existing Russian aircraft. However, Armenia's small fleet size may necessitate purchasing additional fighters to match Azerbaijan's growing capabilities.

India and France: Potential Suppliers, Uncertain Timelines​

India has been a key arms supplier to Armenia, but its own Tejas Mk1A fighters – a potential counter to the JF-17 – are in high demand domestically. Engine production bottlenecks further complicate any quick export deal.

France has also offered military support, with the possibility of supplying Rafale fighter jets. However, long production backlogs create significant wait times for Armenia.

The Wider Context​

Azerbaijan's JF-17 acquisition and Armenia's search for a countermeasure reflect the ongoing arms race within the Caucasus. India and France's involvement hints at the growing geopolitical interest in the region, where alliances and rivalries between larger powers often play out. The outcome of this fighter jet competition could significantly reshape the balance of power in this historically unstable region.

Conclusion​

The outcome of this fighter jet competition remains uncertain. Will Armenia acquire the necessary firepower to counter Azerbaijan's military advantage? Can India or France rise to the challenge, or will other players emerge?

The answers will not only define the future of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict but also set the stage for power dynamics and security concerns in the wider Caucasus region for years to come.

 

[Akshat]

Why should one show to you?? If you want to know search for yourself.

I did. There is not even a single such comment online. That’s why I asked him politely to show me where did he get such information from.

 

[Sandeep]

getting jets from russia is not an option right now. Russia needs them for Ukraine, and after that to build up its own numbers for future conflict with NATO.

Russia still have their large manufacturing capability as they are selling brand new Sukhoi 35 to Iran and recently they will deliver some Sukhoi 30 to Myanmar that they ordered. Also most of their air force is intact and have suffered only a few losses and those have been older Sukhoi variants and some Migs variants. So the possibility is there and they could negotiate a lower price as Russia needs the money to sustain the war.

 

[Apocalypse gupta]

Russia still have their large manufacturing capability as they are selling brand new Sukhoi 35 to Iran and recently they will deliver some Sukhoi 30 to Myanmar that they ordered. Also most of their air force is intact and have suffered only a few losses and those have been older Sukhoi variants and some Migs variants. So the possibility is there and they could negotiate a lower price as Russia needs the money to sustain the war.

na, Russia is barely making enough warplanes to replenish there losses in ukraine. And relations between armenia and russia are at an all time low. Russia has to look at future war with NATO. russia cant afford to sell a dozen SU 30 or 35 to armenia, Regarding sales to iran or myanmar- Iran has supplied a huge amount of drones and missiles to russia. regarding myanmar, i dont know, it might be because they have a previous contract from before the war. But even then it cant be more than 2-3 jets.

 

[Ajath]

Stop dreaming - India is not going to get the deal.

Nothing wrong in dreaming for the right cause.
And India will not loose sleep over it.

 

[Ajath]

If we do get that deal, it will be for a dozen or so Tejas aircraft. The profits from that aren't going to go too far if you want to upgrade capacity with it.

I said the money from the deal if it goes through can contribute to expansion of TEJAS assembly lines.