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In a landmark development for national security, the Ministry of Defence is on the verge of finalising a historic ₹3.25 lakh crore (approximately $36 billion) contract to procure 114 Rafale fighter jets.
This acquisition, concluding the long-awaited Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) programme, represents one of the globe's most significant defence procurements in recent history.
While the deal aims to arrest the dwindling squadron numbers of the Indian Air Force (IAF) and bolster its combat edge, it comes amidst a rapidly shifting balance of power in the region.
With the addition of these 114 jets to the 36 already in service, India’s Rafale fleet will swell to roughly 150 aircraft. However, defence analysts are now grappling with a critical question: will this formidable fleet be enough to counter the relentless expansion of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF)?
The Dragon's Unprecedented Expansion
The strategic landscape has transformed radically since India first conceptualised the MRFA programme. China has accelerated its military aviation production to levels previously unseen in peacetime history.According to defence intelligence estimates, the PLAAF’s expansion in 2025 was nothing short of staggering. In that single year, China is believed to have inducted nearly 300 new fighter aircraft.
This includes approximately 120 units of the J-20 ‘Mighty Dragon’ heavy stealth fighter, comprising both the J-20A single-seat variant and the advanced J-20S twin-seat version.
The twin-seat version is specifically optimised for complex modern warfare, including controlling drone swarms ("loyal wingmen") and coordinating electronic warfare.
Furthermore, the PLAAF added between 100 and 170 non-stealth platforms in 2025 alone. These include the potent J-16 multirole fighter (and its electronic attack variant, the J-16D), carrier-borne J-15 derivatives, and the single-engine J-10C.
The production rate of the J-20 alone underscores the disparity. From a fleet of roughly 150 in late 2022, numbers surged to over 200 by late 2023. With production lines now stabilised at over 120 stealth jets annually, the J-20 programme has become the world’s fastest-growing fifth-generation fighter fleet.
The Quality vs. Quantity Equation
Can a fleet of 150 Rafales realistically deter such a massive force? The answer requires looking beyond mere headcounts to operational capabilities.The Rafale is widely considered the world's premier 4.5-generation fighter. It brings a "qualitative edge" that few adversaries can match.
Its combat-proven pedigree, combined with the RBE2 Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar and the SPECTRA electronic warfare suite, allows it to operate deep inside contested airspace.
When armed with the Meteor beyond-visual-range air-to-air missile and the SCALP deep-strike cruise missile, the Rafale can outrange and outgun most fourth-generation adversaries, including China’s J-10C and J-16.
However, the J-20 poses a unique challenge. As a fifth-generation platform, it relies on stealth, low observability, and sensor fusion to engage targets before being detected.
In a potential conflict, the PLAAF would likely utilise the J-20 not for "dogfights," but as a sniper within a "system-of-systems"—leveraging data from satellites, airborne early warning (AEW) aircraft, and ground radars to dismantle opposing air defences.
Numerically, the IAF will remain at a disadvantage, particularly in the Western Theatre Command facing India, where China has upgraded airbases and logistics networks to surge hundreds of fighters rapidly.
A Layered Strategy: Bridging the Gap
Recognising that numbers alone cannot be matched, Indian planners are adopting a layered defence strategy. The acquisition of 114 Rafales is not a standalone solution but a critical bridge.The Rafale fleet is intended to serve as the "spearhead" of the IAF, securing air dominance while India’s indigenous programmes mature.
The deal buys vital time for the development of the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA)—India’s own fifth-generation stealth fighter, expected to enter service in the next decade.
Moreover, the IAF is focusing on integration. The combat potential of the Rafale will be multiplied by its interoperability with other indigenous platforms like the Tejas Mk1A and the future Tejas Mk2.
When networked with India’s S-400 air defence systems and space-based surveillance assets, the Rafale becomes part of a cohesive defensive net that is far harder to penetrate than aircraft numbers suggest.
Conclusion
While 114 new Rafales will not equal China’s annual production in pure arithmetic terms, their strategic value is immense. They restore the IAF’s offensive punch and ensure a credible deterrence posture.By securing a decisive technological advantage over non-stealth Chinese fleets and maintaining the ability to inflict unacceptable damage in retaliation, the Rafale deal ensures the skies remain contested—buying India the necessary time to field its own next-generation capabilities.
The Rafale is not just a fighter jet; for India, it is the linchpin of a strategy designed to hold the line until the indigenous aerospace ecosystem is ready to take the lead.
