The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) is facing a critical juncture in its modernization efforts, balancing the need to replace its aging aircraft with the complexities of international procurement.
While exploring options to acquire advanced Chinese fighters, including the J-10CE and the fifth-generation J-35A, the PAF is reportedly prioritizing the acquisition of additional F-16 Block 52 aircraft from the United States.
This renewed interest is, in part, fueled by reports of potential sales of F-35A stealth fighters to India. Pakistan is understood to have requested between 18 and 36 additional F-16s in either the Block 50 or Block V configuration.
The F-16 Fighting Falcon has been the cornerstone of the PAF's fighter fleet since the delivery of the first Block 15 aircraft in 1982 under the Peace Gate program. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), the PAF currently operates approximately 76 F-16s.
This fleet comprises 45 Block 15/20 aircraft upgraded under the Mid-Life Update (MLU) program, 13 ex-Jordanian Block 15 Air Defense Fighters (ADF), and 18 newer Block 50/52 aircraft delivered between 2010 and 2012 as part of the Peace Drive initiative.
The Block 50/52 models, equipped with advanced AN/APG-68(V)9 radars and AIM-120C-5 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAMs), represent the most capable platforms in the PAF inventory, with a projected service life extending beyond 2030 with appropriate maintenance.
A significant portion of the PAF's F-16 fleet, the MLU Block 15/20 aircraft, are now over four decades old. These aircraft, originally received in the 1980s, were upgraded in the 2000s with U.S. assistance and work performed in Turkish facilities. The upgrade brought them to a standard comparable to the Block 50, incorporating modern avionics and beyond-visual-range (BVR) combat capabilities.
However, these older airframes are experiencing structural fatigue. Additionally, obtaining spare parts has been a persistent challenge, partly due to past U.S. sanctions. The majority of these aircraft are expected to be retired by 2030-35, leaving the PAF with only the 18 Block 50/52 jets – a significantly reduced force to address the regional security environment.
A further complication is the limited supply of Beyond Visual Range Air-to-Air Missiles (BVRAAMs) for the MLU fleet. While the Block 50/52 jets can utilize the AIM-120C-5, which has a range of over 100 kilometers, the older MLU aircraft rely on a dwindling inventory of these U.S.-supplied missiles. Their use is also subject to end-user agreements and geopolitical considerations.
To mitigate this, the PAF is collaborating with Turkey, a fellow NATO member with a growing defense sector, to integrate Turkish-made BVRAAMs onto its MLU Block 15/20 F-16s.
The Turkish Gökdoğan (Peregrine) missile, developed by TÜBİTAK SAGE, is a likely choice. It is a BVR missile with an estimated range of 65-100 kilometers, featuring an active radar seeker. This would offer a more affordable and readily available alternative to the AMRAAM, reducing reliance on U.S. supplies.
This partnership reflects Pakistan's close defense relationship with Turkey and its broader strategy of diversifying its sources for military equipment, a lesson learned from sanctions imposed in the 1990s.
Nevertheless, integrating new missiles onto 40-year-old aircraft is a temporary solution, as the airframes themselves are nearing the end of their operational lifespan.
This context underscores Pakistan's strong interest in acquiring an additional 18-36 F-16 Block 50 or Block V aircraft. The Block 50/52 configuration is a well-established platform with a proven combat history and would seamlessly integrate into the PAF's existing infrastructure, including maintenance facilities at Kamra, trained personnel, and an established logistics network.
The Block V, representing an upgraded version of the Block 70/72, incorporates an AN/APG-83 AESA (Active Electronically Scanned Array) radar and improved survivability features. This would provide a significant capability enhancement, approaching the performance of fifth-generation fighters without the political complexities associated with acquiring aircraft like the F-35.
The PAF's drive to obtain more F-16s has become more pressing due to reports of a potential U.S. agreement to sell F-35A fighters to India. While no such sale has been officially announced as of February 2025, India's recent acquisition of 36 Rafale fighters and its ongoing development of the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) have raised concerns in Islamabad.
Operating a small number of Block 50/52 F-16s alone after the retirement of the MLU fleet would significantly challenge the PAF's ability to counter India's expanding air power. Increasing the number of these advanced F-16s to between 36 and 54 would maintain the F-16 as a viable deterrent until at least 2035, providing time for the development of longer-term modernization strategies.
Concurrently, Pakistan has been incorporating Chinese-made aircraft into its air force. The J-10CE, a 4.5-generation fighter, was inducted in 2022. It features an AESA radar and PL-15 missiles (with an export-limited range of 200 km). Twenty J-10CEs have been delivered, with plans for up to 60 in total.
Discussions regarding the J-35A, a fifth-generation stealth fighter designed for carrier operations, emerged in January 2024, with Air Chief Marshal Zaheer Ahmed Baber Sidhu indicating its potential acquisition in the "near future."
The J-35A, believed to be a further development of the FC-31, offers stealth capabilities, advanced sensors, and a modern weapons package, potentially surpassing the capabilities of the F-16 Block 50/52.
However, the J-35A is still under development, with its operational readiness for the Chinese navy not expected until after 2030. Its export to Pakistan would likely occur even later.
Furthermore, integrating a completely new aircraft type, especially one significantly different from the PAF's predominantly Western-oriented F-16 infrastructure, would present substantial logistical challenges.
The J-10CE, while capable, does not possess the established maturity and worldwide support network of the F-16. Therefore, despite the advancements in Chinese military aviation, the PAF appears to view these platforms as a long-term complement to its F-16 fleet, rather than an immediate replacement for its core fighting force.
