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The Ministry of Defence (MoD) is actively evaluating a significant proposal to revise the Indian Air Force’s (IAF) authorised fighter squadron strength, potentially raising the benchmark from the long-standing 42 to 50 or higher.
This strategic reassessment is largely driven by critical operational insights gained during Operation Sindoor, the intense conflict between India and Pakistan in May 2025.
While the IAF’s retaliatory strikes during the operation displayed commendable precision, the conflict underscored a vital lesson: air dominance in modern warfare is not solely about initial superiority. Instead, it hinges on the capacity to sustain a high operational tempo over extended periods.
Defence analysts have pointed out that the ability to regenerate forces, manage logistics, and absorb attrition played a decisive role in the later phases of the conflict. These findings have prompted planners to question whether existing numerical targets are sufficient for future high-intensity scenarios.
The Two-Front Challenge
For decades, a sanctioned strength of 42 squadrons—each comprising roughly 18 to 20 aircraft—has been considered the minimum force level required to deter and, if necessary, fight a simultaneous two-front war against China and Pakistan.However, the security landscape has evolved rapidly. The People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has modernised at a breakneck pace, fielding over 2,000 combat aircraft, including a growing fleet of stealth fighters.
Simultaneously, the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) has bolstered its capabilities by integrating advanced Chinese platforms like the J-10C ‘Vigorous Dragon’, which features Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radars and long-range missiles.
Internal assessments and media reports now suggest that 42 squadrons may be inadequate to handle these collusive threats, particularly if a "two-and-a-half front" contingency—involving non-state actors or hybrid warfare—emerges.
Consequently, some defence experts are advocating for a force structure of 50 to 60 squadrons to ensure credible strategic deterrence and operational depth.
Boost for Indigenous Industry
A decision to officially raise the squadron ceiling would have profound implications for the Indian aerospace industry.Sources close to the development indicate that such an increase would primarily be met through indigenous production, giving a massive impetus to key programmes like the Tejas Mk2 and the fifth-generation Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA).
Currently, confirmed plans for these platforms account for approximately 240 jets, enough to equip 12 to 13 squadrons. Expanding the IAF’s strength to 50 squadrons—effectively adding eight more—would necessitate orders for roughly 160 additional fighters.
This would secure production lines for decades, drive economies of scale, and align perfectly with the India's Atmanirbhar Bharat initiative.
Future Backbone: Tejas Mk2 and AMCA
The Tejas Mk2 is poised to become the workhorse of the future fleet.A significant upgrade over the Mk1A, this 4.5-generation medium-weight fighter features close-coupled canards and the powerful GE F414 engine, offering enhanced range, greater payload capacity (up to 6.5 tonnes), and advanced avionics.
Prototype rollout is expected soon, with production ramping up in the late 2020s.
Simultaneously, the AMCA programme is critical for India’s entry into the elite club of nations with fifth-generation stealth fighters.
Designed for deep penetration missions, the AMCA will feature stealth technology, internal weapons bays, and supercruise capabilities, forming the spearhead of the IAF’s offensive power.
Addressing the Deficit
The proposal comes at a time when the IAF is grappling with a depleted force level, with active squadron strength dipping below 30 following the retirement of legacy platforms like the MiG-21.Accelerating domestic production is now viewed not just as an economic goal, but as a strategic necessity to bridge this gap without relying on expensive foreign imports.
While no official timeline for the decision has been announced, the deliberations signal a major pivot in India’s defence planning—moving towards a larger, self-sustained air force capable of prevailing in protracted conflicts across multiple fronts.
