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A potential offer from the United States to supply India with the advanced F-35A Lightning II stealth fighter jet, first announced by U.S. President Donald Trump in February, appears to be facing significant challenges.
Nearly three months after the high-profile suggestion aimed at strengthening U.S.-India defence ties, no formal proposal has been submitted. Meanwhile, indications suggest the Indian Air Force (IAF) is prioritising the acquisition of additional French-made Dassault Rafale jets and focusing on its indigenous Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) program.
During a meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Washington D.C. on February 13, President Trump indicated a substantial increase in military sales to India, specifically mentioning "paving the way" for the F-35A.
This fifth-generation fighter, known for its stealth capabilities, advanced sensors, and multi-role functions, is operated by key U.S. allies. Its acquisition could significantly enhance the IAF's capabilities, especially considering regional air power developments.
However, the discussion remains informal. Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri previously stated that no official procurement process is underway, which would typically require a formal Request for Proposals (RFP) and detailed evaluations.
The lack of a concrete government-to-government framework or timeline raises questions about the offer's feasibility.
Further complicating matters are the F-35A's significant costs – estimated at around $82.5 million per aircraft plus substantial operational expenses – and the stringent end-user conditions typically imposed by the U.S. on its advanced defence technology.
While the F-35 discussion remains uncertain, the IAF seems to be moving forward with plans to expand its fleet of Rafale fighters. India currently operates 36 Rafales, acquired in a deal finalised in 2016, and the air force has reportedly expressed satisfaction with their performance.
Recent developments suggest the IAF is keen on acquiring 114 additional Rafales under the ongoing Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) procurement program.
The preference for the Rafale stems from several factors. It is a proven 4.5-generation aircraft already integrated into the IAF, featuring India-specific enhancements and compatibility with existing infrastructure, unlike the F-35 which would require major logistical and training adjustments.
Furthermore, the Rafale is seen as having lower lifecycle costs compared to the F-35. France's established track record of technology transfer and willingness to support local manufacturing aligns well with India's 'Make in India' defence production goals, a contrast to potential U.S. restrictions on sensitive F-35 technology.
The IAF also faces pressure to address its declining number of fighter squadrons, currently standing at 31 against a required strength of 42, as older aircraft like the MiG-21 are phased out. Procuring additional Rafales offers a faster way to bolster squadron strength compared to the lengthy process and integration hurdles anticipated with the F-35.
Beyond immediate needs, the focus on Rafale aligns with India's long-term strategic goal of self-reliance in defence, embodied by the indigenous AMCA program. This fifth-generation stealth fighter project, managed by the Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA) and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), aims for a first flight around 2028 and induction by 2034.
Having received significant government backing, including ₹15,000 crore in initial funding, the AMCA represents India's ambition to develop its own advanced combat aircraft tailored to its specific requirements.
Defence analysts and officials suggest that pursuing the F-35 could potentially divert critical resources and focus away from the strategically vital AMCA project. A senior official previously noted that opting for a U.S. fighter could represent a setback for India's indigenous defence efforts.
In this context, acquiring more Rafales is viewed as a practical interim measure to maintain capability while the AMCA program matures, fitting better with the national vision of 'Atmanirbhar Bharat' (Self-Reliant India).
Ultimately, several significant hurdles hinder a potential F-35 deal for India. These include the aircraft's high acquisition and operational costs, major challenges in integrating it with India's existing Russian-origin platforms (like the S-400 defence system and Su-30MKI fighters), potential geopolitical friction with traditional defence partners like Russia, strict U.S. end-user restrictions, and the overriding national priority placed on indigenous programs like the AMCA and the Tejas Mk2 fighter.
Given these factors, the IAF's apparent lean towards procuring more Rafales under the MRFA initiative – potentially becoming the last major foreign fighter acquisition – seems increasingly likely. This approach allows India to meet its medium-term defence needs while concentrating resources on the indigenous AMCA to anchor its future air combat capabilities, reducing long-term dependence on foreign suppliers.
The F-35A, despite its technological prowess, appears misaligned with India's current strategic trajectory and commitment to defence indigenisation.
