Why India Ditched FGFA 5th-Gen Fighter Jet Program with Russia? $25B Price, Limited Control and Stealth Shortcomings Were Major Factors

India's decision to withdraw from the Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) program with Russia was a significant turning point in its pursuit of advanced fighter capabilities.

While concerns about the aircraft's technical limitations, particularly its stealth capabilities, were widely reported, the program's exorbitant cost appears to have been the decisive factor in India's withdrawal.

Initially, the FGFA program, based on Russia's PAK-FA or Sukhoi T-50 platform, was envisioned as a collaborative venture with a 50:50 design and work-share agreement. This promised India a significant role in developing a cutting-edge stealth fighter.

However, as the program progressed, India's participation became increasingly limited, with Russia retaining control over most of the design and development work.

Reports indicated that India would have needed to invest an estimated $25 billion to see the FGFA project through to completion and induct 127 fighters into the Indian Air Force (IAF).

This staggering cost included expenses for development, production, and operational deployment. The high price tag raised serious concerns about the program's affordability, especially when weighed against other pressing needs in India's defence budget.

Furthermore, India would have had to compromise on its initial 50:50 design and work-share arrangement, effectively reducing its role to that of a buyer rather than a co-developer. This diminished role significantly undercut the strategic and technological benefits India had hoped to gain from the partnership.

While financial concerns were central, technical issues with the FGFA also influenced India's decision. The aircraft faced criticism for its:

• Pseudo-stealth capabilities: The PAK-FA platform lacked true stealth features comparable to other fifth-generation fighters like the F-35 or F-22.
• Underwhelming performance: Concerns arose regarding engine reliability, radar cross-section (RCS), and sensor fusion, raising doubts about the FGFA's overall combat effectiveness.

These shortcomings suggested that the FGFA might not fully meet the IAF's operational requirements, making the substantial financial investment even harder to justify.

India's withdrawal from the FGFA program marked a shift in its approach to acquiring fifth-generation fighter capabilities. Instead of relying on foreign platforms, India has prioritized developing its own Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA). This program aims to deliver a true fifth-generation fighter tailored to the IAF's specific needs and built with significant indigenous content.

By focusing on the AMCA, India aims to develop critical technologies domestically, reduce its reliance on foreign suppliers, and align its defence industry with the "Aatmanirbhar Bharat" (self-reliant India) vision. This strategic shift reflects India's growing ambition to become a major player in the global aerospace and defence market.

 

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[tron541]

Possibly the best decision considering the amount asked to be invested for a mediocre product.

We can only hope AMCA doesn't turn out like SU-57

 

[PKPRS]

If India spends $10 billion to buy only 36 jets, then how will it have money? There is huge propaganda spread by vested interests for the last few weeks maligning the Su-57. Of course, it's a mistake leaving the project; we would have been closer to making AMCA and a 6th-gen jet subsequently by now with that experience. Now, who knows how long we might have to wait for AMCA.

 

[Anant]

If India spends $10 billion to buy only 36 jets, then how will it have money? There is huge propaganda spread by vested interests for the last few weeks maligning the Su-57. Of course, it's a mistake leaving the project; we would have been closer to making AMCA and a 6th-gen jet subsequently by now with that experience. Now, who knows how long we might have to wait for AMCA.

No, we would be nowhere near a sixth generation jet. Where we would be is a few billion dollars short with what would be a half-baked jet program, with the jets nowhere to be seen.

Just look at how the Su-57 program has fared for a starting point of reference, and then consider the fact that Russia would have prioritised their own ambitions with the FGFA had we decided to throw a few billion dollars down the proverbial drain.

 

[abhinav srivastava]

It was a good decision to leave the project at that point. What we missed is expediting our own project. We moved so slowly either thinking that our adversaries will wait till we match them or thinking that eventually imports will happen.

 

[ryan]

Best decision for Bharat to leave the PAK-FA program. Ruskies thought they would milk India again, just like the Su-30 program, and get away with it. Not this time. The Su-57 is at best a 4.5+ or a 5- gen fighter in its current avatar and would take at least a decade to reach maturity given the severe strain on Russia's resources. Few of the good calls India has taken in its history.

 

[PKPRS]

No, we would be nowhere near a sixth generation jet. Where we would be is a few billion dollars short with what would be a half-baked jet program, with the jets nowhere to be seen.

Just look at how the Su-57 program has fared for a starting point of reference, and then consider the fact that Russia would have prioritised their own ambitions with the FGFA had we decided to throw a few billion dollars down the proverbial drain.

That’s not the point, experience designing such systems would have taught Indians (foreigners doesn’t understand), valuable experience in their own efforts to move closer to making 5th and 6th gen aircrafts, looking at the history of struggles from other Countries trying to make 5th gen jet including Aerospace, tech Behemoths.

 

[Anant]

That’s not the point, experience designing such systems would have taught Indians (foreigners doesn’t understand), valuable experience in their own efforts to move closer to making 5th and 6th gen aircrafts, looking at the history of struggles from other Countries trying to make 5th gen jet including Aerospace, tech Behemoths.

If you read some of the compromises that India was being asked to consider, you'll quickly see the Russians had started seeing the FGFA project more like a Su-57MKI project. Heck, they weren't even ready to co-develop a twin-engined trainer variant, when the IAF had explicitly requested this.

No, Russia's plan here was to essentially push a Su-57 variant similar to the Su-30MKI vis-a-vis the Su-30 and charge India the kind of amount a new project would entail while laughing on their way to the bank.

 

[PKPRS]

If you read some of the compromises that India was being asked to consider, you'll quickly see the Russians had started seeing the FGFA project more like a Su-57MKI project. Heck, they weren't even ready to co-develop a twin-engined trainer variant, when the IAF had explicitly requested this.

Could you enlighten us with the list of compromises that Indians were asked to do, you might probably have insider info from Russia.

 

[Anant]

Could you enlighten us with the list of compromises that Indians were asked to do, you might probably have insider info from Russia.

I don't have any insider information, but I do know how to look for publicly-available information.

The FGFA was to have a new software package based on the Su-57's software base. This new system was to be developed by India, with any Russian FGFAs refaining the same software base as the Su-57. Some time later, the Russians refused to consider a new software package on India's jets, and instead offered the Su-57's package for the FGFA while also refusing any direct access to the codebases, which would have essentially made upgrades and weapon integration that much harder.

Russia had initially agreed for a 50:50 workshare, but they then decided to force elements of the Su-57 onto the project, and eventually started claiming cost and time overruns. At thus point, they requested India agree to a 75:25 workshare, but promised manufacturing in India. This was back in early 2014. Next, Russia started claiming even more cost overruns and delays, and in mid-2015, asked that India agree to a 85:15 workshare (15% for India), and that the first batch of 36 jets (out of a planned 108-144 jets) would be built in Russia, with the latter being manufactured / assembled in India in a manner similar to the Su-30MKI.

Finally, by 2016, some new workshare was agreed upon (this was never released publicly, but it is believed that this ratio was 75:25), with another agreement that both nations would invest 1 billion USD each in 2016, and 500 million USD each ever year from 2017 to 2022, for a final developmental cost of around 8 billion USD. The aircraft costs themselves would be borne by each nation.

With things finally looking somewhat good, the Russians then turned around and demanded that India pay 7 billion USD in 2017, citing that development costs for the Su-57 had gone to about 10 billion USD, and saying they would withdraw from the program to focus on the Su-57 instead.

At this point, practically everyone in India who was not blindly following Russia saw this whole thing for the scam it was, and we pulled out of the project, losing about 300-500 million USD in the process.

So, no. Had we stayed on, we would have lost anything between 2-3 and 8-10 billion USD with practically nothing to show for it other than maybe a few promises from Russia to get a few downgraded Su-57Es while Russia slowly worked on their majority share of the project, which they never saw as anything more than a blatant cash grab.

 

[ASHOK CARROL]

In all defence deals, the Russians have repeatedly cheated India and never supplied any technology or expertise of worthwhile nature. Russian equipment is crude, unreliable, and failure rates are high. India must fund its AMCA and other fighter programmes with more technical and skilled manpower by making it a public-private programme under a professional, financially empowered CEO who has the power to hire foreign talent, acquire equipment and machines from anywhere, and is responsible and accountable for the outcomes with their team. The babus of MOD and FINANCE have to be delinked, as then the files only get bigger with no decisions and unprofessional delays, which retard and delay the projects. The smaller economies of Turkey and Korea are ahead in the race to field 5th-generation aircraft, and India, with its larger economic clout and manpower, can easily reduce the induction time to 2028-30 for Mk-1 and 32-34 for Mk-2 of AMCA by pouring in more resources, skilled manpower, and hiring foreign talent.

 

[PKPRS]

@Anant
I know you wanted IAF to spend $40Bln to buy 4th gen Rafale and go backwards in time and tech.

 

[Rame1]

If you read some of the compromises that India was being asked to consider, you'll quickly see the Russians had started seeing the FGFA project more like a Su-57MKI project. Heck, they weren't even ready to co-develop a twin-engined trainer variant, when the IAF had explicitly requested this.

I agree SU 57 has been overrated by Russians just to extra costs. SU 57 haven't lived up to it's reputation as has been seen in Ukrainian war. I still feel we have to somehow get hold of F 35 from Americans till we have something domestically because both China and Pakis are highly unpredictable and may try to flex their muscles.

 

[Mango_Indian]

We spent $8.8 billion to buy 36 Gen 4.5 non-stealth fighters (4 fighters to $1 billion). We did not get any tech transfer. If we spent $25 billion and got 127 Su-57 starting in 2020 and ending in 2027, which are ~5th Gen aircraft, without any tech transfer, we are still better off - just on a cost-per-plane basis (5 fighters to $1 billion).

 

[P.K Senapati]

Do not underestimate the Su-57. It is a 5th-generation stealth fighter that has been used in the Ukraine war. It has improvements from the initial design and inputs from the war. It will have a 2D thrust vector nozzle and an advanced helmet-mounted sighting system. It is equivalent to the F-22. India can purchase it or go for licensed make in India. We can also become a partner in the joint development of the single-engined version Su-75, equivalent to the F-35.

 

[Anant]

@Anant
I know you wanted IAF to spend $40Bln to buy 4th gen Rafale and go backwards in time and tech.

Show me one time when I have said the IAF should purchase the Rafale only. Go on, I'll wait.

I have always maintained what I maintain even now: The IAF needs jets, and it needs them fast. Right now, MRFA or some variant thereof is needed. The Rafale has a starting advantage within MRFA as we know it as it is already used, but the jet selected should be one the IAF wants.

The only two designs I am not in favour of are the Su-35 and the MiG-35, and I have reasons for both. If you want the Su-35, an easier alternative would be to just build Su-30MKIs in Super Sukhoi configuration with new engines. As for the MiG-35, it is essentially the MiG-29 with the serial number filed off and some new equipment added.

I am also not against the Su-57 as such, though I don't quite favour it either. However, that does not change the fact that the FGFA program was an attempt at daylight robbery, and we got out for cheap.

 

[Anant]

We spent $8.8 billion to buy 36 Gen 4.5 non-stealth fighters (4 fighters to $1 billion). We did not get any tech transfer. If we spent $25 billion and got 127 Su-57 starting in 2020 and ending in 2027, which are ~5th Gen aircraft, without any tech transfer, we are still better off - just on a cost-per-plane basis (5 fighters to $1 billion).

There was never any guarantee we were going to get those.

Back in 2017, Russia demanded India cover atleast 7 billion USD in developmental costs, plus any overruns. Now, each aircraft was estimated to cost 100 million USD in 2012 excluding munitions, so that is something like 3.1 billion rubles per jet back then. Adjust that to inflation, and this comes to about 7.4 billion rubles in 2025. Keeping the collapse in USD-RUB rates out of the contention, a simple linear correlation adjusted to USD inflation gives you a rough per unit cost of about 174 million USD per jet, without any munitions.

 

[Anant]

Do not underestimate the Su-57. It is a 5th-generation stealth fighter that has been used in the Ukraine war. It has improvements from the initial design and inputs from the war. It will have a 2D thrust vector nozzle and an advanced helmet-mounted sighting system. It is equivalent to the F-22. India can purchase it or go for licensed make in India. We can also become a partner in the joint development of the single-engined version Su-75, equivalent to the F-35.

Nonsense. The Su-57 is nowhere near the F-22, as we have already seen. If nothing else, the Su-57 only has a smaller RCS forward, while the other sides have a fairly large RCS. Oh, and the thrust vectoring engine thing is still some time away.

It is a potent fighter, yes, but to compare it to the F-22 would be to compare something like the MiG-21bis to a F-16C or something.

Oh, and the Su-75 doesn't exist. Russia has little interest in the project, and only wants some idiot to finance it for them. Short of them finding such a nation, the Su-75 will almost certainly never exist beyond a set of mockups, some design drawings, and peoples' hopes and dreams.

The Su-75 cannot hold a candle to the F-35. The former doesn't exist. The latter, while having its flaws, is the most widely produced and operated fifth-generation fighter today.

 

[Rational Guy]

If India spends $10 billion to buy only 36 jets, then how will it have money? There is huge propaganda spread by vested interests for the last few weeks maligning the Su-57. Of course, it's a mistake leaving the project; we would have been closer to making AMCA and a 6th-gen jet subsequently by now with that experience. Now, who knows how long we might have to wait for AMCA.

You want us to spend $25 billion for a fighter jet which had RCS higher than a clean F18? Even our Tejas is almost as stealthy as this "5th generation" fighter which btw also lacks sensor fusion capabilities.

 

[Rational Guy]

@Anant
I know you wanted IAF to spend $40Bln to buy 4th gen Rafale and go backwards in time and tech.

Best option buy 36 more Rafales for like $10-15 billion spend rest $25 billion for Kaveri/Tejas MK2/AMCA (and also make sure DRDO HAL implements critical reforms).

 

[PKPRS]

You want us to spend $25 billion for a fighter jet which had RCS higher than a clean F18? Even our Tejas is almost as stealthy as this "5th generation" fighter which btw also lacks sensor fusion capabilities.

Most information about SU-57 is classified, Nobody other than the Russians know the exact RCS or the price, so you wanted us to fight 5th gen jets from three Countries with Tejas Mk1A and wait for AMCA endlessly, realistically HAL/ADA doesn't have any clue as to how to make a 5th gen jet, let alone 100% 4.5 gen jet, we can only make AMCA through partnership, Rafale F3 can't fight 5th gen jets, Chinese are improving day by day, SU-57 is better than Chinese stealth jets or French 4.5 gen jet any day, besides France is asking $300Mln for basic Rafale F3, we wont be offered F35 with S400 and Voronezh OTH Stealth Aircraft detecting Radar, the closest to 5th gen jet in this competition is Typhoon in Tranche 5 form with LTE, nothing else is closer to 5th gen.

 

[Rational Guy]

We spent $8.8 billion to buy 36 Gen 4.5 non-stealth fighters (4 fighters to $1 billion). We did not get any tech transfer. If we spent $25 billion and got 127 Su-57 starting in 2020 and ending in 2027, which are ~5th Gen aircraft, without any tech transfer, we are still better off - just on a cost-per-plane basis (5 fighters to $1 billion).

Lol SU57 is not even 5th generation it's RCS (in Sukhois own admission) is literally as much as a clean F18 AND it lacks sensor fusion capabilities. It's glorified 4.75 Gen fighter.

 

[Rational Guy]

The Su-57 is nowhere near the F-22, as we have already seen. If nothing else, the Su-57 only has a smaller RCS forward, while the other sides have a fairly large RCS. Oh, and the thrust vectoring engine thing is still some time away.

It is a potent fighter, yes, but to compare it to the F-22 would be to compare something like the MiG-21bis to a F-16C or something.

Russia lovers forget America has over 150 F22 and over 1000 F35 while Russia barely has 50 SU57, and 1 F22 can most likely kill 5-6 SU57 due to superior stealth hence first see first shoot!

 

[PKPRS]

Best option buy 36 more Rafales for like $10-15 billion spend rest $25 billion for Kaveri/Tejas MK2/AMCA (and also make sure DRDO HAL implements critical reforms).

36 more Rafales will cost us $15Bln now after adjusting inflation, and we have to wait for 10years to recieve the first Rafale due to it's excessive backlog of 254 jets, Dassault makes 10-11/year, we won't be needing a foreign 4th gen jet in 2035, we will be having hundreds of Tejas MK2 at that time.

 

[Muthukumar Ponnambalam]

Not sure how Russia was not willing to share technologies and provide a joint platform for co-delopement, considering its state economy and the 25 billion India could've brought in. Definitely a loss for Russia and good that India didn't fall prey for any arm twisting / luring / enticing / tempting efforts.

 

[tipoo2]

And now we'll pay even more for waiting an extra decade with no such fighter on our hands. The Rafale costs way more than when we found it with an empty line, so will this, everything will cost more the more we wait.

 

[tipoo2]

It was a good decision to leave the project at that point. What we missed is expediting our own project. We moved so slowly either thinking that our adversaries will wait till we match them or thinking that eventually imports will happen.

Yes, withdrawing from FGFA should have been simultaneous with clearing the AMCA funding, not waiting another decade to do that. Imagine where we'd be if AMCA got going in earnest a decade ago and not basically yesterday.

 

[tipoo2]

We spent $8.8 billion to buy 36 Gen 4.5 non-stealth fighters (4 fighters to $1 billion). We did not get any tech transfer. If we spent $25 billion and got 127 Su-57 starting in 2020 and ending in 2027, which are ~5th Gen aircraft, without any tech transfer, we are still better off - just on a cost-per-plane basis (5 fighters to $1 billion).

To think we were going to get 144 FGFA units, and have done basically nothing but 36 Rafales since and 40 Tejas. The Su-57 may not be the best of 5th gen on stealth but I'd sure feel a lot better about the situation today behind 144 FGFA units than 0.

 

[Hey]

Most information about SU-57 is classified, Nobody other than the Russians know the exact RCS or the price, so you wanted us to fight 5th gen jets from three Countries with Tejas Mk1A and wait for AMCA endlessly, realistically HAL/ADA doesn't have any clue as to how to make a 5th gen jet, let alone 100% 4.5 gen jet, we can only make AMCA through partnership, Rafale F3 can't fight 5th gen jets, Chinese are improving day by day, SU-57 is better than Chinese stealth jets or French 4.5 gen jet any day, besides France is asking $300Mln for basic Rafale F3, we wont be offered F35 with S400 and Voronezh OTH Stealth Aircraft detecting Radar, the closest to 5th gen jet in this competition is Typhoon in Tranche 5 form with LTE, nothing else is closer to 5th gen.

I don't know how that 300 million figure is coming up? Bro, you have been in this domain since at least 2021, and you still don't know that there is a huge difference between per-unit cost vs. unit cost + armaments + logistics + spares + offset clauses + TOT + training + specific upgrades (software + hardware) + cost of other hardware (flight simulators) + reserve engines, etc.?

I hope you know the difference between CapEx vs. OpEx. Look at the deals of other platforms bought under CapEx for F-35 & F-15Ex, as no new customer bought Typhoon, and the Russian platform is 0.5 generation behind Western jets, and F-16 comes in a different category.

 

[PKPRS]

I don't know how that 300 million figure is coming up? Bro, you have been in this domain since at least 2021, and you still don't know that there is a huge difference between per-unit cost vs. unit cost + armaments + logistics + spares + offset clauses + TOT + training + specific upgrades (software + hardware) + cost of other hardware (flight simulators) + reserve engines, etc.?

I hope you know the difference between CapEx vs. OpEx. Look at the deals of other platforms bought under CapEx for F-35 & F-15Ex, as no new customer bought Typhoon, and the Russian platform is 0.5 generation behind Western jets, and F-16 comes in a different category.

There was as an article most recently that said that France was asking $254-$260Mln after adjusting for Inflation, for Rafale-M F3 with India (Airfore)specific enhancement's, When Navy Specific enhancements is added to this price it will reach closer to $300Mln approximately, what ever it may be whether you take the price for barebones or add for other equipment's, don't you think $300Mln is ridiculous for a 4th gen jet, when 5th gen F35 costs much lesser, base price of 5th gen F35 is $80Mln compared to 4th gen Rafale's $150Mln.