Pakistani Social Media Calls for Conflict Over Kashmir Amidst Tejas Delay, But Forgets Its Own Strategic and Economic Realities

At the 21st Subroto Mukerjee Seminar, Indian Air Force Chief Air Chief Marshal A.P. Singh expressed his concern over the continued delay in the delivery of the first 40 Tejas aircraft, an order placed over a decade ago.

This statement comes at a time when regional adversaries, especially China, are rapidly advancing their aerial warfare capabilities, with recent reports confirming China's test flight of a highly advanced sixth-generation fighter jet.

The situation has triggered reactions beyond India's borders, particularly among Pakistani social media users on X (formerly Twitter). Some accounts, allegedly backed by Pakistan's ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence), have seized upon this delay to provocatively suggest that India's current fighter jet procurement situation presents an opportunity for Pakistan to initiate conflict and "reclaim" Kashmir. However, these calls for conflict seem to overlook crucial strategic and economic realities.

Firstly, Pakistan is grappling with severe economic turmoil, including soaring inflation, dwindling foreign reserves, and a mounting debt crisis. Engaging in another conflict with India, which would inevitably require significant financial resources, appears highly improbable given the country's precarious economic situation.

Secondly, the notion that air superiority alone can determine the outcome of a conflict is a flawed understanding of modern warfare. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war serves as a stark reminder. Despite possessing a formidable air force, Russia has struggled to achieve complete air dominance over Ukraine. This demonstrates that ground operations, logistics, and international support play vital roles in modern warfare.

Furthermore, India has significantly invested in sophisticated air defence systems like the S-400 Triumf from Russia and the indigenous Medium Range Surface-to-Air Missile (MRSAM). These systems provide a robust shield against aerial threats, significantly diminishing the effectiveness of any potential Pakistani air incursions.

The aggressive rhetoric on X from Pakistani handles appears to disregard the complexities of modern warfare, where air superiority is just one element of a much larger strategic picture. India's air defence systems, coupled with its formidable ground forces and strategic alliances, create a multi-layered defence strategy that would make any military adventure by Pakistan extremely challenging and potentially disastrous.

While the delay in the Tejas program is a matter of concern for the IAF, it is crucial to remember that India's defence capabilities extend far beyond any single aircraft program. Pakistan's social media provocations, fueled by a narrow and unrealistic view of modern warfare, should not be misconstrued as a genuine threat to India's security.

 

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[Kailash]

Network or damn good anti-stealth radars and SAMs is the way to clean up the skies of stealth. Standardize SAMs to give a continuous range cover - SRSAM, Akash, Quick reaction missiles, to MRSAMs to LRSAM to AD1/AD2 type missiles interceptors to cheap small missiles for drone hardkill. We need to network these into a system like S400/S500

Long range AWACS carrying 1-2 dozen Astra Mk3 missiles should be your best bet to knock down Chinese stealth planes from the air, at a standoff distance. AMCA will be a decade or two behind schedule - so don't even try to fight stealth with stealth.

 

[Ronit Roy]

Hmm, J35s had not got inducted by them yet, then on what basis are this people talking about achieving air superiority? We had also started induction of limited Astra mk2 with range of 160kms and Astra mk3 had completed its ground based testing. Most probably after 2-3 years, it will also be inducted, with range of 350kms. Unless China will not back them, they don't have any match against us. It's the fact that IAF squadron is on its all time low, but still we have SU30, Mirage 2000, Mig29 and Rafael in our arsenal. And if all things will go well, then mk2 will be there in IAF with IOC by 2028-29. Ones engine delivery will get start properly then mk1a will also be there in IAF. Also, we are working on project Kusha air defence of Max range 350km, that will complement S400.

I guess defence topics need deep understanding, such type of over simplification are mostly done by those who have flat brain.

 

[KVS]

I'm surprised that Pakistanis always believe that they can defeat India whatever may their pathetic situation. Look at the present Pak Army's war with Afghan Taliban. It's amusing that Pak Army finds an under armed group difficult to fight.
Yet, they are talking about defeating a much superior Indian Military with ease. What an unthinkable delusion! 🫢
And, this is not the first time they claiming like this. Pakistan really looks like a cursed nation.

 

[S. Gupta]

With Turkey Bangladesh Maldives on Pakistan China side India has been encircled now only way out is to create a circle around circle. But geography do not allow much space. Thought there are areas countries can be merged like Bhutan Nepal Myanmar, Cambodia Laos, Vietnam, Thailand and in South China sea like Brunei etc. and African islands like Seychelles Somalia, Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania Comroos, Mauritus, Djibouti etc. Looks like Nepal and Bhutan too are being lured by China.

 

[Biju UK]

All this discussions stem out of the fact that HAL has been absolutely dismal in fulfilling commitments to the IAF and there is absolutely no light at the end of the tunnel. Literally they have boxed our armed forces to a corner wherein we are years behind in numbers and quality . The IAF chief is begging for a 4th Gen fighter when Pakistan is acquiring a 5th Gen in 2-3 years and China is trying out 6th Gen. Whoever rules , HAL goes its own way which is remarkably consistent . Resplendent with failures , missed dead lines (missed by a mile does not apply to HAL , its always missed by miles and miles and miles......) has been the virtues of HAL. I could go on but then it will only be repetition.

 

[Akshat]

Hmm, J35s had not got inducted by them yet, then on what basis are this people talking about achieving air superiority? We had also started induction of limited Astra mk2 with range of 160kms and Astra mk3 had completed its ground based testing. Most probably after 2-3 years, it will also be inducted, with range of 350kms. Unless China will not back them, they don't have any match against us. It's the fact that IAF squadron is on its all time low, but still we have SU30, Mirage 2000, Mig29 and Rafael in our arsenal. And if all things will go well, then mk2 will be there in IAF with IOC by 2028-29. Ones engine delivery will get start properly then mk1a will also be there in IAF. Also, we are working on project Kusha air defence of Max range 350km, that will complement S400.

I guess defence topics need deep understanding, such type of over simplification are mostly done by those who have flat brain.

We have not started induction of Mk2 bro. IAF has just started the process of induction, which usually starts way before the product is even ready for user trials. Mk2 ain't coming for at least the next 5 years in LSP, and Mk3 won't be coming till at least 2032 as of now. 2 more years for user trials for Mk2, assuming it starts today, and then about 3 years for actual deliveries. Add about 3 years of developmental trials for Mk3. So 2032 for that.

As for Mk2, it ain't coming till at least 2040, and I am being super optimistic about that. Look at the developmental timelines of Tejas and you will realize that I am acting like a lovebird for HAL by saying 2040.

Coming to Mk1A, engines are the least of our problems. Engines for Tejas trainers were given way back in 2020 and HAL has refused to deliver the jets. So even if we get engines, Mk1A deliveries are not likely to start any time soon. Not coming for at least 3 more years as of now.

This is the actual deep understanding one needs bro. Just believing the lies of HAL and DRDO are mostly done by flat brains.

 

[Ronit Roy]

We have not started induction of Mk2 bro. IAF has just started the process of induction, which usually starts way before the product is even ready for user trials. Mk2 ain't coming for at least the next 5 years in LSP, and Mk3 won't be coming till at least 2032 as of now. 2 more years for user trials for Mk2, assuming it starts today, and then about 3 years for actual deliveries. Add about 3 years of developmental trials for Mk3. So 2032 for that.

As for Mk2, it ain't coming till at least 2040, and I am being super optimistic about that. Look at the developmental timelines of Tejas and you will realize that I am acting like a lovebird for HAL by saying 2040.

Coming to Mk1A, engines are the least of our problems. Engines for Tejas trainers were given way back in 2020 and HAL has refused to deliver the jets. So even if we get engines, Mk1A deliveries are not likely to start any time soon. Not coming for at least 3 more years as of now.

This is the actual deep understanding one needs bro. Just believing the lies of HAL and DRDO are mostly done by flat brains.

I don't write anything randomly, like whatever random timelines you had mentioned. My source is Alpha defence. According to that guy, Astra mk2 had gone in production, I repeat, missile had gone in production, and source is Alpha defence. If you have any doubt about it, go and question him, it will give you a clear idea about who actually have flat brain.

 

[Akshat]

I don't write anything randomly, like whatever random timelines you had mentioned. My source is Alpha defence. According to that guy, Astra mk2 had gone in production, I repeat, missile had gone in production, and source is Alpha defence. If you have any doubt about it, go and question him, it will give you a clear idea about who actually have flat brain.

Lol...you mean Subodh (I think that's his name)? He is nothing but an echo chamber of DRDO and DPSUs, used to spread their lies. Go to that video and you won't find a single source. Go to his channel and you will find videos claiming Mk2 will be rolled out in 2022. And a guy (named Wonderkid I guess) did question him regarding Kaveri engines and Subodh got offended and challenged him to provide proof, promising to accept his mistake if an official data source is given. He was given Parliamentary documents in response but Subodh ran away and never made any video or responded to repeated comments by that guy ever again. So yeah, he is a very reliable source, sure. All his videos definitely don't spread any lies just to somehow defend DRDO and DPSUs.

 

[Ronit Roy]

Lol...you mean Subodh (I think that's his name)? He is nothing but an echo chamber of DRDO and DPSUs, used to spread their lies. Go to that video and you won't find a single source. Go to his channel and you will find videos claiming Mk2 will be rolled out in 2022. And a guy (named Wonderkid I guess) did question him regarding Kaveri engines and Subodh got offended and challenged him to provide proof, promising to accept his mistake if an official data source is given. He was given Parliamentary documents in response but Subodh ran away and never made any video or responded to repeated comments by that guy ever again. So yeah, he is a very reliable source, sure. All his videos definitely don't spread any lies just to somehow defend DRDO and DPSUs.

Hmm, in a video I guess a month ago posted, he told that an information got extracted out of parliamentary committee report that procurement process of Astra mk2 got begin. May be you are correct, but guess what, you also don't have any solid source and just continuosly criticising the organizations. There is only one way to confirm it, wait for a picture where a fighter of IAF will carry Astra mk2 with it.

 

[Akshat]

Hmm, in a video I guess a month ago posted, he told that an information got extracted out of parliamentary committee report that procurement process of Astra mk2 got begin. May be you are correct, but guess what, you also don't have any solid source and just continuosly criticising the organizations. There is only one way to confirm it, wait for a picture where a fighter of IAF will carry Astra mk2 with it.

Oh I do have solid sources, sir. Report of a review committee, for instance? A PMO led committee said that DRDO is responsible for about 60% of all delays in our product development. Is that not a rather big number and a credible source? CAG says that most DRDO programs see either cost overruns or time delays or both. Is CAG data not reliable? So we may not have data specific to Astra Mk2, but that's the case with you as well. But past data indicates that any program given to DRDO is almost guaranteed to miss the deadlines and that is mostly due to the faults of DRDO. So if we do have to assume one or the other, we should assume that Astra Mk2 is delayed and isn't coming anytime soon. Based on historical evidence.

 

[Ronit Roy]

Oh I do have solid sources, sir. Report of a review committee, for instance? A PMO led committee said that DRDO is responsible for about 60% of all delays in our product development. Is that not a rather big number and a credible source? CAG says that most DRDO programs see either cost overruns or time delays or both. Is CAG data not reliable? So we may not have data specific to Astra Mk2, but that's the case with you as well. But past data indicates that any program given to DRDO is almost guaranteed to miss the deadlines and that is mostly due to the faults of DRDO. So if we do have to assume one or the other, we should assume that Astra Mk2 is delayed and isn't coming anytime soon. Based on historical evidence.

I was reading an article, and I got to know that our dry kaveri was going for high altitude testing in Russia, I ask why? Why we don't have such facilities in India itself and why should we rely on external sources?, GOI have money for freebies, states have money for freebies, but why not for R&D. Developing tech is not that easy as it seems. Maybe DRDO is responsible for delays, but they are not the sole reason, if we don't want to invest on R&D, then we don't have to expect things on time. Afterall it's trial and error. Blaming only one side is not a complete solution at all. And talking about Astra mk2, I am not going to make any prediction.

 

[Akshat]

I was reading an article, and I got to know that our dry kaveri was going for high altitude testing in Russia, I ask why? Why we don't have such facilities in India itself and why should we rely on external sources?, GOI have money for freebies, states have money for freebies, but why not for R&D. Developing tech is not that easy as it seems. Maybe DRDO is responsible for delays, but they are not the sole reason, if we don't want to invest on R&D, then we don't have to expect things on time. Afterall it's trial and error. Blaming only one side is not a complete solution at all. And talking about Astra mk2, I am not going to make any prediction.

Who said we don't have money for R&D? But can you make it all in a single go? Did GTRE even ask for it till now? And if they did, did they do anything to qualify for that sort of grants?

I remember the reply of one of our defense ministers in the Parliament. He said that one of the causes for delays in Kaveri engine was that GTRE had never asked for a FTB in the first place. In fact, they raised that demand for the first time in 2006, almost 2 decades after they started working on the program and almost a decade after they were supposed to finish the project.

And lets say that the funds were not given for that particular test facility. So what? Did GoI refuse to pay for taking the engine to Russia? What is the problem with going to Russia and getting it tested? GoI is paying for it, right? Do it as many times as need be, GoI is footing the bill. You first have to create a minimum viable product, then ask for more funding to create the rest of the infra. You have to achieve those milestones first. You are telling me about R&D, but I have worked for a pretty long time in R&D in the private sector and I can tell you this, this is the standard practice. You always have to earn your funds by proving your technology or the product in small steps. GoI on it's part has given pretty much a blank check to GTRE. They gave the amount GTRE asked for initially, and then kept on giving additional funds as and when asked by them.

So is DRDO the sole cause? Probably not. But there is empirical data to support the assertion that DRDO is the single biggest cause.

And you did make a prediction, although you did add later on that the prediction is not yours but Alpha Defense's. But still, you did make a prediction or at least you did reproduce one. And that prediction, based on historical evidence, is not a viable one.