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The Indian Air Force (IAF) is currently navigating a significant operational challenge as its fighter squadron strength has fallen to 31, well below the officially sanctioned level of 42.
This reduction comes at a time of heightened security concerns in the region, particularly from China and Pakistan, making the need for robust air power more critical than ever.
To address this shortfall, a comprehensive, multi-pronged strategy is under consideration, which proposes a blend of foreign acquisitions and indigenous manufacturing.
This plan involves procuring additional Dassault Rafale jets, acquiring Russia’s Su-57 stealth fighters, accelerating the production of the home-grown Tejas Light Combat Aircraft (LCA), and fast-tracking the development of the futuristic Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA).
This proposed combination of aircraft aims to provide an effective interim solution to rebuild the IAF’s combat fleet while simultaneously advancing India's long-term goal of self-reliance in defence manufacturing.
A potential deal for 114 Rafale jets under the Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) tender, estimated to be worth around $22 billion, is reportedly a key part of these discussions, underscoring the urgency to enhance the nation's aerial capabilities.
A Four-Pillar Modernisation Strategy
The IAF's fleet is shrinking due to the progressive retirement of older aircraft, such as the MiG-21s, and slower-than-expected timelines for indigenous replacements.To counter this, a balanced approach combining internationally proven platforms with domestic projects is being pursued. The strategy is built on four main pillars:
- Additional Rafale Jets with 'Make in India': The plan includes acquiring three to five more squadrons of Rafale fighters (54 to 90 aircraft). This would expand the current fleet of 36 Rafales, which are already operational at airbases in Ambala and Hasimara. A major advantage of this approach is the utilisation of existing maintenance and training infrastructure, which would significantly reduce setup costs. A key condition of the proposed deal is a 'Make in India' component, with over 60% indigenous content, ensuring that Dassault Aviation partners with Indian companies for local manufacturing.
- Accelerating Tejas LCA Production: The indigenous Tejas programme is central to replenishing the IAF's squadron numbers. A total of 220 Tejas Mk1A aircraft are on order from Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) following multiple approvals, including one for 97 additional jets in late 2023. However, with current production rates at around 8-10 aircraft per year, a significant ramp-up involving the private sector is needed to meet the goal of fielding new squadrons by 2030.
- Launching the AMCA Stealth Fighter Programme: Representing India's ambition for a self-reliant future, the AMCA is a fifth-generation stealth aircraft designed to be the cornerstone of the IAF in the coming decades. The programme received formal approval from the Cabinet Committee on Security in March 2024, with the first prototype expected around 2032. Critical to its success is the ongoing collaboration with French engine manufacturer Safran to co-develop a new, powerful jet engine in India.
- Procuring Su-57 Fighters as a Stopgap: To introduce fifth-generation capabilities sooner, the acquisition of two squadrons (36-48 aircraft) of Russia's Su-57 stealth fighter is being considered. While its stealth features are a subject of international debate, the Su-57 offers advanced capabilities like supercruise (sustained supersonic flight) and supermaneuverability. Its design commonality with the Su-30MKI, which forms the backbone of the IAF fleet, would simplify pilot training and maintenance logistics.
The Strategic Logic and Industrial Benefits
This multi-faceted approach is guided by clear strategic, operational, and industrial goals.Expanding the Rafale fleet is cost-effective as it builds on established infrastructure, saving billions compared to introducing an entirely new aircraft type. The Rafale's proven combat record and advanced electronic warfare systems provide a reliable counter to modern threats in the region.
Furthermore, this strategy strongly aligns with the 'Make in India' initiative. The collaboration with France on both the Rafale and the AMCA's engine is expected to provide major technological benefits, creating a robust ecosystem for India's Micro, Small & Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) in the defence sector.
Technologies absorbed from the Rafale and Su-57 programmes, such as AESA radars, stealth materials, and thrust-vectoring controls, could also accelerate the development of the AMCA.
From a geopolitical standpoint, sourcing aircraft from diverse partners like France and Russia, while simultaneously boosting indigenous production, enhances India’s strategic autonomy. This prevents over-reliance on a single supplier and provides flexibility in a complex global political landscape.
Challenges and The Path Forward
Despite its potential, this ambitious plan faces several challenges.The high cost of modern fighter jets, particularly the Rafale, will place considerable strain on the defence budget, which must also support the development of the AMCA and the production of the Tejas.
Execution also remains a significant hurdle. HAL must overcome existing production bottlenecks to deliver the Tejas LCA on schedule.
For the Su-57, Russia’s ongoing conflict in Ukraine has raised concerns about its ability to maintain a reliable supply chain.
Finally, integrating and maintaining four distinct types of advanced fighter jets will create complex logistical and training demands that the IAF will need to manage effectively.
While other aircraft like the American F-35 were considered, issues such as high lifecycle costs and strict export controls make them less suitable for India’s immediate requirements.
The proposed mix of Rafale, Su-57, Tejas, and AMCA, though complex, is seen as the most pragmatic path to rebuilding the IAF's strength and ensuring India's air dominance for decades to come.
