IAF's 97 Mk1A Tejas Order Marks Major Step Towards 42-Squadron Goal

The Indian Air Force (IAF) is making significant strides toward its goal of operating 42 fighter squadrons with a major order of 97 advanced LCA Tejas Mk1A fighter jets.

This, along with other efforts, aims to modernize the IAF and address potential regional threats.

The Numbers Breakdown​

To achieve optimal air defense, the IAF desires 42 squadrons. However, it currently has only 31, and the previous target of reaching its goal by 2027 is looking unlikely.

The IAF already possesses 36 older Tejas Mk1 fighters with 18 Tejas trainers on order. The new Mk1A order will bring the total Tejas fleet to 224 aircraft by 2032-33, significantly boosting the IAF's fighter jet strength.

Beyond the Tejas​

While the Tejas order is a major step, the IAF isn't stopping there. It's awaiting approval for 114 more jets under the Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) program.

Additionally, it recently secured permission to purchase 12 new Su-30MKI fighter jets from Russia.

Understanding Squadrons and Retirements​

A typical IAF squadron consists of 18-20 fighters. With these planned additions, India expects to have around 314 jets by mid-2035.

However, older aircraft retirements must be factored in. Two MiG-21 squadrons will be retired by 2025, and two Jaguar squadrons by 2030.

The Long Road to 42​

To reach its ideal strength, the IAF will likely need at least two additional squadrons of the even more advanced Tejas MkII by 2033-34.

The substantial order for Tejas Mk1A fighters marks a critical step, but the path to 42 squadrons remains complex and will require continued investment.

 

[Anant]

"Most likely won't reach 42 squadrons by 2027", eh? I put it to you that this is an utter impossibility.

The IAF presently stands at 30 squadrons, which includes the 2 MiG-21 squadrons. These 2 squadrons will retire next year, which means the IAF would be down to 28 squadrons. Even of HAL can work some miracles, they would be able to deliver roughly 2 Tejas squadrons or so by 2027-28. That means the IAF would remain at 30 squadrons.

Oh, but it doesn't end there. The Jaguars are set to retire from 2027-28, so if we see one Jaguar squadron retiring in 2027-28, that brings us down to 29 squadrons. That's 12 to 13 squadrons, or roughly 230 to 250 jets below the target.

Mark my words: The IAF's strength is going to go down before it goes up. Also, without MRFA, we aren't going to reach 42 squadrons atleast for the next 18-20 years. Bring in MRFA, and that we might be able to reach 42 squadrons around 2040.

 

[sanket]

IAF should add more Air Defence system(Indigenous) .by the time MRFA start delivering fighter jets under Make in India.

 

[Frank]

Order 300 Tejas mk2 and cancel phoren maal MRFA...

The delivery timeline will be same anyway

Plus price of 300 mk2<<<<104 rafale

300mk2 ORDER WILL BE DEVIDED 50:50 BETWEEN HAL AND PRIVATE COMAPNY

 

[bonito]

Forget 97 Tejas. I had always been thinking it is only 10 trainers jet now after reading this I recollect it is 18. So that leaves us with just 23 F404 engines in stock. If by miracle HAL production rate increase to 8 from 3 by end of 2026 all the engines will be assembled into jets. Will GE ever start delivery the next set of orders and before that ? I am afraid this program will be stalled for want of engines.

Local assembly of F414 is atleast 5 yrs from here. Too too delayed to achieve 42 squadron strength.

 

[The_rED_dEVIL]

"Most likely won't reach 42 squadrons by 2027", eh? I put it to you that this is an utter impossibility.

The IAF presently stands at 30 squadrons, which includes the 2 MiG-21 squadrons. These 2 squadrons will retire next year, which means the IAF would be down to 28 squadrons. Even of HAL can work some miracles, they would be able to deliver roughly 2 Tejas squadrons or so by 2027-28. That means the IAF would remain at 30 squadrons.

Oh, but it doesn't end there. The Jaguars are set to retire from 2027-28, so if we see one Jaguar squadron retiring in 2027-28, that brings us down to 29 squadrons. That's 12 to 13 squadrons, or roughly 230 to 250 jets below the target.

Mark my words: The IAF's strength is going to go down before it goes up. Also, without MRFA, we aren't going to reach 42 squadrons atleast for the next 18-20 years. Bring in MRFA, and that we might be able to reach 42 squadrons around 2040.

Agreed.
We need total

1. Tejas Mk 1/1A - 220 units - 10 squadrons
2. Rafale - 36 units - 2 squadrons
3. Tejas Mk 2 ~ 110 units - 6 squadrons (MiG 29, Mirage, Jaguar replacement)
4. MRFA - 114 units - 6 squadrons
   And along with
5. MiG 29 ~ 75 units - 3 squadrons
6. Mirage 2000 ~ 50 units - 3 squadrons
7. Su 30 MKI - 272 units -12 squadrons

It will make 42 squadrons.
This should be ideal target for 2035.
(I dont think AMCA will be ready for induction by then)
Also, 6 more Mk 2 squadrons should be inducted by 2040 replacing MiG 29 and Mirage. Also, AMCA should be inducted by 2040.

Most important is F414 production deal.

 

[Akshat]

Agreed.
We need total

1. Tejas Mk 1/1A - 220 units - 10 squadrons
2. Rafale - 36 units - 2 squadrons
3. Tejas Mk 2 ~ 110 units - 6 squadrons (MiG 29, Mirage, Jaguar replacement)
4. MRFA - 114 units - 6 squadrons
   And along with
5. MiG 29 ~ 75 units - 3 squadrons
6. Mirage 2000 ~ 50 units - 3 squadrons
7. Su 30 MKI - 272 units -12 squadrons

It will make 42 squadrons.
This should be ideal target for 2035.
(I dont think AMCA will be ready for induction by then)
Also, 6 more Mk 2 squadrons should be inducted by 2040 replacing MiG 29 and Mirage. Also, AMCA should be inducted by 2040.

Most important is F414 production deal.

Tejas mk2 won’t even be ready for induction till 2040. So numbers need revision.

 

[Akshat]

If only ordering jets could have solved the problem. Manufacturing them is required and that can’t happen till the time HAL is involved. IAF has done its job. Mod has done its job. But HAL never could do their job.

 

[Vijigishu ( विजिग्शु )]

Only viable solution is to privatise HAL, give the management to consortium of 2-3 major pvt players like Tata/Mahindra/Kalyani/Adani etc. Govt should also fund pvt players for R&D like the US and Europe do.

 

[Tanishq Bafila]

Only viable solution is to privatise HAL, give the management to consortium of 2-3 major pvt players like Tata/Mahindra/Kalyani/Adani etc. Govt should also fund pvt players for R&D like the US and Europe do.

You know the market value of HAL ? You just can't sell it off

You want to give to TATA , Mahindra, Adani ? But the same so called big players are not joining SPV project for AMCA and IMRH where government is providing funds for the prototype..

Going privatisation is good but only if we have good private players in the business

 

[AK S]

Tejas mk2 won’t even be ready for induction till 2040. So numbers need revision.

Keep dreaming.

Most likely Mk2 will kill MRFA.

 

[Akshat]

Keep dreaming.

Most likely Mk2 will kill MRFA.

Yeah yeah. Dreaming are those who think mk2 will come on time. And they got crushed like how it was supposed to roll out in 2022 but they got so badly crushed by HAL. No chance before 2040 as history proves.

 

[Sandeep]

It's clear that we need to order a total of 200 Tejas MK1A, 200 Tejas MK2 and 200+ AMCA to increase our squadron numbers. At the same time they need to keep upgrading, maintaining and overhauling our current Mig 29 and Mirage 2000 jets to keep them in service for another decade until Tejas MK2 starts production.

We should also look to buy and upgrade any used Mirage 2000 or Mig 29 jets that still have a good amount of lifespan in them. We can also manufacture more Mig 29 or Sukhoi 30 jets to increase our fire power for a short period. Once crucial project that needs to happen as soon as possible is installing the Super Sukhoi program which will enhance its technology and capabilities even more.

Another possibility is that we can try and lease some of the older Rafale jets for around a decade if France allows it as it will increase our capabilities and fire power for a lower cost until we start manufacturing Tejas MK2 jets.

But we should leave the Jaguar jets alone as their capability in modern warfare is unreliable and we can't upgrade them to improve its performance either so they are ideal to be used as bombers to drop short range, guided, unguided or laser and precision guided bombs.

 

[Anant]

Agreed.
We need total

1. Tejas Mk 1/1A - 220 units - 10 squadrons
2. Rafale - 36 units - 2 squadrons
3. Tejas Mk 2 ~ 110 units - 6 squadrons (MiG 29, Mirage, Jaguar replacement)
4. MRFA - 114 units - 6 squadrons
   And along with
5. MiG 29 ~ 75 units - 3 squadrons
6. Mirage 2000 ~ 50 units - 3 squadrons
7. Su 30 MKI - 272 units -12 squadrons

It will make 42 squadrons.
This should be ideal target for 2035.
(I dont think AMCA will be ready for induction by then)
Also, 6 more Mk 2 squadrons should be inducted by 2040 replacing MiG 29 and Mirage. Also, AMCA should be inducted by 2040.

Most important is F414 production deal.

I agree, but to maintain 6 Tejas Mk 2 squadrons by 2035, you would need around 130 aircraft, which is highly unlikely. Then again, even if MRFA were signed today, we wouldn't have them all by 2035. A more realistic number for 2035 is as follows:

1. Tejas Mk 1/1A: 170 units in 8 squadrons.
2. Rafale: 36 in 2 squadrons.
3. Tejas Mk 2: 40 in 2 squadrons.
4. MRFA (best case scenario): 80 in 4 squadrons.
5. MiG-29: 70 units in 3 squadrons.
6. Mirage 2000: Around 60 units in 3 squadrons.
7. Su-30MKI: 272 units in 13 squadrons.
8. Jaguar: 40 units in 2 squadrons.

That brings total numbers to 35- 37 squadrons, depending on whether you count the Jaguars here. At this point, however, we would have having a massive retiral spree (8 squadrons), and some 7-8 squadrons coming in (2 for MRFA, 2 for the Tejas Mk 1/1A, and 3-4 for the Tejas Mk 2). Hence, hitting the 42 squadroj target isn't happening until atleast 2040, and if you remove MRFA and start factoring in Su-30 retirement starting in the second half of the 2040s, 42 squadrons even by 2050 sounds overly optimistic.

 

[Danesh Irani]

Get private industry involved in manufacturing.both LCA mk1 & mk 2 give them an 50:50 order same rates and see how we start churning out 5/6 aircrafts a month in 30 month time this will give the complacent HAL a wake up call and position our private sector in the forefront of aviation technology

 

[Shiva]

"Most likely won't reach 42 squadrons by 2027", eh? I put it to you that this is an utter impossibility.

The IAF presently stands at 30 squadrons, which includes the 2 MiG-21 squadrons. These 2 squadrons will retire next year, which means the IAF would be down to 28 squadrons. Even of HAL can work some miracles, they would be able to deliver roughly 2 Tejas squadrons or so by 2027-28. That means the IAF would remain at 30 squadrons.

Oh, but it doesn't end there. The Jaguars are set to retire from 2027-28, so if we see one Jaguar squadron retiring in 2027-28, that brings us down to 29 squadrons. That's 12 to 13 squadrons, or roughly 230 to 250 jets below the target.

Mark my words: The IAF's strength is going to go down before it goes up. Also, without MRFA, we aren't going to reach 42 squadrons atleast for the next 18-20 years. Bring in MRFA, and that we might be able to reach 42 squadrons around 2040.

42 number is not a miracle number, if few below then India becomes vulnerable or so.
it is just a projected expectation to have offensive capabilities.
Existing strength was sufficient for defensive capabilities.
Acquring offensive capabilities with imported items is never a viable option. So, going for MRFA or any other program, where there is strict dependency on other country, why not it is so friendly country, is not a good approach.
Yes we can import minimum items to acquire minimum deterrance temporarily.
Govt is slowly giving more orders to indigenous items and enhancing its production capacity by increasing number of plants and number of private players.
Even though target is not acheived, it does not mean, we have to feel like we are dieing.

Moreover, retiring items, in general , are prolonged their life with repairs by 5 to 10 years.
Also we have trainer products, which can be used as figher product on emergency.
So, no need to worry too much on this number gambling

 

[shubham saini]

Cancel mrfa it's to costly instead we should build 350+ Tejas mk2 and more amca

 

[Anant]

Order 300 Tejas mk2 and cancel phoren maal MRFA...

The delivery timeline will be same anyway

Plus price of 300 mk2<<<<104 rafale

300mk2 ORDER WILL BE DEVIDED 50:50 BETWEEN HAL AND PRIVATE COMAPNY

Again started that nonsense of 104 Rafales costing more than 300 Tejas Mk 2.

Here's simple math: The Tejas Mk 1A order is set to cost around 80 million USD per jet for the 97 aircraft order. The Tejas Mk 2 will cost more by dint of being a larger and more complex fighter. Let's assume (very conservatively) that the Tejas Mk 2 costs 90 million USD each. 300 of those would cost 27 billion USD, which is more than what 114 Rafales would cost, let alone 104.

Now that the math is done, let's move to Operations. Do you have any idea of the level of scaling up that hundreds of suppliers would have to go through to be able to allow HAL to manufacture 300 Tejas Mk 2 fighters in anything remotely resembling a decent timeline? You evidently don't, since you keep repeating this.

Even if you could manufacture those many jets, do you have the infrastructure, training facilities, etc. to support those? Turns out we don't, which means massive investments into that as well.

 

[Anil Kumar]

Again started that nonsense of 104 Rafales costing more than 300 Tejas Mk 2.

Here's simple math: The Tejas Mk 1A order is set to cost around 80 million USD per jet for the 97 aircraft order. The Tejas Mk 2 will cost more by dint of being a larger and more complex fighter. Let's assume (very conservatively) that the Tejas Mk 2 costs 90 million USD each. 300 of those would cost 27 billion USD, which is more than what 114 Rafales would cost, let alone 104.

Now that the math is done, let's move to Operations. Do you have any idea of the level of scaling up that hundreds of suppliers would have to go through to be able to allow HAL to manufacture 300 Tejas Mk 2 fighters in anything remotely resembling a decent timeline? You evidently don't, since you keep repeating this.

Even if you could manufacture those many jets, do you have the infrastructure, training facilities, etc. to support those? Turns out we don't, which means massive investments into that as well.

Sir how you can estimate Tejas mk1a cost 80 million usd if deal have not done yet. And 114 rafel cost for India not finalized yet for 25 billion could be more according to Indian requirement specially TOT. If hal can manufacture 220 LCA mk1 then they can manufacture 300 also and manufacturing 300 jets can take more time with some delay also so what. S400, nuclear submarines, frigates, ins vikramaditya etc also got delayed while importing. If India will select 114 Rafael then these 114 aircraft will also be manufacture in India, will again require more suppliers, infrastructure, training, investment etc because these 114 aircraft are not directly comming from France. Another option could be to import 36 to 54 rafel directly from France. Total rafel will be 36 + 26 + 36 to 54 or some more

 

[Frank]

Again started that nonsense of 104 Rafales costing more than 300 Tejas Mk 2.

Here's simple math: The Tejas Mk 1A order is set to cost around 80 million USD per jet for the 97 aircraft order. The Tejas Mk 2 will cost more by dint of being a larger and more complex fighter. Let's assume (very conservatively) that the Tejas Mk 2 costs 90 million USD each. 300 of those would cost 27 billion USD, which is more than what 114 Rafales would cost, let alone 104.

Now that the math is done, let's move to Operations. Do you have any idea of the level of scaling up that hundreds of suppliers would have to go through to be able to allow HAL to manufacture 300 Tejas Mk 2 fighters in anything remotely resembling a decent timeline? You evidently don't, since you keep repeating this.

Even if you could manufacture those many jets, do you have the infrastructure, training facilities, etc. to support those? Turns out we don't, which means massive investments into that as well.

114 Rafale will cost around 30-35 billion

In 2016 F3 rafale costed us 8 billion euro ~10 billon dollar.

Almost 270 million dollar per F3 Rafale.

Now it's 2024, 8 years of inflation.

And Rafale has new F4 version.

Let's assume the price of F4 Rafale after improvements and inflation 290-320 million per jet

Thus price of 114 jets will cost at least 30-35 billion dollar.
May reach 40 billion due to cost escalation bcz of local production like Su40MKI

Also 300 Tejas mk2 production order would be divided between Hal and private company (Tata or Adani or Mahindra) 50:50. Delivery will complete within 8/9 years if both (Hal n private company) produce 20 jet per year which is very much possible.

 

[PKS]

IT defeats logic to assert that 'ordering additional Tejas' in any way results in the automatic increase in the numbers operational with the IAF! Until delivered perhaps in 10 years or more these 'additional jets' are imaginary!