Although recent months have seen a resurgence of claims suggesting Islamabad is on the brink of procuring approximately 40 J-35 fifth-generation stealth jets from China, a defence analyst based in Beijing asserts that the Chinese government will probably not greenlight such a transaction anytime soon, ignoring the rampant speculation.
In a piece published by The Diplomat, Yang Xiaotong, an assistant researcher at an independent Beijing think tank focused on China-Middle East and North Africa ties, highlights that while whispers of a J-35 deal have surfaced periodically since 2024, there are no officially inked agreements and zero airframes have been handed over.
Yang explains that such a transaction would completely upend the existing military equilibrium in South Asia, primarily because neither Islamabad nor New Delhi currently fields any domestically built or foreign fifth-generation fighter jets in their active squadrons.
He contends that handing over 40 J-35s to Pakistan would fundamentally shift the dynamic, but notes that Beijing has strong geopolitical motives for holding off on this move.
According to the analyst, a primary factor is China’s objective to maintain the current balance of power between New Delhi and Islamabad.
Even though China remains Pakistan’s most vital defence ally and top provider of cutting-edge military equipment, Yang believes Beijing is reluctant to hand Islamabad a massive technological edge that could foster reckless military actions.
Introducing a substantial squadron of stealth jets might encourage Pakistan to take a far more aggressive stance along the Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir, thereby escalating the chances of a conflict between the two nuclear-capable nations.
For Beijing, sparking such regional turmoil would directly contradict China’s wider strategic goals.
Instead of getting indirectly drawn into a South Asian military clash, the Chinese government is currently channelling its resources towards preparing for potential crises in the Western Pacific, where its rivalry with the United States stands as its highest security priority.
The researcher also points out another pragmatic hurdle: the pressing needs of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) itself.
The J-35 has only just been integrated into the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) and Navy (PLAN). In fact, China is concurrently fielding these stealth fighters in its carrier-based squadrons as a crucial component of a massive naval aviation overhaul.
Sending 40 jets to Pakistan right now would undeniably clash with China’s internal production quotas.
The piece stresses that redirecting even a single squadron from domestic assembly lines could leave the PLAN’s aircraft carrier fleets severely depleted, right at a time when Beijing is aggressively growing its maritime capabilities in anticipation of potential standoffs with the US and allied forces.
To mitigate these bottlenecks, open-source reports indicate that the Shenyang Aircraft Corporation has recently expanded its assembly facilities to significantly boost production through 2026, yet fulfilling massive domestic military demands remains the absolute priority.
Protecting sensitive technology is yet another significant worry.
Yang observes that the J-35 is a far cry from previous Chinese fighter exports, like the J-10CE.
While any jet shipped to Pakistan would almost certainly be heavily downgraded for export, the analyst asserts that its core stealth profile, flight dynamics, and sensor frameworks would still remain intact.
Even a slight leak of these capabilities could be a goldmine for foreign espionage agencies.
He cautions that classified engineering data regarding the jet's radar signature, avionics layout, and stealth properties could ultimately fall into the hands of nations eager to dissect and neutralise China’s premier combat aircraft.
In contrast to the J-10, which is an established fourth-generation-plus fighter, the J-35 incorporates some of the most classified aerospace innovations China has ever produced.
Yang notes that the J-35 stands at the absolute zenith of Chinese military aviation, which means authorising its export carries far heavier consequences than any prior aircraft deals.
The publication also looks back at the fighter's developmental roots.
Initially, the J-35 was a privately financed initiative by the Shenyang Aircraft Corporation aimed at luring international buyers, before it ultimately secured formal support from the PLA.
As the jet’s design progressed, both the Chinese Navy and Air Force embraced it for their future combat fleets.
Despite doubting the likelihood of a near-term delivery, Yang doesn't completely rule out the prospect of an eventual export deal.
He points to emerging reports that Pakistani aviators have already commenced familiarisation training for the aircraft, hinting that foundational preparations could be in motion.
While this doesn't prove an active manufacturing contract or a set delivery timetable, it certainly demonstrates Islamabad's lingering intent to operate the stealth fighter in the future.
Recent reports from mid-2026 suggests that Pakistan hopes to eventually bundle the export variant of the jet, known as the J-35AE, with KJ-500 airborne early warning aircraft and HQ-19 air defence systems to build a comprehensive modern combat network.
For New Delhi, the article offers a fascinating window into the strategic calculus of the Chinese leadership.
This broader context is particularly relevant as India advances its own indigenous Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) programme, which is not projected to enter frontline service for several years.
Rather than treating the matter purely as a standard arms transaction, Yang frames the export choice as a massive geopolitical equation that balances regional peace, the PLA’s immediate modernisation needs, and the strict safeguarding of next-generation stealth technologies.
