Can India Afford to 'Make' 114 Rafales in India? Experts Raise Concerns

Defence experts in India have raised concerns about the financial and strategic implications of the potential acquisition of 114 Rafale fighter jets under the country's Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) tender. The projected cost, as well as the impact on other crucial Indian defence programs, has sparked debate.

Analysts estimate the total cost of 114 Rafales to be approximately $25 billion, which could severely strain India's defence budget. This massive expenditure, some argue, may necessitate cutbacks or delays for other essential domestic programs like the development of the Tejas MkII and the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) fighter jets.

Moreover, experts doubt the practicality of the "Make in India" aspect of the deal. They contend that locally manufacturing Rafales would likely be 20-30% more expensive than building them in France. Setting up production in India would necessitate significant infrastructure, specialized equipment, and potentially inflated prices from Dassault Aviation.

The potential deal's reliance on Dassault relocating its entire production line to India is also viewed skeptically. Industry insiders argue that Dassault has likely recouped investments in its existing French facilities, making such a move commercially unappealing.

The analysis raises serious questions about the long-term viability of acquiring 114 Rafale jets under the MRFA tender. The Indian government will need to weigh the potential financial burden against the strategic advantages of such a purchase.

Alternative solutions, including the possibility of reducing the number of aircraft procured, may need to be considered to ensure fiscal responsibility and safeguard the future of India's domestic defence industry.

 

[Bikramjeet Goswami]

While the cost aspect is certainly concerning, the following should be noted:

1. As of today, the IAF has 30 active fighter squadrons. These comprise 13 Su-30MKI squadrons, 2 Tejas squadrons, 2 Rafale squadrons, 3 Mirage 2000 squadrons, 2 MiG-29 squadrons, 6 Jaguar squadrons, and 2 MiG-21 squadrons. Of these, the 2 MiG-21 squadrons will be retire / changeover in 2025, followed by the 6 Jaguar squadrons between 2028 and 2035, and the 5 Mirage 2000 and MiG-29 squadrons between 2036 and 2040.
2. If we go by HAL's promises (which is an insanely optimistic thing to do, but I'll cover that in a bit), Tejas Mk 1A production is to be scaled up to 16 by 2025-26, and up to 24 by 2028-29. Even if those numbers are achieved, and we assume HAL will deliver 8 aircraft in 2024-25 (that is, by the end of March next year), the 180 Tejas Mk 1As (83+97) will only be delivered in 2033-34. Note that this figure assumes that the stated production numbers are achieved and capacity for other projects such as the Tejas Mk 2 and AMCA are completely independent. This won't be the case, so we shall take this into account.
3. If Tejas Mk 2 production starts in 2031-32, and HAL can deliver 8 jets a year till 2033-34 and 16 in 2034-35 (both overly optimistic), by 2034-35, we would have 40 aircraft.
4. Therefore, combining Points 2 and 3, we see that by 2034-35 (that is, the year when the last Jaguar squadron would be planned for retirement), we would have 180 Tejas Mk 1As and 40 Tejas Mk 2s. That makes for 10-11 active squadrons. Compared to today, we have retired 8 squadrons. Therefore, the IAF would now be at 32-33 squadrons, far short of the 42 squadron target.
5. Let's further assume that the conclusion of Tejas Mk 1A production allows for one line (8 aircraft) to be switched over to the Tejas Mk 2, with the remaining two lines going to AMCA. This would allow for 24 Tejas Mk 2 aircraft to be built from 2036-37. Let's also assume AMCA production starts at 8 aircraft in 2034-35, and scales up to 16 from 2036-37.
6. By 2040, when the last of the Mirage 2000s and MiG-29s have left service, we now have a further (as compared to 2034-35) 122 Tejas Mk 2 and 80 AMCA. That makes for 10 active squadrons. This puts the IAF at 37-38 squadrons by 2040, which is still short of the 42 squadron target.
7. Assuming Tejas Mk 2 production caps at 200 aircraft, production would cease in 2042. By that point, we would have a further (as compared to 2040) 32-40 AMCA. That puts the IAF at 41-42 squadrons, which is barely scratching the target.
8. By the early 2040s, the Su-30MKI would be nearing the end of its lifespan, and retirements would start around 2043 (to allow for 1 squadron to be retired each year, for a final retirement in 2055). Thus, the 42 squadron target would only sustainably be achieved in the late 2040s.

Based on the above points, it is clear that indigenous production (even at its most optimistic) may well not be enough. That is to say nothing about the calls to increase that target to 51-60 squadrons to account for the increased strength of the Air Forces of China and Bhikaristan.

Now, coming to practical considerations (as I referred to above):

A. HAL's claims are not sustainable for the simple reason that putting those capacities together would reach 32 aircraft a year by the start of the 2030s, and would further increase to 56 aircraft a year by 2036 (adding TEDBF production).

B. Engine bottleneck concerns, be it for F404 deliveries or for local manufacturing of the F414 or the 110 kN engine, have not been considered here. To manufacture 54 aircraft a year by the late 2030s or early 2040s, we would need 120+ engines (80 for the 40 twin-engined aircraft + 24 for the 24 single-engined aircraft + spares for the IAF). That is a very massive capacity requirement.

A more realistic estimate would be to assume a (still optimistic) 75% production efficiency for HAL. That would mean Tejas Mk 1A production would cease in 2036-37, Tejas Mk 2 production would cease in 2046-47, and AMCA would reach 168 aircraft by 2047, with TEDBF production standing at 108 by that point. That puts us at 42 squadrons in total by 2047, taking into consideration Su-30MKI retirement.

Now, coming to the cost aspects: The Rafale is a very expensive fighter, and we know for a fact that local production does tend to cost more. However, as evident by the numbers presented above, we really do not have any alternative to MRFA. This is a bullet we must bite, like it or not. If we take an aircraft other than the Rafale for MRFA (say, the F-21) for lower costs, we face the problem that we are facing with the Mirage 2000 today: Difficulty in sourcing spares.

Like it or not, this is a bullet we must bite for the costs, unless we are willing to take the aforementioned logistical headache 20 years down the line.

Or we can negotiate with Russia for favourable terms on the production/purchase of more Sukhoi 30's. Buy, develop, steal tech for further upgrades to the plarform, the logistics of the Sukhoi is already well established.

 

[Chand Ashok]

India's adversary like China & Pakistan do not follow long delaying procedures of tendering for acquisition of Fighters. Chinese PLF is already slated to induct 500 J-20 fighters and deploy 200 of these against India. Even if we don't consider J-20 to be true 5th gen fighter it is atleast 4.5 gen fighter and we need Rafael to tackle them since Tejas mk-2 will not reach induction stage before 2030. Additionally they will also deploy FC-31 near LAC and provide good no to Pakistanis. Hence only a short sighted person or someone sponsored by Chinese/ Pakistan Or rival Vendor Company will misguide asking to give up on Rafael. Rather with imminent shortage of fighter squadrons India should look to induct 200 of these fighters under make in India setting up a full scale hi tech assembly line locally. Later on HAL can utilize this assembly line to speed up production of Tejas mk-2, AMCA & TEDBF.

 

[Arz786]

While the cost aspect is certainly concerning, the following should be noted:

1. As of today, the IAF has 30 active fighter squadrons. These comprise 13 Su-30MKI squadrons, 2 Tejas squadrons, 2 Rafale squadrons, 3 Mirage 2000 squadrons, 2 MiG-29 squadrons, 6 Jaguar squadrons, and 2 MiG-21 squadrons. Of these, the 2 MiG-21 squadrons will be retire / changeover in 2025, followed by the 6 Jaguar squadrons between 2028 and 2035, and the 5 Mirage 2000 and MiG-29 squadrons between 2036 and 2040.
2. If we go by HAL's promises (which is an insanely optimistic thing to do, but I'll cover that in a bit), Tejas Mk 1A production is to be scaled up to 16 by 2025-26, and up to 24 by 2028-29. Even if those numbers are achieved, and we assume HAL will deliver 8 aircraft in 2024-25 (that is, by the end of March next year), the 180 Tejas Mk 1As (83+97) will only be delivered in 2033-34. Note that this figure assumes that the stated production numbers are achieved and capacity for other projects such as the Tejas Mk 2 and AMCA are completely independent. This won't be the case, so we shall take this into account.
3. If Tejas Mk 2 production starts in 2031-32, and HAL can deliver 8 jets a year till 2033-34 and 16 in 2034-35 (both overly optimistic), by 2034-35, we would have 40 aircraft.
4. Therefore, combining Points 2 and 3, we see that by 2034-35 (that is, the year when the last Jaguar squadron would be planned for retirement), we would have 180 Tejas Mk 1As and 40 Tejas Mk 2s. That makes for 10-11 active squadrons. Compared to today, we have retired 8 squadrons. Therefore, the IAF would now be at 32-33 squadrons, far short of the 42 squadron target.
5. Let's further assume that the conclusion of Tejas Mk 1A production allows for one line (8 aircraft) to be switched over to the Tejas Mk 2, with the remaining two lines going to AMCA. This would allow for 24 Tejas Mk 2 aircraft to be built from 2036-37. Let's also assume AMCA production starts at 8 aircraft in 2034-35, and scales up to 16 from 2036-37.
6. By 2040, when the last of the Mirage 2000s and MiG-29s have left service, we now have a further (as compared to 2034-35) 122 Tejas Mk 2 and 80 AMCA. That makes for 10 active squadrons. This puts the IAF at 37-38 squadrons by 2040, which is still short of the 42 squadron target.
7. Assuming Tejas Mk 2 production caps at 200 aircraft, production would cease in 2042. By that point, we would have a further (as compared to 2040) 32-40 AMCA. That puts the IAF at 41-42 squadrons, which is barely scratching the target.
8. By the early 2040s, the Su-30MKI would be nearing the end of its lifespan, and retirements would start around 2043 (to allow for 1 squadron to be retired each year, for a final retirement in 2055). Thus, the 42 squadron target would only sustainably be achieved in the late 2040s.

Based on the above points, it is clear that indigenous production (even at its most optimistic) may well not be enough. That is to say nothing about the calls to increase that target to 51-60 squadrons to account for the increased strength of the Air Forces of China and Bhikaristan.

Now, coming to practical considerations (as I referred to above):

A. HAL's claims are not sustainable for the simple reason that putting those capacities together would reach 32 aircraft a year by the start of the 2030s, and would further increase to 56 aircraft a year by 2036 (adding TEDBF production).

B. Engine bottleneck concerns, be it for F404 deliveries or for local manufacturing of the F414 or the 110 kN engine, have not been considered here. To manufacture 54 aircraft a year by the late 2030s or early 2040s, we would need 120+ engines (80 for the 40 twin-engined aircraft + 24 for the 24 single-engined aircraft + spares for the IAF). That is a very massive capacity requirement.

A more realistic estimate would be to assume a (still optimistic) 75% production efficiency for HAL. That would mean Tejas Mk 1A production would cease in 2036-37, Tejas Mk 2 production would cease in 2046-47, and AMCA would reach 168 aircraft by 2047, with TEDBF production standing at 108 by that point. That puts us at 42 squadrons in total by 2047, taking into consideration Su-30MKI retirement.

Now, coming to the cost aspects: The Rafale is a very expensive fighter, and we know for a fact that local production does tend to cost more. However, as evident by the numbers presented above, we really do not have any alternative to MRFA. This is a bullet we must bite, like it or not. If we take an aircraft other than the Rafale for MRFA (say, the F-21) for lower costs, we face the problem that we are facing with the Mirage 2000 today: Difficulty in sourcing spares.

Like it or not, this is a bullet we must bite for the costs, unless we are willing to take the aforementioned logistical headache 20 years down the line.

Excellent commentary. Further, with regard to cost, it may be noted that $25 billion for 114 aircrafts will not have to be paid in one go, but will be spread over several years. After we sign the contract for local production, at least three years will be needed to set up the assembly line and the first aircraft will roll out only after four or five years after contract. Assuming 16 aircrafts per year capacity, it will take 7 years to produce 114 aircrafts, after the first aircraft is rolled out. That means, this $25 billion will be paid over a period of 5+7=12 years. That works out to be, on average, an allocation of $2 billion approx from IAF capita acquisition budget under head of aircraft and aero engines. IN 2024, our allocation under capital acquisition budget for IAF aircraft and aero engine is Rs. 40,000 crores+, or $ 5 billion approx. Further, if we maintain a GDP growth rate of 6-7%, and maintain a defence budget of around 2% of GDP, then, this capital budget is also expected to grow at a rate of 6-7% per year in USD term. Therefore, the budgetary stress will not be as severe as it is being made out to be.

 

[desigandu]

We should buy only 114 rafales .because we already 36 and 26 for navy is already selected. F35 is a complete failure
No country has purchased f35. F15 ex is a 4th gem fighter with large rcs. And make in india more important than the security of the country. Except f22 no fighter can match rafales.

FYI - eventually there may be 2500+ F-35s (there are more than 1000 flying today) flying around globally with US and its allies...I think India should reduce MRFA and also buy F-35s A/B/C all versions for IAF and IN carriers (and LPDs), while cancelling TEDBF.

 

[Sudha]

Absolute best not to waste money on expensive foreign 4th gen platform, better to cancel MRFA and add more hangers in HAL to make more 4th Gen MK2's, at the most another 36 Rafale's could be bought off the shelf, even that would cost $10Bln.

Adding more hangars in HAL will not make any difference. They will deliver as usual in a snail's pace.

 

[Sudha]

Biggest blunder done by the government when we settled for 36 Rafale fighters instead of the 126 TOT transfer and local manufacturing.

Everyone knows the story behind that, HAL's productivity. So chill.

 

[Sudha]

Just purchase the technology of SU-57 & make 200-300 in India. Baat khatam. Koi jhig jhig hi nahi. AMCA,ORCA,TEDBF,MK I,MK II jab banega tab banega.... Yeh Western Countries kaa bahut natak jhelna padtay. Spares nahi, political angle, USA ko khush rakho. England ko Yes Sir, Yes Sir bolte raho. Upar se UN bolte rehta hai Kashmir Human rights, human rights.
Seedha SU-57, SU-75, MiG-41 assembly line establish karo India mein game khallas! 😎.
Barabar hai????? 15-4-2024 🙏🙏

Bharat's game khallas, khatham if anyone follows your advise.

 

[Ragu]

My suggestion is buying 3 squadron of F15Ex directly from Boeing and in the deal asking them to start a plant Boeing X-32 stealth fighter in India.
AMCA is still 20 years away. We can't buy F35. So runner-up X-32 is the most viable option, provided USA agreed to share stealth Technology.

Yes BUYING F15 EX IS BEST OF INDIA ,IN 2/3SQUADONS
MAY BE F35 WOULD ALSO BE GOOD OPTION CONSIDERING THIER LOW COSTS COMPARED TO RAFAEL

 

[Lal M Khaidem]

We have to accept it that we can't make a 5th Generation fighter. Even if the design is viable then also HAL does not have technical expertise to absorb it ! Only viable option is asking a foreign help. China is out of question. Europe doesn't have the technology. Russian one is not true stealth. Now left with USA.
Only Boeing can share technology but they will ask price for it. Lockheed can't share technology as they have agreement with USA government.
We need foreign help for AMCA. Otherwise it will be still born

The Sentence "China is out of question" shows your ignorance. China doesn't have a 5th gen fighter as of now.. period.. If you believe J20 is a 5th gen fighter then you would probably be the only person in the world to believe that

 

[AK S]

Adding more hangars in HAL will not make any difference. They will deliver as usual in a snail's pace.

Great analysis.

So we should give $25B to France and hope maybe beg to get first fighter by 2030? MK2 might be very close to IOC by then.

Writing is on the wall … if it hasn’t happen in 20 years, it won’t happen anytime soon. Even RFP is not happening before first flight of Mk2 and AMCA. Thereafter a considered call will be taken - if indigenous options deliver on the promise, MRFA is dead.

 

[Ziang He]

The Tejas MK2 should be given priority as it will boost integral make in India as well as maintaining the defence budget,if the production of Mk2's can be brought in line earlier it will be more beneficial and cost effective.By my thaught if we coud intregate more advanced gen4 fighter technology in our own aircrafts it will be a better and feasible choice.

 

[AK S]

I don’t know why people come up with their own numbers.

Rafal, for France, costed $ 68 million in 2014 and was given to us for ~90 million usd in 2016. Since then the price has been relatively stable, at least going by the international sales figures.

As for Su30, the difference was about 50%. So goi g from 68 million, we can get the jets for around 100 million USD per jet.

As for the surge, Dassault has already gone from 1 jet per month to 2 jets this year. The projection is 3 jet per month by the end of this year. And their CEO says that they can easily climb to 4, if new orders come up. They still are maintaining the promise to deliver first jets within 3 years of signing the deal.

As for mk2 and all, the planes are simply non existent and won’t come before at least 2040. So MRFA is an existential requirement for us.

Only time will tell but French fries are flying.

The basis that Mk2 will come in 2040 and Dassault would produce 4 jets per month in a year are both fallacious and French propaganda.

RFP of MRFA will come after first flight of MK2 and maybe AMCA. A considered call will taken thereafter.

On numbers, we know how much we paid - $42m per plane just for India specific modifications. Here I hear $68m for the entire plane … it doesn’t add up. Ranesh certainly knows his number.

 

[AK S]

Everyone knows the story behind that, HAL's productivity. So chill.

Reason was it was costly and we didn’t want to commit that kind of money. Yes IAF wanted Dassault to take ownership of quality and Dassault was not ready.

HAL had been producing one aircraft per year per hangar for decades together. Expecting beyond that from HAL is stupidly. Put money in infra and more plane will come out - it’s as simple as that.

 

[SharmaJI-IITian]

Why do'nt we do one thing? Simple combine order of Airforce and Navy. Slighty reduce numbers from airforce approx 90 and rest 26 Rafale-M from Navy. As it will be strategic investment. First preference may be given to Navy while producing in India, as majority of the components are same.
Govt should think in that direction, as i like the idea of getting a top class fighter with an option of Integrating all Indian made weapons. In long run it should be a great option, and will surely diversify out investment and reduce the risk on new programs. But we should get good ToT from france with min cost for that. Production line may cater 25-50% of its capacity to the export orders after 6-7 years when more than 50% of our orders are fulfilled.

 

[AK S]

IAF may dream for 114 Rafales but they are not coming as GoI is focused on indigenous solutions. It is better IAF drops MRFA and goes for 36 additional Rafales that is feasible as a stopgap arrangement. If the process is delayed further by 3 more years, GoI will not approve any MRFA.

Very practical

 

[AK S]

Just purchase the technology of SU-57 & make 200-300 in India. Baat khatam. Koi jhig jhig hi nahi. AMCA,ORCA,TEDBF,MK I,MK II jab banega tab banega.... Yeh Western Countries kaa bahut natak jhelna padtay. Spares nahi, political angle, USA ko khush rakho. England ko Yes Sir, Yes Sir bolte raho. Upar se UN bolte rehta hai Kashmir Human rights, human rights.
Seedha SU-57, SU-75, MiG-41 assembly line establish karo India mein game khallas! 😎.
Barabar hai????? 15-4-2024 🙏🙏

We are not buying more planes from Russia… may be another squadron of Su30MKI and if we stretch, some MiG 29. Even that is fraught with lot of geopolitical risk.

 

[AK S]

Either this person is a USA funded Chandigarh lobby or he does not know anything. From where did he arrive at 25 billion. He is talking about support structure. He forgot that support structure and infrastructure for 127 aircrafts was already part of first deal( 2 billion )which is already available. For the weapons package, all the TOT for weapons has been transferred to BDL and now they are also integrating with Tejas. So special weapons package is not required if we go with Rafale.The cost breakdown for only the aircraft was 670 cores per aircraft as per documents placed in parliament .So if we apply the same cost it will be 670 x 114 =76380 cores i.e less than 10 billion. If we go for other aircraft we will need to pay for support structure and weapons package also. So if at all we are going for MRFA, it should be only Rafael as it will be cheaper than others.

Rafale would be cheaper than others and is the front runner. But figure of Rs. 670 Cr is really way off, more so if produced in India. You need lot more things with the fighter plane.

 

[Sunnyj]

Keep adding, improving and networking IADS. Make the rocket force just like coronastan. Build infinite cheap autonomous drones, missiles and ammunition factories underground beyond enemy reach. Buy Indonesias stake in KF21 as backup.

 

[AK S]

India's adversary like China & Pakistan do not follow long delaying procedures of tendering for acquisition of Fighters. Chinese PLF is already slated to induct 500 J-20 fighters and deploy 200 of these against India. Even if we don't consider J-20 to be true 5th gen fighter it is atleast 4.5 gen fighter and we need Rafael to tackle them since Tejas mk-2 will not reach induction stage before 2030. Additionally they will also deploy FC-31 near LAC and provide good no to Pakistanis. Hence only a short sighted person or someone sponsored by Chinese/ Pakistan Or rival Vendor Company will misguide asking to give up on Rafael. Rather with imminent shortage of fighter squadrons India should look to induct 200 of these fighters under make in India setting up a full scale hi tech assembly line locally. Later on HAL can utilize this assembly line to speed up production of Tejas mk-2, AMCA & TEDBF.

And who will pay the bill?

Ranesh is a credible analyst. Please don’t label him to suit your argument. Why should I not consider your argument as French lobbying or worse French propaganda?

 

[Akshat]

Only time will tell but French fries are flying.

The basis that Mk2 will come in 2040 and Dassault would produce 4 jets per month in a year are both fallacious and French propaganda.

RFP of MRFA will come after first flight of MK2 and maybe AMCA. A considered call will taken thereafter.

On numbers, we know how much we paid - $42m per plane just for India specific modifications. Here I hear $68m for the entire plane … it doesn’t add up. Ranesh certainly knows his number.

68 million is the number officially given in the French senate. That’s an official number so adding up isn’t an option.

No one even knows when mk2 or AMCA will even fly. So again a propaganda.

As for 4 jets, again it’s an official number given on record and unlike HAL chief, Dassault chief has stuck to his promises so far. So his word has credibility as he has delivered on time.

 

[Akshat]

The deal is simple.
If India can't afford it, India won't buy it.

That said, I do not trust Dassault to setup any assembly line for Rafale here in India. Why would they hurt their own prospects at retaining a cutting edge manufacturing and transfer a line of high-paying jobs to India?

Of course if India can’t afford it we won’t buy it. But what are our options? Mk2 won’t come till 2040. So won’t AMCA. Mk1a isn’t enough. Rafale is the cheapest jet that meets our requirements.

As for why, it’s simple. Orders. Russia did the same for Su30. Mig as well. US has also done it for F16 in the past. So that’s part of the game. You may shift 50 or 60% but that still gives you more jobs at home in the end, as compared to no orders.

 

[Tanishq Bafila]

You may or may not agree with a comment. But using filthy language is exposing your upbringing.

Well a keyboard warrior who doesn't get jokes and directly shoots his comments to someone's upbringing and their parents character shows the actual mindset of the keyboard warrior..

If you can't get jokes better stay away from the internet because it's definitely not a place for you better join a therapy to know how to take casual jokes , dear old grandpa.

 

[Mridul baruah]

Buying foreign fighters comes at a premium and there will always be a. Baggage attached. With the Americans they keep control over who can it be used against, French like you overpay for the fighters and upgrades and the Ruskies will keep some critical tech away from you. Atmanirbhar is the onky way... And unfortunately we have rely on babu mentality PSUs for that. We have some great engineers and talents...however most of them cannot survive the babu managed PSUs...they good ones are pushed out and hired by the likes of Boing and NASA.

 

[Mridul baruah]

Absolute best not to waste money on expensive foreign 4th gen platform, better to cancel MRFA and add more hangers in HAL to make more 4th Gen MK2's, at the most another 36 Rafale's could be bought off the shelf, even that would cost $10Bln.

You cannot defend against J10s and J20s with khayali fighter. You would need a real one that fires missiles...unfortunately Tejas MKII is a long way from that.

 

[beencensured]

While the cost aspect is certainly concerning, the following should be noted:

1. As of today, the IAF has 30 active fighter squadrons. These comprise 13 Su-30MKI squadrons, 2 Tejas squadrons, 2 Rafale squadrons, 3 Mirage 2000 squadrons, 2 MiG-29 squadrons, 6 Jaguar squadrons, and 2 MiG-21 squadrons. Of these, the 2 MiG-21 squadrons will be retire / changeover in 2025, followed by the 6 Jaguar squadrons between 2028 and 2035, and the 5 Mirage 2000 and MiG-29 squadrons between 2036 and 2040.
2. If we go by HAL's promises (which is an insanely optimistic thing to do, but I'll cover that in a bit), Tejas Mk 1A production is to be scaled up to 16 by 2025-26, and up to 24 by 2028-29. Even if those numbers are achieved, and we assume HAL will deliver 8 aircraft in 2024-25 (that is, by the end of March next year), the 180 Tejas Mk 1As (83+97) will only be delivered in 2033-34. Note that this figure assumes that the stated production numbers are achieved and capacity for other projects such as the Tejas Mk 2 and AMCA are completely independent. This won't be the case, so we shall take this into account.
3. If Tejas Mk 2 production starts in 2031-32, and HAL can deliver 8 jets a year till 2033-34 and 16 in 2034-35 (both overly optimistic), by 2034-35, we would have 40 aircraft.
4. Therefore, combining Points 2 and 3, we see that by 2034-35 (that is, the year when the last Jaguar squadron would be planned for retirement), we would have 180 Tejas Mk 1As and 40 Tejas Mk 2s. That makes for 10-11 active squadrons. Compared to today, we have retired 8 squadrons. Therefore, the IAF would now be at 32-33 squadrons, far short of the 42 squadron target.
5. Let's further assume that the conclusion of Tejas Mk 1A production allows for one line (8 aircraft) to be switched over to the Tejas Mk 2, with the remaining two lines going to AMCA. This would allow for 24 Tejas Mk 2 aircraft to be built from 2036-37. Let's also assume AMCA production starts at 8 aircraft in 2034-35, and scales up to 16 from 2036-37.
6. By 2040, when the last of the Mirage 2000s and MiG-29s have left service, we now have a further (as compared to 2034-35) 122 Tejas Mk 2 and 80 AMCA. That makes for 10 active squadrons. This puts the IAF at 37-38 squadrons by 2040, which is still short of the 42 squadron target.
7. Assuming Tejas Mk 2 production caps at 200 aircraft, production would cease in 2042. By that point, we would have a further (as compared to 2040) 32-40 AMCA. That puts the IAF at 41-42 squadrons, which is barely scratching the target.
8. By the early 2040s, the Su-30MKI would be nearing the end of its lifespan, and retirements would start around 2043 (to allow for 1 squadron to be retired each year, for a final retirement in 2055). Thus, the 42 squadron target would only sustainably be achieved in the late 2040s.

Based on the above points, it is clear that indigenous production (even at its most optimistic) may well not be enough. That is to say nothing about the calls to increase that target to 51-60 squadrons to account for the increased strength of the Air Forces of China and Bhikaristan.

Now, coming to practical considerations (as I referred to above):

A. HAL's claims are not sustainable for the simple reason that putting those capacities together would reach 32 aircraft a year by the start of the 2030s, and would further increase to 56 aircraft a year by 2036 (adding TEDBF production).

B. Engine bottleneck concerns, be it for F404 deliveries or for local manufacturing of the F414 or the 110 kN engine, have not been considered here. To manufacture 54 aircraft a year by the late 2030s or early 2040s, we would need 120+ engines (80 for the 40 twin-engined aircraft + 24 for the 24 single-engined aircraft + spares for the IAF). That is a very massive capacity requirement.

A more realistic estimate would be to assume a (still optimistic) 75% production efficiency for HAL. That would mean Tejas Mk 1A production would cease in 2036-37, Tejas Mk 2 production would cease in 2046-47, and AMCA would reach 168 aircraft by 2047, with TEDBF production standing at 108 by that point. That puts us at 42 squadrons in total by 2047, taking into consideration Su-30MKI retirement.

Now, coming to the cost aspects: The Rafale is a very expensive fighter, and we know for a fact that local production does tend to cost more. However, as evident by the numbers presented above, we really do not have any alternative to MRFA. This is a bullet we must bite, like it or not. If we take an aircraft other than the Rafale for MRFA (say, the F-21) for lower costs, we face the problem that we are facing with the Mirage 2000 today: Difficulty in sourcing spares.

Like it or not, this is a bullet we must bite for the costs, unless we are willing to take the aforementioned logistical headache 20 years down the line.

Your conclusion is just stupid, 25 billion dollars could give all projects a boost wasting on Rafale is loss to development. I think we should have at least 800 Tejas mk1a, by 2025 India will be third largest economy nominal and it is already third by purchasing parity. India then must do proper production and be a superpower.

 

[Gerald Menezes]

France taking India to cleaners unless situate Dassault in India and engines also manufactured in India and R&D in India to jointly manufacture planes in India. France has yet to comply with remaking balance of first purchases investment in India. Analyst is on the money!

 

[Tanishq Bafila]

Your conclusion is just stupid, 25 billion dollars could give all projects a boost wasting on Rafale is loss to development. I think we should have at least 800 Tejas mk1a, by 2025 India will be third largest economy nominal and it is already third by purchasing parity. India then must do proper production and be a superpower.

800 Tejas Mk1A ? 800 Tejas mk2 sounds good to me but surely not 800 Mk1A , Mk1A has many limits , it size doesn't allow to perform big upgrades in future , better increase the order size of LCA Mk2 and build Airforce force version of TEDBF , that will not just allow a continuous production rate but will also be the second best jet after AMCA in terms of technology and capability...

 

[beencensured]

800 Tejas Mk1A ? 800 Tejas mk2 sounds good to me but surely not 800 Mk1A , Mk1A has many limits , it size doesn't allow to perform big upgrades in future , better increase the order size of LCA Mk2 and build Airforce force version of TEDBF , that will not just allow a continuous production rate but will also be the second best jet after AMCA in terms of technology and capability...

Look for Tejas mk2 after 2030, I am saying increase Tejas mk1a as what we have on war footing.

 

[Tanishq Bafila]

While the cost aspect is certainly concerning, the following should be noted:

1. As of today, the IAF has 30 active fighter squadrons. These comprise 13 Su-30MKI squadrons, 2 Tejas squadrons, 2 Rafale squadrons, 3 Mirage 2000 squadrons, 2 MiG-29 squadrons, 6 Jaguar squadrons, and 2 MiG-21 squadrons. Of these, the 2 MiG-21 squadrons will be retire / changeover in 2025, followed by the 6 Jaguar squadrons between 2028 and 2035, and the 5 Mirage 2000 and MiG-29 squadrons between 2036 and 2040.
2. If we go by HAL's promises (which is an insanely optimistic thing to do, but I'll cover that in a bit), Tejas Mk 1A production is to be scaled up to 16 by 2025-26, and up to 24 by 2028-29. Even if those numbers are achieved, and we assume HAL will deliver 8 aircraft in 2024-25 (that is, by the end of March next year), the 180 Tejas Mk 1As (83+97) will only be delivered in 2033-34. Note that this figure assumes that the stated production numbers are achieved and capacity for other projects such as the Tejas Mk 2 and AMCA are completely independent. This won't be the case, so we shall take this into account.
3. If Tejas Mk 2 production starts in 2031-32, and HAL can deliver 8 jets a year till 2033-34 and 16 in 2034-35 (both overly optimistic), by 2034-35, we would have 40 aircraft.
4. Therefore, combining Points 2 and 3, we see that by 2034-35 (that is, the year when the last Jaguar squadron would be planned for retirement), we would have 180 Tejas Mk 1As and 40 Tejas Mk 2s. That makes for 10-11 active squadrons. Compared to today, we have retired 8 squadrons. Therefore, the IAF would now be at 32-33 squadrons, far short of the 42 squadron target.
5. Let's further assume that the conclusion of Tejas Mk 1A production allows for one line (8 aircraft) to be switched over to the Tejas Mk 2, with the remaining two lines going to AMCA. This would allow for 24 Tejas Mk 2 aircraft to be built from 2036-37. Let's also assume AMCA production starts at 8 aircraft in 2034-35, and scales up to 16 from 2036-37.
6. By 2040, when the last of the Mirage 2000s and MiG-29s have left service, we now have a further (as compared to 2034-35) 122 Tejas Mk 2 and 80 AMCA. That makes for 10 active squadrons. This puts the IAF at 37-38 squadrons by 2040, which is still short of the 42 squadron target.
7. Assuming Tejas Mk 2 production caps at 200 aircraft, production would cease in 2042. By that point, we would have a further (as compared to 2040) 32-40 AMCA. That puts the IAF at 41-42 squadrons, which is barely scratching the target.
8. By the early 2040s, the Su-30MKI would be nearing the end of its lifespan, and retirements would start around 2043 (to allow for 1 squadron to be retired each year, for a final retirement in 2055). Thus, the 42 squadron target would only sustainably be achieved in the late 2040s.

Based on the above points, it is clear that indigenous production (even at its most optimistic) may well not be enough. That is to say nothing about the calls to increase that target to 51-60 squadrons to account for the increased strength of the Air Forces of China and Bhikaristan.

Now, coming to practical considerations (as I referred to above):

A. HAL's claims are not sustainable for the simple reason that putting those capacities together would reach 32 aircraft a year by the start of the 2030s, and would further increase to 56 aircraft a year by 2036 (adding TEDBF production).

B. Engine bottleneck concerns, be it for F404 deliveries or for local manufacturing of the F414 or the 110 kN engine, have not been considered here. To manufacture 54 aircraft a year by the late 2030s or early 2040s, we would need 120+ engines (80 for the 40 twin-engined aircraft + 24 for the 24 single-engined aircraft + spares for the IAF). That is a very massive capacity requirement.

A more realistic estimate would be to assume a (still optimistic) 75% production efficiency for HAL. That would mean Tejas Mk 1A production would cease in 2036-37, Tejas Mk 2 production would cease in 2046-47, and AMCA would reach 168 aircraft by 2047, with TEDBF production standing at 108 by that point. That puts us at 42 squadrons in total by 2047, taking into consideration Su-30MKI retirement.

Now, coming to the cost aspects: The Rafale is a very expensive fighter, and we know for a fact that local production does tend to cost more. However, as evident by the numbers presented above, we really do not have any alternative to MRFA. This is a bullet we must bite, like it or not. If we take an aircraft other than the Rafale for MRFA (say, the F-21) for lower costs, we face the problem that we are facing with the Mirage 2000 today: Difficulty in sourcing spares.

Like it or not, this is a bullet we must bite for the costs, unless we are willing to take the aforementioned logistical headache 20 years down the line.

All points are correct but I would like to add few points...

Tejas Mk1A production will be based on the production rate of F404 same with Tejas mk2 & AMCA Mk1 having F414.

By 2035-37 a new 110Kn engine will be completely ready for production.. Indian defense ecosystem would be one of the most mature and capable industry in the world..

Considering the growth rate of Indian economy by early 2030's , Indian Airforce can easily give additional orders for LCA Mk-2 , Currently Airforce is hesitant to join TEDBF as it is already involved in 3 projects..

But any country & it's defence forces will back a indigenous option because you can't win a war through foreign products.. I am sure that Airforce will join TEDBF in early 2030's and make a airforce variant of it & it can go into production by 2035...

Also it will be second most technologically advanced jet in our inventory ahead of Rafale F4 as it will directly incorporate 5th gen tech from AMCA , so MOD would like to make the TEDBF project more feasible by making TEDBF airforce version..

There is no point of denying that once PAF adds J-31 to its inventory by late 2020s , IAF will surely order some foreign jets to tackle it..

It would be better to Order Rafales in 2 stopgap measures , order 1 lot of 36 jets in 2025/26 and in 2029/30 ( considering the progress rate of LCA Mk2 , TEDBF & AMCA ; and the future procurement of PAF )

Not to mention MOD will also upgrade the HAL production line in future to sustain the production rate & make DPSUs more efficient & private players will also be roped in

 

[Torontodude]

India's adversary like China & Pakistan do not follow long delaying procedures of tendering for acquisition of Fighters. Chinese PLF is already slated to induct 500 J-20 fighters and deploy 200 of these against India. Even if we don't consider J-20 to be true 5th gen fighter it is atleast 4.5 gen fighter and we need Rafael to tackle them since Tejas mk-2 will not reach induction stage before 2030. Additionally they will also deploy FC-31 near LAC and provide good no to Pakistanis. Hence only a short sighted person or someone sponsored by Chinese/ Pakistan Or rival Vendor Company will misguide asking to give up on Rafael. Rather with imminent shortage of fighter squadrons India should look to induct 200 of these fighters under make in India setting up a full scale hi tech assembly line locally. Later on HAL can utilize this assembly line to speed up production of Tejas mk-2, AMCA & TEDBF.

In your argument you forgot a minor detail called money