India's Air Force (IAF) has experienced a significant reduction in its operational aircraft over the past decade, while neighboring China and Pakistan have simultaneously expanded their air capabilities.
This presents a growing challenge to India's regional air superiority and ability to respond to potential conflicts on two fronts.
Recent analysis, drawing on data from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) Military Balance report, highlighted this concerning trend.
Political scientist Christopher Clary from the University of Albany pointed out that between 2014 and 2024, China added 435 fighter and ground attack aircraft to its fleet. Pakistan also increased its fleet by 31 aircraft.
During the same period, India's fleet decreased by 151 aircraft.
The reduction in India's fighter jet numbers is largely due to the retirement of older, Soviet-era aircraft, such as the MiG-21. The rate of retiring these older planes has been faster than the introduction of new aircraft.
The IAF currently operates with 31 squadrons, significantly fewer than the 42 squadrons officially authorized, creating a clear capability gap. A squadron typically comprises 18-24 aircraft, depending on the type of aircraft and role.
To address this, India has initiated a substantial, mostly domestically-driven plan to add over 500 aircraft in the coming years. A key component of this plan is the domestically produced Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Tejas, manufactured by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL).
India has already placed orders for 83 Tejas Mark 1A jets with an additional 97 expected soon. Tejas is a versatile aircraft designed for both air-to-air and air-to-ground combat,
A more advanced version, the Tejas Mark 2, is also in development, offering increased payload capacity and range, though it is not expected to be operational for several years.
India's long-term strategy includes the development of a stealth fighter, the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), but this aircraft is still in the design phase and is at least a decade away from deployment.
In the short term, and to supplement its domestic programs, India is also pursuing the Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) program. This $20 billion project aims to acquire 114 multirole fighter jets from foreign manufacturers, such as Dassault (Rafale), Boeing (F/A-18 Super Hornet), or Lockheed Martin (F-21).
These aircraft would be built in India through a transfer-of-technology agreement, a strategy known as "Buy Global – Make in India." This approach seeks to rapidly increase the number of available aircraft while also enhancing India's own manufacturing capabilities.
However, the MRFA program has encountered challenges. Progress has been slow due to delays in finalizing the tender and the complexities of negotiating technology transfers and establishing local production. The success of this large and costly program depends on effectively partnering foreign aircraft manufacturers with Indian companies, a process that presents both logistical and political difficulties.
The overall situation is that while China and Pakistan have been increasing the size of their air forces, India's has been decreasing. While India has modern aircraft like the Mirage 2000, Jaguar, MiG-29, and 36 Rafale jets acquired in 2016, these are not enough to compensate for the loss of 151 aircraft.
The Tejas Mark 1A, and eventually the Mark 2, will help increase numbers, but their lighter design means they have limitations in payload and range, important factor when compare to others aircrafts in the region, such as China's J-20 or Pakistan's J-10C fighters, which is a concern that IAF must tackle to maintain regional power balance.
