J-15 Crash Underscores China's Struggle to Develop Reliable Carrier-Based Aircraft Capabilities, Exposes Critical Flaws and Troubling Safety Record

A recent crash of a Chinese Navy J-15 "Flying Shark" carrier-based fighter jet has reignited concerns about the aircraft's reliability and the overall state of China's carrier aviation program.

The incident, which occurred on March 15, 2025, near the town of Jiali in northwestern Hainan Island, highlights persistent technical challenges and a concerning safety record that plague the J-15.

The aircraft, which was reportedly preparing for landing, suffered a catastrophic malfunction, leading to a near-vertical stall and subsequent crash. Eyewitnesses reported seeing the left engine's nozzle contract, apparently cutting off power. The jet plummeted to the ground, narrowly missing residential buildings.

While the pilot successfully ejected and survived, and no civilians were injured, the incident was a close call. The crash was captured on video by numerous onlookers, and the footage quickly spread online despite efforts by Chinese authorities to censor it.

Military analysts attribute the crash to a failure of the J-15's Russian-made AL-31F engine. These engines have been a long-standing source of concern, with a notably short service life of less than 1,000 hours.

The engines require major overhauls every 300 hours, and are reportedly prone to heat-induced wear and frequent nozzle malfunctions. The incident also pointed to failures in the main hydraulic system and flight control, leaving the pilot with very little time to react.

This latest crash is not an isolated incident. The J-15 has a history marred by several fatal accidents:

• April 6, 2016: Pilot CH Shen Jen was seriously injured due to a flight control system malfunction shortly after takeoff.
• April 27, 2016: Major Jung Chao died when his J-15 lost control during landing; a faulty ejection system contributed to his fatal injuries.
• August 16, 2017: Vice Squadron Leader Yen Wei's aircraft experienced an engine fire after a bird strike. The pilot survived, but the incident highlighted the aircraft's vulnerability.
• April 2024: A young pilot, Pang J, died during the crash in South China sea under unclear circumstances.

Experts point to the J-15's rushed development as a primary factor contributing to its problems. The aircraft is based on a Ukrainian T-10K-3 prototype, and engineers at Shenyang Aircraft Corporation reportedly accelerated the development process, adapting the flight control system from the land-based J-11. This adaptation proved to be problematic, given the J-15's more complex three-wing configuration.

Beyond the engine and flight control issues, the J-15 also suffers from performance limitations. Its large size and weight (22.5 to 24.5 tons during landing) hinder maneuverability and place excessive stress on the engines. Its radar system is considered outdated, with a power output of only 1 kW.

In contrast, the U.S. Navy's F/A-18E Super Hornet utilizes an AESA radar with a significantly higher peak power of 18 kW, providing a substantial advantage in situational awareness.

Maintenance and readiness rates further compound the J-15's problems. Reports suggest that older J-15 units experience a critical malfunction approximately every 100 flight hours. These malfunctions are frequently related to flight control failures (23.7%), engine problems (31%), avionics malfunctions (19.5%), and other miscellaneous issues (25.6%).

The aircraft's operational availability is estimated to be only 42.8%, meaning that less than half of the J-15 fleet is ready for deployment at any given time. This compares unfavorably to other carrier-based aircraft, such as the F-35C (estimated 85% availability), the French Rafale M (estimated 75%), and India's MiG-29K (estimated 60%).

The ongoing challenges with the J-15, coupled with the delayed introduction of its intended successor, the J-35, present a significant limitation for the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN).

While China's carrier fleet is often portrayed as a symbol of growing military power, the J-15's reliability issues and limited sortie generation capacity raise questions about its ability to sustain operations in a prolonged conflict.

This incident serves as a stark reminder of the complexities and difficulties inherent in developing and maintaining a capable carrier-based air wing.

 

[sanket]

Some comedian do Bla Bla over TEDBF Timeline, Developing Fighter Jet is very complex & developing Naval Variant is more complex.

 

[VKP]

At least they are trying, let us appreciate that. Then there are Pakistanis who want a perfect system.

 

[Praveen]

F-35 availability is only 60 percent its Pentagon report.

 

[Bhishma]

Picture doesn't look like engine failure. My guess is their FBW went mental and did a 90-degree nose dive. At least we know their ejection system works fine. God bless that pilot.

 

[Radha Ramanan]

China paid and illegally got the Su-27 ship-borne fighter developed by Russia. The IPR rests with Russia. Russia was pissed off with Ukraine for a long time for selling all its defense tech to the West and China, in spite of warning Ukraine not to.

China benefitted immensely in defense tech from Ukraine... rocket engines, semi-cryo engines, cruise missile complete tech, aero engine tech. The huge Y-20 transport aircraft was co-designed with Ilyushin. The modern CCM missile, PL-10, is actually a fully developed Ukrainian IIR CCM. China paid money, got it, and avoided time delays.

There are many more, including the ship-borne Su-27. The flight control system was not fully developed, and after a lot of crashes that took the lives of Russian test pilots, and after finding out that the fighter was too big to launch without a catapult, Russia ditched the naval variant.

This was bought by China, and it also lost pilots. China actually ditched it, but there is hope that the EMALS on the latest carrier can launch it.

I've broken it into four paragraphs. The first sets the stage with the initial conflict between Russia and Ukraine/China. The second focuses on the broader technological benefits China gained from Ukraine. The third isolates the story of the Su-27 specifically, up to Russia abandoning it. The final paragraph focuses on China's experience with the Su-27 and its potential future.

 

[Prince singh Rawat]

F-35 availability is only 60 percent its Pentagon report.

That's actually the case with all major air forces. Most major air forces' readiness is around 60-75%.

 

[Sandeep]

This crash isn’t the first time and it won’t be the last time.

Chinese technology, equipment and weapons etc suffer from poor reliability, deficiencies, errors and it doesn’t perform like they claim it can do.

 

[Kira]

I think the J-15, derived from the baseline Su-33 design, seems a little too big and difficult to fly as a carrier aircraft, which was why the IN initially rejected it in favor of the smaller MiG-29K when it was selected as IN Vikramaditya's air wing.

 

[Subho S]

When you resort to "copy-paste," the deficiencies in the original designs, unfortunately, get copied over!!! We in India have taken our own sweet time, but our indigenous platforms will be far more reliable than the Chinese ones, and the world is beginning to take notice!

 

[RG]

At least they are making an effort to develop the project and be self-sufficient. That is why I respect them.