The ongoing U.S.-Israel-Iran war in the Middle East; which started out as an opportunistic war based on a ‘historic opportunity’ to reshape the geopolitical contours of the region; has now virtually turned over its head now after reaching a stalemate and a precarious ceasefire. Having started out as ‘Operation Epic Fury’, seemingly intended at regime change and degradation of Iranian missile & naval capabilities, has now, after whatever could be achieved via airstrikes has been achieved, has effectively turned into ‘Operation Economic Fury’ with Trump desperately seeking an exit off-ramp from the war via a negotiated settlement to the conflict.
The Trump administration's "master plan" is to let the Iran's primary storage tanks to get filled to capacity. As per the Trump Administration and the U.S. War planners thinking, once Kharg Island’s storage is saturated Iran will be forced to "shut in" its oil wells because there will be nowhere left to pump the crude which will force Iran to get subjugated economically and bow down to Trump’s wishes.
However, what the Trump Administration officials are unable to grasp is that blockades, sanctions & other economic punitive tools work very differently from military power as their operating mechanism is slow and takes significant time to show effect. Also, Iran’s internal oil storage capacity is roughly around 90 million barrels which is enough for almost 2 months while its ability to endure economic pain is way more than that.
Further, the usage of naval blockades as a policy instrument to choke a nation’s economy has rarely worked in history and it takes months & years for them to produce any kind of impact, just as regime changes have never been achieved via airstrikes alone, with Trump having tried similar blockades against Venezuela in December 2025 and since early this year in Cuba to prevent its access to imported oil. However, in both the scenarios the blockades failed to produce the desired effect
Thus, the hopes of Iran capitulating to Trump’s coercion via blockade is unlikely to materialize anytime soon especially given Trump’s impetuosity to get to a deal quickly on his terms and sell it as victory as the surge in gas prices are biting ordinary Americans and turning the broader public opinion back home increasingly against him which could have a huge impact in the upcoming mid-term elections slated to take place in November 2026 while Iran has played the patience & waiting game very well so far with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as it's Trump Card, masterstroke as well as super weapon...
