The ambitious AUKUS trilateral security pact between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, which promised to deliver advanced nuclear-powered submarines (SSNs) to Australia, appears to be facing significant hurdles.
Recent reports from the US Congressional Research Service highlight challenges in the American shipbuilding industry, potentially jeopardizing the timely delivery of these crucial vessels.
This development has opened a window of opportunity for India, which possesses a growing indigenous SSN program, to offer Australia an alternative partnership.
The AUKUS agreement, announced in 2021, was envisioned as a key counter to China's growing influence in the Indo-Pacific. However, the US Congressional report suggests that instead of selling three to five Virginia-class SSNs to Australia as originally planned, these submarines might be retained by the US Navy and merely operated from Australian ports. This alternative would significantly curtail Australia's sovereign submarine capabilities and raise concerns about its strategic autonomy.
Adding to the complexity, the report proposes that Australian funds initially earmarked for submarine procurement could be diverted towards other defence systems like missiles, drones, and bombers. This shift in focus could indicate a re-evaluation of the original AUKUS objectives and raises questions about the long-term viability of the agreement.
Amidst this uncertainty, India, with its established and expanding SSN program, has emerged as a potential partner for Australia. India's first indigenously-built nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, INS Arihant, entered service in 2016, and the country is actively developing a fleet of nuclear-powered attack submarines.
An India-Australia SSN collaboration offers several advantages. It would allow for technology sharing and indigenous development, fostering Australian expertise and reducing reliance on external powers. This partnership would also ensure Australia retains control over its submarines, unlike the revised AUKUS proposal. Furthermore, collaborating with India could prove more cost-effective and offer greater flexibility in tailoring submarines to Australia's specific needs.
Strengthening defence ties between India and Australia would also have broader implications for the Indo-Pacific security framework. Both nations share a commitment to maintaining free and open maritime routes in the region and face similar challenges from China's growing assertiveness.
However, an India-Australia partnership is not without challenges. Australia currently lacks the expertise and infrastructure required for nuclear submarine operations. A significant commitment to technology transfer, training, and infrastructure development would be necessary. Additionally, such a move could potentially strain Australia's existing relationships with the US and the UK.
Despite these challenges, the potential benefits of an India-Australia SSN collaboration are significant. As the AUKUS deal faces increasing uncertainty, this alternative partnership presents a compelling opportunity for both nations to enhance their naval capabilities and strengthen their strategic autonomy in the Indo-Pacific.
