IAF's "Super Sukhoi" Upgrade Program Awaits Final CCS Approval, First Upgraded SU-30MKI Expected by 2028

The Indian Air Force (IAF) is poised to significantly enhance its combat capabilities with the planned upgrade of 84 SU-30MKI fighter jets under the "Super Sukhoi" program. The Ministry of Defence is nearing the finalization of this ambitious project, which aims to transform the SU-30MKI into a near fifth-generation platform.

The Defense Acquisition Council (DAC) granted approval for the upgrade on November 30, 2023, with an estimated budget of ₹63,000 crore. The proposal is now awaiting final clearance from the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS), headed by the Prime Minister.

Once approved, the project is expected to take approximately seven years for complete development and flight testing, with the first upgraded aircraft anticipated to be ready by 2028. The entire upgrade cycle for all 84 aircraft is estimated to span around 15 years.

The "Super Sukhoi" upgrade will encompass a wide range of enhancements, including:

Advanced Avionics and Cockpit: A modernized cockpit with new avionics and multifunction displays will improve pilot situational awareness and reduce workload. Helmet-mounted displays will further enhance combat effectiveness.

Cutting-Edge Radar System: The integration of an Virupaksha Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar will significantly boost the aircraft's detection range, accuracy, and electronic warfare capabilities.

Enhanced Electronic Warfare Suite: A state-of-the-art electronic warfare suite will provide the upgraded aircraft with improved jamming and countermeasure capabilities, crucial for operating in contested airspace.

Upgraded Engines: While the AL-31F engines will be retained, they are expected to undergo minor upgrades by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) to improve thrust and fuel efficiency.

Network-Centric Capabilities: Integration of advanced network-centric warfare systems will enable the SU-30MKI to seamlessly share data with other aircraft, ground stations, and naval assets, enhancing the IAF's overall situational awareness.

Expanded Weapon Systems: The "Super Sukhoi" will be compatible with a wider range of advanced weapons, including air-to-air missiles, precision-guided munitions, and potentially even hypersonic missiles.

Reduced Radar Cross-Section: While not a full-fledged stealth aircraft, the upgraded SU-30MKI will incorporate radar-absorbing materials (RAM) and possibly structural modifications to reduce its radar signature.

This comprehensive upgrade will significantly enhance the SU-30MKI's capabilities, making it a more formidable and versatile multi-role platform. The upgraded aircraft will play a crucial role in the IAF's combat fleet, complementing other advanced platforms like the Rafale and future indigenous stealth fighters.

The "Super Sukhoi" project underscores India's commitment to modernizing its defense capabilities. The collaboration with Russia on this project continues a long-standing partnership in the defense sector. Additionally, HAL's involvement in the upgrade process aligns with the "Make in India" initiative, boosting domestic defense manufacturing.

 

[PKPRS]

Not bad at all, this is great news, Tejas MK2 will be out in 2029, IAF is going to exceed 42 squadrons soon because of HAL. super-30 will rule the skies till 2075.

 

[Anant]

Not bad at all, this is great news, Tejas MK2 will be out in 2029, IAF is going to exceed 42 squadrons soon because of HAL. super-30 will rule the skies till 2075.

No, they aren't. Firstly, the Tejas Mk 2 isn't entering service until atleast 2032. We presently have 31 squadrons, comprising 13 Su-30MKI + 6 Jaguar + 3 Mirage 2000 + 3 MiG-29 + 2 Tejas Mk 1 + 2 Rafale + 2 MiG-21 squadrons. Of these, 17 are to be retained long-term (the Su-30MKI, Rafale, and Tejas Mk 1). That translates to a shortfall of 25 squadrons, or about 450-500 aircraft, plus attrition replacements.

Now, let's be as optimistic about HAL's production rates as practically possible

1. Let's assume HAL can start delivering the Tejas Mk 1A at a rate of 12 jets a year from 2025 to 2027, 16 jets a year thereafter till 2030, and 20 jets a year after that. That means we'd have 2 more Tejas Mk 1A squadrons by 2027, another 2.75 squadrons by 2030 (for a total of 84 jets), with the full order of 180 being concluded by 2035. 180 jets means 10 squadrons, so that has brought numbers up to 27.

2. The present plan for the Tejas Mk 2 is for 6 squadrons (108 jets). Realistically speaking, HAL can maybe start with 8 Tejas Mk 2s a year from 2032, scale it up to 12 a year by 2034 (by utilising part of the Tejas Mk 1A lines), and eventually to 16 a year by 2037 or so (once the Tejas Mk 1A lines are diverted completely, either to the Tejas Mk 2 or to AMCA Mk 1). That means one squadron by 2034, and a further two squadrons by 2034 (total of 52 jets), with the order for 6 squadrons being completed by 2038. If the order is increased to 8 squadrons, that would be done by 2041. At six squadrons, this means the IAF can reach about 33 squadrons by this point, and as high as 35 if you take the 8 squadron number.

3. AMCA may enter service around 2035 at the earliest. HAL can maybe start with 8 aircraft a year till 2038, and increase it to 16 as the Tejas Mk 1A lines divert to AMCA. The present plan is for 7 AMCA squadrons, which would be completed by 2044. If procurement is increased to 10 squadrons, then this would be done by 2047-48. That gives you a total of 40 squadrons at the least, and as high as 45 squadrons.

However, there is also retirement and attrition to factor in.

Going by normal loss rates for the IAF for the Su-30MKI (the Tejas has only had one accident so far and the Rafale is accident-free so far), we would lose about one squadron's worth of jets by 2040-42 (airframe aging means more accidents). That brings the number down to 39-44 squadrons.

Furthermore, the Su-30MKI is set to start retiring at roughly one squadron per year from 2043-44, which means that by 2047-48 (the timeline we are projecting for AMCA production to end), four squadrons would have retired, bringing numbers down to 36-40 squadrons, with a further 8 Su-30MKI squadrons retiring, followed by atleast the two Tejas Mk 1 squadrons.

So, no. Even with the best case scenario, HAL can possibly get the IAF to 42 squadrons by 2044 (without accidents). For a sustained 42 squadron capability, that would take until the late 2050s. Oh, and that is the best case scenario. For a realistic timeline, add 6-8 years to that.

Now, if you bring in 6 squadrons under MRFA, that timeline shrinks down to touching 42 squadrons by 2038-39, and sustained 42 squadron capability by 2045 or so.

 

[Anant]

No, the best case for roll-out is 2028. The more likely year is 2029-30.

Oh, and if anyone missed it, we are spending roughly 89 million USD per jet for the upgrade. This is only a modernisation, not a new jet. Hence, people saying you can get jets under MRFA for 90 million or 100 million USD apiece should re-evaluate their math on this matter.

 

[Vineet Sharma]

As always while spending money on my vehicle I think that i should continue using it or by small investment to maintenance and resale cost I can buy new.. But i always stick with Upgradtion of my vehicle because I know most valuable part is man machine interface.. It worth spending. Good going

 

[tipoo2]

15 years to complete... So about 2040 for all 84 airframes, before the many delays we can expect.

Well, so much for that being our best near term bandaid. I guess the first ones being in 2028 isn't so bad but that's only for a few aircraft and it's going to take so long to get them in numbers.

The time to the first one is one thing but after that they really should be expedited, there will surely be at least two, up to 3-4 sixth gen programs flying by then and if we get the last one of these upgraded airframes in 2040, when are we going to be flying them into, 2060? 2070?

Yeesh. Clearly a major fighter acquisition is needed.

 

[abhinav srivastava]

Upgrade package is good but 15 years is too long.

 

[Anant]

15 years to complete... So about 2040 for all 84 airframes, before the many delays we can expect.

That 15 year figure is for all airframes that will undergo this project, not just the first 84.

 

[kurtwallis wallis]

Upgrade package is good but 15 years is too long.

Virupaksha GaN AESA radars designs and testing will take 10+ years now; as IAF want some 2500 T/R modules and make it like an AWAC plane with MUM-T features also! Airframe cutting metal parts removal and replacing with CCM polymer composites PLUS, flight testing IOIC-FOC, here very easily 8 years will go for that only!

 

[Akshat]

Not bad at all, this is great news, Tejas MK2 will be out in 2029, IAF is going to exceed 42 squadrons soon because of HAL. super-30 will rule the skies till 2075.

Yeah, just like HAL said they will start producing mk2 in 2016 😂😂😂

 

[Marcus]

Indian airforce need atleast 60 squadrons as per current dynamics at global stage by 2030-2035 and 80 to 100 squadrons by 2050, need to increase defence budget to 150 billion USD at present.

 

[Sandeep]

India needs to speed up this critical jet overhaul and upgrade it as the technology used is over 20 years old. The upgrade will enhance the jet’s capabilities and increase its lifespan. We should also paint it with radar absorbing material to reduce its radar cross section and increase its stealth capabilities as much as possible.

 

[Dredd]

That 15 year figure is for all airframes that will undergo this project, not just the first 84.

Article says the upgrade cycle for 84 jets will take 15 years. by that calculation they will take 45 years to update all, may be they will pull out the Su30MKi from museum in 2070 to upgrade them, I sure will be in god's abode by then, with regret of not able to see Super sukhoi upgrade project completion. I think i need to remove this project from my wish else my aatma will be roaming around in HAL campus terrorising Babu's in night.

 

[PKPRS]

Yeah, just like HAL said they will start producing mk2 in 2016 😂😂😂

just like Dassault says it is making 24 Rafale’s/year, 2/month according to you, when they struggle to make 10/year in reality, aspirations and dreams have no limits.

 

[PKPRS]

No, the best case for roll-out is 2028. The more likely year is 2029-30.

Oh, and if anyone missed it, we are spending roughly 89 million USD per jet for the upgrade. This is only a modernisation, not a new jet. Hence, people saying you can get jets under MRFA for 90 million or 100 million USD apiece should re-evaluate their math on this matter.

what about the $60 Mln we paid for each useless Mirage upgrade, that doesn’t seem waste of money to you?

 

[kurtwallis wallis]

As always while spending money on my vehicle I think that i should continue using it or by small investment to maintenance and resale cost I can buy new.. But i always stick with Upgradtion of my vehicle because I know most valuable part is man machine interface.. It worth spending. Good going

Good spending and necessary tech transfers exercises for SS upgrades. HAL and a lot of pvt players will gain a lot of useful tech's and garner precious experiences. Then we offer to Vietnam and Indonesia also at lowest costs possible to fund our own SU57 & SU75 purchases next...

 

[Anant]

what about the $60 Mln we paid for each useless Mirage upgrade, that doesn’t seem waste of money to you?

Boss, I wholeheartedly agree that the Mirage 2000 upgrade was a failed endeavour. You won't find me disagreeing on that.

All I am saying is that fighters are more expensive than a lot of people think.

 

[tipoo2]

That 15 year figure is for all airframes that will undergo this project, not just the first 84.

The upgrade for all 84 aircraft will take 15 years to complete

 

[tipoo2]

Article says the upgrade cycle for 84 jets will take 15 years. by that calculation they will take 45 years to update all, may be they will pull out the Su30MKi from museum in 2070 to upgrade them, I sure will be in god's abode by then, with regret of not able to see Super sukhoi upgrade project completion. I think i need to remove this project from my wish else my aatma will be roaming around in HAL campus terrorising Babu's in night.

I don't think they're upgrading all we have, there's a wide stretch between the oldest airframes and the newest which were delivered rather recently, plus the new 12. The oldest few batches will surely be retired by the end of when they'd all be upgraded anyways.

 

[Anant]

The upgrade for all 84 aircraft will take 15 years to complete

Boss, a number of sources have quoted 15 years for the whole program, with the proviso that the whole fleet wouldn't necessarily be upgraded. Some of the oldest batches may well just receive an overhaul rather than the upgrade.

I am more inclined to believe those sources than I am here. In fact, this may well be a typo. After all, we build Su-30MKIs several times faster than this.

 

[tipoo2]

Boss, a number of sources have quoted 15 years for the whole program, with the proviso that the whole fleet wouldn't necessarily be upgraded. Some of the oldest batches may well just receive an overhaul rather than the upgrade.

I am more inclined to believe those sources than I am here. In fact, this may well be a typo. After all, we build Su-30MKIs several times faster than this.

Well exactly - how many batches are so old that such an expensive upgrade isn't worth it and they'll be nearing airframe retirement by the tail end of this? 84 are the newest batches

 

[Anant]

Well exactly - how many batches are so old that such an expensive upgrade isn't worth it and they'll be nearing airframe retirement by the tail end of this? 84 are the newest batches

The 272 aircraft were built in six broad batches. There was Batch 1, which were the first 50 jets which were built in Russia. Next, we had 40 jets under Batch 2, which were built by HAL using knock-down kits. This was followed by 45 jets in Batch 3, which were built by HAL using semi-knocked-down kits. There was then the 45-strong Batch 4, which started the trend of significant manufacturing in India. This was followed by Batch 5, which was the first follow-on order, and comprised 40 jets. The final group was the 42-strong Batch 6, which are supposedly the jets capable of carrying nuclear weapons as well.

The rough timelines of these batches were: Batch 1 (2002-04), Batch 2 (2005-08), Batch 3 (2009-12), Batch 4 (2012-15), Batch 5 (2016-18), and Batch 6 (2018-21). Hence, the Batch 1 airframes would be over 40 years old by 2045, with the Batch 2 jets not too far behind.

If I had to hazard a guess, going by the IAF's intention to retire 90-100 or so jets by 2045, this would be the Batch 1 and Batch 2 airframes. Logically, therefore, it would be unlikely to see all of these getting upgraded, with only some of the better-condition airframes going in for the upgrade. Logically, I would also posit that the rest of the fleet will receive the upgrades with the exception of airframes deemed to be too old or worn-out.

The specific number of 84 is also interesting. Keeping a fleet strength of 271 (259 at present + 12 orders), 100-ish retirements means you'd have about 170 jets left. 84 times 2 is 168. Therefore, it could be possible that the IAF is looking at upgrading 168 or so jets, and is dividing that into two batches.