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GE, unsurprisingly, has been way behind schedule on the deliveries of the F404-IN20 engines to India for the Tejas Mk1A program, with only the 7th engine just delivered by the American aerospace giant barely days ago, after almost 5 years of the signing of the original contract in 2021.
However, the bigger story & issue of-late has been the indirect denial strategies being adopted by GE to India of its flagship medium-thrust engine, the F414, after the Indian defence planners having duly committed the folly of selecting it and having designed not just one but the triad of India's next generation fighter jets for the IAF (and the Indian Navy), namely, Tejas Mk2, TEDBF and the strategic AMCA program. These jets are intended to replace IAF's declining fighter fleet strength following the retirement of multiple ageing legacy jets in its inventory. However, doing that without securing & ensuring the uninterrupted supply of engines with a domestic production line under license was a strategic folly.
While the endgame of GE's ongoing engines PowerPlay with India is yet to play out; it, however, is invariably, inadvertently & inevitably going to end up further bolstering the already robust India-Russia Geopolitical ties by ensuring that India ends up doling out a crucial financial & strategic lifeline to Russia amid it's ongoing war with Ukraine for over 4 years.
And that lifeline is going to be the procurement by India of the Russian 5th generation stealth jet, the Su-57E Felon going forward for an interim 5th generation capability, as the AMCA is likely to invariably get delayed now owing to the latest GE engine fiasco. The interim stealth jet capability is crucial for India to match it's arch-rival Pakistan's rapid strides towards the deployment of the Chinese J-35 5th generation fighter jet, which is likely by 2027 at the earliest, with the PAF's pilot training for the same having already begun in China. However, China, too, poses a growing regional threat to India by being the only nation globally to deploy two 5th generation stealth jets simultaneously, the J-20 & J-35, with a 6th generation jet in active development.
The highly likely procurement of a limited number of the twin-seat Su-57E variant by India; integrated with the latest Indian radar, avionics, weapons and missile systems, under a co-development & co-production model within India at HAL's existing Su-30MKI FALs; is likely to turn into a highly potent, stealthy strike & air superiority platform and provide a huge fillup to the IAF's force structure & lethality be a highly potent platform going forward, almost as a generational successor to its existing & massive fleet of Su-30MKIs.
However, for a financially struggling Russia, which has already spent almost $2.5 Trillion in the Ukraine War since 2022, it is likely to provide a crucial, multi-billion dollar international exports deal from a trusted customer & development partner. Additionally, it will also provide a huge endorsement for the Su-57, especially, coming from the World's 4th largest Air Force and the world’s third-most powerful air arm (ranking in the latest global airpower rankings published by the World Directory of Modern Military Aircraft (WDMMA)), the IAF, which would be a massive boost for the Su-57 platform in the international exports market going forward.
Thus, the underlying American gameplan of coercively pushing India towards its F-35, if any, will, in turn, only end up regressing & maneuvering India back towards the Russian orbit, almost in a classic orbit change maneuver away from the nascent move towards the American orbit in the 21st century, underscored by huge & multi-billion dollar deals so far for the procurement of C-130Js, C-17 Globemaster IIIs, P-8I Poseidons, Apache, Chinook & MH-70 Naval helicopters and GE engines deals for the F404 & F414 engine programs.
For India's indigenous fighter programs, the engine denials may cause delays but will come as a virtual catalyst for further indigenization of even propulsion systems, as the egress of GE, with the squandering of its first mover advantage, will inevitably mean an ingress with a huge, long term economic opportunity for the European aerospace partners, as engine suppliers & technology co-development partners, in what would simply be termed as India's backward aerospace shift & drift towards traditional & time-tested reliability & partners while ensuring strategic autonomy & overall geopolitical sovereignty...
