India's nuclear arsenal is undergoing a measured expansion in response to developments in China, according to Aditya Ramanathan, a nuclear and military strategist at the Takshashila Institution.
This comes in the wake of a report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) that noted a global increase in nuclear weapons, including India's.
While the exact size of India's arsenal remains undisclosed, most studies estimate it to be between 150-200 warheads.
Ramanathan stated that any increase in the number of warheads is a direct consequence of China's escalating nuclear capabilities, citing evidence from 2021 of large silo fields in Western China that could potentially house hundreds of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).
Additionally, China's development of advanced missiles like the DF-41 and DF-27, alongside its deployment of ballistic missile submarines and missile defenses, has heightened India's concerns.
Ramanathan emphasized that India's approach is cautious and well-reasoned, focusing on specific capabilities rather than competing with China in sheer numbers.
This includes increasing the survivability of its nuclear forces by deploying Arihant-class ballistic missile submarines, potentially establishing an airborne command post for continuity in nuclear command and control, and developing the Agni V missile with multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs) to penetrate Chinese missile defenses.
While China remains the primary concern, Ramanathan acknowledged that India must also closely monitor developments in Pakistan and the potential emergence of new nuclear powers in West Asia.
India's commitment to its No-First-Use (NFU) policy remains unwavering, according to Ramanathan. The policy aims to deter adversaries from using their own weapons of mass destruction by assuring them of India's capability to inflict severe retaliatory damage in the event of a nuclear first strike.
