IAF's Dual-Pronged Strategy Eyes Locally Produced Su-57E Stealth Jets and Rafales to Counter China's Growing J-20 Fleet

IAF's Dual-Pronged Strategy Eyes Locally Produced Su-57E Stealth Jets and Rafales to Counter China's Growing J-20 Fleet


In a major strategic initiative to modernise its fleet and address a significant shortfall in its fighter squadrons, the Indian Air Force (IAF) is seeking a comprehensive, two-part acquisition plan.

This strategy involves acquiring Russia's fifth-generation Su-57E stealth fighters and simultaneously pursuing a large deal for France's 4.5-generation Rafale jets.

The plan aims to create a powerful blend of stealth, versatility, and proven combat capability to maintain a strategic edge against the rapidly growing air power of China and Pakistan.

The approach for the Su-57E includes an initial direct purchase of two squadrons, comprising 36 to 40 aircraft, to meet immediate operational needs.

This will be followed by a more ambitious plan to manufacture an additional three to five squadrons (54 to 90 aircraft) in India.

This large-scale domestic production would be undertaken at the Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) facility in Nashik, which would also integrate indigenous systems into the advanced fighter.

This effort runs parallel to the IAF's separate proposal to procure 114 multi-role Rafale aircraft, underlining a clear strategy to diversify its high-performance assets.

This accelerated push for fifth-generation technology is largely driven by pressing geopolitical developments in the region.

The primary concern is China's People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF), which has already inducted over 200 of its J-20 "Mighty Dragon" stealth fighters, with many deployed at airbases near the Indian border.

Furthermore, Pakistan is finalising plans to acquire up to 40 Chinese FC-31/J-35 stealth jets by 2026.

The Su-57E is seen as a direct counter, offering exceptional supermaneuverability, a large weapons payload capacity of up to 10 tons, and compatibility with hypersonic missiles, making it highly suitable for deep-strike missions and high-altitude combat over the Himalayas.

A central element of this potential deal is its alignment with India’s "Aatmanirbhar Bharat" policy in defence manufacturing.

The HAL Nashik plant is well-positioned for this complex task, having successfully produced over 220 Su-30 MKI fighters and more than 920 of their AL-31FP engines under license since 2004.

According to Russian officials, the existing infrastructure at Nashik would require only 20-30% new tooling to adapt the assembly lines for the Su-57E. This would significantly reduce the cost and time required compared to establishing a completely new production ecosystem for a different aircraft.

Russia's proposal reportedly includes a full Transfer of Technology (ToT) and crucial source code access, a key differentiator from many Western defence deals.

This would grant the IAF and Indian defence scientists the freedom to upgrade the Su-57E with indigenous avionics, sensors, and weapon systems over its service life.

This locally produced, customised variant would serve as a critical bridge, filling the IAF's fifth-generation capability gap until its indigenous Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) is ready for induction in the mid-2030s.

The project is also expected to create thousands of skilled jobs and enhance India's aerospace export potential.

Operationally, the Su-57E offers seamless integration with the IAF's existing backbone of nearly 270 Su-30 MKI jets, with which it shares an estimated 70-80% of its technological systems.

This high degree of commonality would streamline logistics, spare parts management, maintenance protocols, and pilot training.

Moreover, Russia has offered its S-70 Okhotnik-B heavy combat drone to pair with the Su-57E, enabling advanced Manned-Unmanned Teaming (MUM-T) capabilities.

This would allow a single pilot to control a swarm of drones, revolutionising the IAF's network-centric warfare capabilities and acting as a significant force multiplier in future conflicts.
 
That's an interesting analysis. Here is the text converted into multiple paragraphs, without changing the wording:

Good, late but finally some sensible decision. I have always said the Su-57 will find a place as a 5th Gen Fighter and the magic 3-digit 100 is likely to be inducted. My words are becoming true.

It's a bad time for US fan boys; it's all over after Rafale G2G or under MRFA. And now the Su-57 under the 5th Gen platform is almost done. The F-16/F-21, F-18, F-15Ex, and the so-called stealth Fighter F-35 will not find a place in either of the Tenders. The US is going to return with an empty hand in the Fighter Jet Aero-sector, including the Engine deal.

Now, for the Super Sukhoi as well as AMCA, some technologies will be incorporated from the Su-57, while the Su-57 will have some indigenously developed tech sensors too. In fact, it is a good opportunity to have the AL-51 derivative Engine for the Super Sukhoi with local manufacturing. Su-57 with Local Final Assembly: at least 80% of the ecosystem should be pushed.

The Super Sukhoi is likely to get more advanced weapons like the R-37M and K-77mM BVR Missiles. The most important feature of the Su-57 is that it is coming with MUM-T capabilities (S-70/Okhotnik Drone), which the F-35 lacks, although Bharat is developing indigenously, but can it be incorporated with the Super Sukhoi?

That will have commonality in Engine sensors, tech features, and a Hypersonic weapons package for the Super Sukhoi and Su-57. That means under Make in India, the IAF would get 250 plus Fighter Jets. The Su-57 will be the most customized and specific Fighter Jet with sharing of source code. I'd love to see the Python-5 on it apart from Indigenous weapons.
 
I would rather expect an engine from Russia, like Product 177S, with full TOT, and fund TBDF or create a naval version of AMCA to speed up the project rather than going for imported stuff.
 
ToT for only 3 squadrons for indigenous production? Will be a joke in terms of cost, unless they produce more! In terms of timelines it would take more than 10 years for ToT and local mfg if the Su-30 MKI experience is anything to go by. It also speaks for the confidence in terms of AMCA timelines!
 
I think 3 Sqn SU-57 would be optimal as of now: 2 Sqn for China + 1 Sqn for Pakistan.

While planning for the future, we have to remember that a '2 Front War' is the worst-case scenario. Considering Russia and the USA won't let China get any more dominant than they already are, it has a very minuscule chance of occurring in real life (irl).

So in wartime, we will have 3 Sqn/54-60 Su-57 against a single opponent at any given time, which I think will be sufficient considering we will also have a very potent AD (Air Defence) Shield like Kushinagara along with a decent Rocket Force.

114 Rafales + 130 Su-57 will run limited resources dry for our indigenous developments like Tejas Mk2, Ghatak, and AMCA.
 
These all purchases are okay... The IAF needs it... fine... but our own indigenous programmes should not become a victim of budget shortage... we have to run our own programmes side by side... Otherwise it will be the biggest blunder if we compromise on that... The IAF needs indigenous platforms as much as they need Rafael, SU-57... This is the matter of the future... so no compromisation on indigenous programmes... If budget is the problem, then reduce the nos. of 114 Rafaels... make it 60-65 Rafaels and the rest SU-57s... fast-track indigenous programmes... specially jet engines...
 
That would be around 130 in total. I don't see why this jet won't be capable as a 4.5 one with semi-stealth capability. It will be a force multiplier along with Rafale. If the Govt. is willing to buy it, then the only problem will be CAATSA.
 
Ah, another article chest-thumping over 'India-Russia alliance' and 'Su-57 5th gen for IAF.' The Sukhoi Su-57 'Felon' is not considered a true fifth-generation fighter for good reasons, with its creaky welded metal wings, crooked bolts, and un-serrated engine nozzles being on full display at the earlier Zhuhai Air Show, attracting jokes about Russia's 'Premier Next Generation Fighter.' The Su-57 has an estimated RCS of about ~0.1-0.5m2 frontal, with that number going much higher for practically any other angle, is nowhere near the F-35's estimated ~0.005-0.001 RCS frontal, being designed for full-spectrum stealth. It has an EW suite never used in battle once, and which exists in the hearts and minds of Russian propagandists. The L402 'Himalayas' suite, while on paper a powerful and capable EW, is just that- on paper. What's being offered to India is not true fifth-generation capabilities- it's yet another instance of Russian opportunism. After all, no other nation is offering 5th gen fighters for sale to India except them (reports saying the US offered the F-35 to India are fabricated.) While China steams on ahead mass producing J-20s at a rate of around 50-100 per year, India trudges along, struggling to reliably produce basic, incapable 4.5 gens like the Tejas mk1a at 16-24 per year. Truly hope the MoD pulls up their socks and begins actual work!
 
Great move by IAF and GOI to induct around 140 Su57..this combined with 150 Rafales would give IAF complete air dominance over our adversaries for next 10-15 years during which our domestic development and production would mature for AMCA platform and advanced stealth drones.
Even if SU57 is not a true Stealth, it's range, payload , speed and standoff hypersonic weapons make it very potent platform. Besides Indian engineers can equip the aircraft with composite metal airframes and avionics like GAN AESA being developed for Super Sukhoi and AMCA which will add to its stealth profile and capability.Its a deal India should close without second thoughts
 

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