“This agreement will set off a nuclear race in the region, further disincentivizing Iran from limiting its own program. It has the potential to greatly destabilize the region and undermines long-standing non-proliferation standards.” – Democratic Senator Chris Murphy and the Former Chairman of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on Near East, South Asia, Central Asia and Counterterrorism during Biden era; in response to the U.S.-Saudi Arabia Civil Nuclear Deal in his post on X.
The United States and Saudi Arabia have just signed a landmark 30-year civilian nuclear cooperation agreement (known as a "123 agreement") along with a bilateral safeguards agreement. Signed by U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, the multibillion-dollar deal establishes the legal framework for American companies to develop Saudi Arabia's nuclear energy infrastructure.
The latest agreement, however, does not require Saudi Arabia to adopt the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) Additional Protocol, which grants inspectors intrusive, snap-inspection powers; which had been duly applied even to Iran, as a guardrail against its nuclear enrichment activities but still Trump was not convinced and backed out of the JCPOA signed in 2015.
The deal occurs amidst deep friction, with critics arguing that granting Riyadh enrichment pathways disincentivizes Iran from curbing its own nuclear program given that the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman previously vowed that Saudi Arabia would develop nuclear weapons if Iran acquired them.
Despite its strong alliance with the U.S., Israel has consistently opposed any Saudi civil nuclear program. Israeli security officials fear that civilian infrastructure could eventually be converted to match or threaten Israel's unacknowledged nuclear monopoly in the region. The reaction from Netanyahu and Israel, thus, is only likely to be retaliatory in nature as Mossad will have another regional rival as well as potential nuclear program as target on its ever extending watchlist going forward.
Overall, a transactional & mercantile Trump views it from a commercial interests lens as well as angle and as an integral part & extension of his recent efforts domestically to give a boost to the domestic U.S. nuclear energy industrial base & may sell it like that at home.
Further, In another of his typical & characteristic U-Turns & TACO moments, Trump has again backtracked by bypassing the local enrichment part completely from deal & adding the pre-condition of normalisation of Saudi-Israel diplomatic relations, like Biden earlier.
However, it will still invariably & inevitably lead to a tectonic shift in the highly volatile Middle East region’s overall balance of power as well as regional strategic calculus and will further complicate the Nuclear Gordian Knot of nuclear weapons & proliferation globally...
