Reportedly, a high-level committee within India's Ministry of Defence has approved a recommendation from the Indian Air Force (IAF) to potentially broaden the scope of the Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) tender to include 5th-generation fighter jets.
This significant development, confirmed by sources, opens the door for the first time to potential offers of 5th-generation platforms within the MRFA framework, which calls for 110 aircraft with provisions for technology transfer (ToT) and domestic manufacturing.
The key uncertainty remains which 5th gen fighter will agree on ToT, and a Final Assembly Line (FAL) in the Country.
The MRFA tender, estimated to be worth over US$20 billion, is intended to address the IAF's declining number of operational squadrons. The IAF currently operates 31 squadrons, significantly below its sanctioned strength of 42. The new aircraft are meant to replace aging fleets of MiG-21s, Jaguars, and Mirage 2000s.
While the tender initially focused on 4.5-generation fighters, such as the Dassault Rafale, Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornet, and Eurofighter Typhoon, the expansion to include 5th-generation options is a response to evolving regional security challenges, particularly the growing presence of China's J-20 stealth fighter and the development of 6th-generation prototypes.
Currently, Russia appears to be the only nation explicitly offering a 5th-generation aircraft with a ToT component. The Sukhoi Su-57E, an export version of Russia's stealth fighter, has been proposed with the possibility of local production at Hindustan Aeronautics Limited's (HAL) facility in Nashik.
The Su-57, which entered service with the Russian Aerospace Forces in 2020, features advanced avionics, the ability to cruise at supersonic speeds (supercruise), and features designed to reduce its radar signature.
Russia has ordered 76 Su-57s for its own forces, with deliveries expected by 2028. The proposal for the Su-57E leverages India's existing infrastructure for the Su-30 MKI, potentially streamlining logistics and maintenance.
The Russian offer, expected to be structured as a government-to-government (G2G) agreement, could see the Nashik facility, already a center for MiG and Su-30 maintenance, become a production hub. This aligns with India's long-standing defense relationship with Russia.
However, past issues with spare parts delays and the impact of sanctions following the conflict in Ukraine raise potential concerns.
A ToT agreement for the Su-57E could also potentially benefit India's own Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) program, which is projected to be ready by 2035, by providing valuable knowledge in areas like stealth technology and sensor fusion. However the amount of sharing of proprietary technology by Russia remains uncertain.
In contrast, Lockheed Martin has expressed strong interest in offering its F-35A Lightning II, the most widely deployed 5th-generation fighter globally. However, sources indicate that the U.S. proposal is for a direct, off-the-shelf purchase through a G2G agreement, circumventing the local assembly requirement of the MRFA.
The F-35A, showcased at Aero India 2023, boasts unparalleled stealth capabilities, advanced sensor fusion, and network-centric warfare capabilities. With over 1,100 units delivered worldwide, the F-35's conventional takeoff and landing (CTOL) variant is well-suited for IAF bases. The F-35C, a carrier-capable variant, might also be of interest to the Indian Navy.
The United States' strict policies on technology sharing present a significant obstacle. Unlike Lockheed Martin's previous offer of the F-21 (an upgraded F-16 variant) with full production in India through a partnership with Tata, the F-35A's most sensitive technologies, such as its AN/APG-81 AESA radar and stealth coatings, are highly unlikely to be included in any ToT agreement or local assembly line.
Regarding South Korea's KF-21 Boramae, sources have clarified that the current production model is a 4.5-generation fighter. A 5th-generation variant is not anticipated before 2030. The KF-21, which first flew in 2022 and is scheduled for induction in 2026, incorporates advanced avionics.
An insider indicated that it is up to the vendors to decide whether to respond to the tender, suggesting that Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) could potentially propose a future 5th-generation KF-21EX with ToT. But it's development timeline, and dependence on U.S supplied components make it improbable for the current needs of MRFA.
The decision to consider 5th-generation jets in the MRFA tender, approved by a Defence Ministry committee, signifies a two-pronged approach: to meet the IAF's urgent requirement for approximately 450 aircraft by 2040 and to acquire cutting-edge technology.
Given the delays in the Tejas Mk1A program and the long-term development timeline of the AMCA, the addition of a 5th-generation fighter could serve as a deterrent to China's People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) and Pakistan's potential acquisition of J-35 fighters.
Local manufacturing, through a potential agreement for the Su-57E or another contender, holds the promise of boosting India's domestic defense industry.
