Opinion How 114 Rafale Deal to Transform India's Local Defence Manufacturing and Global Supply-Chain Dynamics

The visit of French President Emmanuel Macron to India this week marks a pivotal moment in international aerospace politics.

While the AI Impact Summit and high-level diplomatic talks are on the agenda, the centerpiece of the visit is the anticipated finalisation of the Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) program.

Following years of strategic planning and bureaucratic navigation, the Indian government recently cleared the proposal for 114 Rafale fighter jets, with formal agreements expected between February 17 and 20, 2026.

A Landmark Shift in Defence Procurement​

This agreement represents far more than a standard arms acquisition; it is a cornerstone of India’s long-term defence modernisation.

The IAF's requirement for these jets stems from a decade-long need to phase out ageing fleets and maintain a qualitative edge in regional airspace.

India already operates a fleet of 36 Rafale jets and has previously committed to 26 naval Rafale-M variants.

With the addition of these 114 aircraft, India is set to become one of the world's premier operators of the French-made platform.

The deal, estimated to be valued between $35 billion and $40 billion, serves as a primary engine for the "Make in India" initiative.

Localisation and Economic Impact​

The structural highlight of the deal is the domestic production roadmap. While approximately 18 to 20 jets will be delivered directly from France by 2030, the remaining 94 aircraft are slated for assembly within India.

• Industrial Scaling: New manufacturing facilities will be established to handle the bulk of the order.
• Technological Transfer: India aims to achieve up to 80% indigenous content over the life of the program.
• Engine Manufacturing: Safran, the manufacturer of the M88 engine that powers the Rafale, is planning to establish local production lines. This move not only supports the Rafale fleet but provides a technical foundation for future indigenous Indian fighter programs.

This transition involves significant hurdles, including the cultivation of a highly skilled workforce and the establishment of rigorous quality control systems to match French aerospace standards.

Strained Global Supply Chains​

The sheer scale of the Indian order is set to recalibrate the global supply chain for Dassault Aviation. By the end of 2025, the company already maintained a substantial backlog of 220 aircraft. This new contract could push total orders beyond 330 units.

Metric	Current Status (Approx.)	Post-India Deal Impact
Firm Backlog	220 Aircraft	330+ Aircraft
Annual Production (2025)	26 Units	Target Increase Required
Indian Fleet Total	62 (36 Air Force + 26 Navy)	176+ Aircraft

While Dassault is working to accelerate production rates, the influx of Indian orders may result in extended waiting periods for other nations seeking the platform.

Implications for Global Security: The Ukraine Context​

The timeline for the Indian acquisition has significant secondary effects on other nations, most notably Ukraine. In late 2025, Kyiv expressed a formal intent to acquire up to 100 Rafales to bolster its aerial defence capabilities alongside other Western platforms.

However, with India securing priority slots on the French production lines for the first 20 units and locking in long-term technical resources for the remainder, Ukraine's potential delivery schedules may be delayed deep into the 2030s.

Much like India, Ukraine has explored local assembly models to bypass these bottlenecks, but the challenges of establishing high-tech manufacturing during an active conflict remain a formidable barrier.

 

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[SandeepGupta]

Redundant & Obsolete Rafaele deal for 168 planes (54 planes in future purchase as per clause) for 4.87 Lakh Crore is a big farce played on India and its people. India can get 1300 say 900 Mig 35 with 2.5x Soloviev D30 F6 Modernised Engines and 400 Su 57M2 with 2x AL 51 F Engines Russian planes in this amount. The deal reminds me of Hum movie khujanewala Naqli General Kader Khan purchased freshly painted expensive but kabad tanks from Anupam Kher.

 

[Vivek_Singh]

Rafale deal is important as the IAF current situation is extremely critical. Basically we just have a functioning fleet of Su30MKI and 36 Rafales which can survive till 2035...Jaguars, Mig29UPG and Mirage2000 are ageing and are scheduled to start the retired from 2028 till 2040. While our grand Tejas mk1 is severely underpowered for Frontline operations.

Decades of neglect in Tejas and Kaveri is now showing up on the face of Airforce. HAL is delayed by atleast 4 years for the delivery of mk1a and Tejas mk2 is still a pipe dream.

If we wont get the numbers now...IAF will linger around 28-29 squadron capacity till 2030 as Jaguars will start retiring from 2028-29 onwards, and then by the time we are in 2035..Mig29UPG and Mirages will be in pipeline for retirement. Even Su30MKIs will be crying for upgrades by 2035 and the airframe for some would be 30+ years old.

I also hope Airforce wakes up from their slumber and plan better like the Naval wing. They are always ahead of the game despite having least % of Defence budget.