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Pakistan could potentially field nuclear-powered submarines by 2028, significantly enhancing its naval capabilities and potentially altering the strategic balance in the Indian Ocean Region, a retired senior naval officer has claimed.
Commodore (R) Obaidullah, in a recent interview with Suno News HD, suggested that this milestone could be achieved within the next five years, although he did not specify the type of nuclear submarines being considered.
Commodore Obaidullah highlighted that the Pakistan Navy already possesses a credible second-strike nuclear capability, a strategic deterrent possessed by only a handful of nations worldwide.
This capability is crucial in nuclear deterrence theory as it ensures a nation can retaliate with nuclear weapons even if its primary land-based nuclear assets are destroyed in a preemptive first strike.
Pakistan's claim to a second-strike capability is primarily attributed to its Babur-3 submarine-launched cruise missile (SLCM). Successfully tested in 2017, the Babur-3 reportedly boasts a range of 450 kilometers and is believed to be deployable from Pakistan's existing fleet of conventionally powered submarines, primarily French-designed Agosta 90B (Khalid-class) submarines.
However the limited range of Babur 3 puts a question mark on its effectiveness as a second strike capability.
While Commodore Obaidullah's remarks did not elaborate on the specifics of the potential nuclear submarine program, speculation naturally turns to China, Pakistan's close ally and a major defence partner.
China has been instrumental in Pakistan's naval modernization efforts, notably through the ongoing delivery of eight advanced Yuan-class (Type 039B) diesel-electric submarines equipped with air-independent propulsion (AIP) systems.
These submarines, considered among the quietest in their class, are expected to be fully delivered by 2028 and could potentially be modified to carry nuclear-capable missiles.
Should Pakistan pursue the development or acquisition of either ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) or nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs), it is widely believed that China would play a crucial role. This could involve direct procurement of Chinese-designed submarines or the transfer of critical technologies to facilitate indigenous development.
China's own naval inventory includes Type 093 (Shang-class) SSNs and Type 094 (Jin-class) SSBNs, which could potentially serve as models or starting points for a Pakistani program.
Furthermore, China has recently unveiled the Type 093B, a modernized variant of the Type 093, showcasing advancements in silencing technology and weapons capabilities, further fueling speculation about potential technology transfers.
Pakistan's pursuit of nuclear submarines is viewed in the context of its broader efforts to enhance its maritime capabilities, particularly in response to the Indian Navy's growing blue-water aspirations.
The Indian Navy operates the INS Arihant, its first indigenous SSBN, and is developing further vessels in this class, while also pursuing an SSN program. The induction of such capable platforms by India has been a significant driver for Pakistan's naval modernization strategy, aiming to maintain a credible deterrent in the maritime domain.
It is important to note that while the comments of a retired officer offer valuable insight, they do not constitute official confirmation of a nuclear submarine program. Pakistan's government has not officially announced any plans to develop or acquire nuclear submarines.
Nevertheless, the discussion highlights the growing importance of the maritime domain in South Asia's strategic calculations and the potential for increased naval competition in the years to come.
India will be closely watching developments in this area, given the potential implications for regional stability and nuclear proliferation.
