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Strategic experts in Pakistan are expressing growing concern over the rapid expansion of India’s nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) programme.
In a recent analysis published in The Diplomat, Pakistani strategic commentators Usman Haider and Abdul Moiz Khan warn that India's advancing sea-based nuclear capabilities are fundamentally shifting the security balance in South Asia, posing severe challenges to Islamabad's traditional nuclear strategy.
According to the analysts, India’s maritime nuclear force has transformed from a mere symbolic component of its military into a robust system designed for continuous at-sea deterrence (CASD).
The authors project that by the end of 2027, the Indian Navy will operate four Arihant-class SSBNs, granting New Delhi the ability to keep at least one nuclear-armed submarine on patrol at all times.
Maintaining an SSBN continuously underwater provides a massive boost to the survivability of India’s nuclear weapons.
Unlike static land-based silos or visible bomber aircraft, a submerged SSBN is notoriously difficult to locate and destroy. This ensures that India retains a guaranteed second-strike capability to retaliate following a hypothetical first strike against its land forces.
The Pakistani analysts argue this resilience drastically complicates their nation's strategic planning.
Open-source records confirm the steady progression of India’s undersea deterrent over the past decade.
The lead vessel, INS Arihant, was commissioned in 2016 and primarily carries K-15 missiles with a range of 750 km.
In August 2024, India bolstered its fleet by commissioning the second submarine, INS Arighaat, which features significant technological upgrades and the capability to launch longer-range weapons.
Furthermore, India has launched two larger, stretched variants—INS Aridhaman and a fourth submarine currently designated S4*—which displace roughly 7,000 tonnes.
These newer vessels are designed to primarily field the K-4 Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile (SLBM), which boasts a formidable range of 3,500 km, allowing India to strike targets from much safer distances while remaining undetected.
Haider and Khan note that this expansion is not merely about adding more vessels, but reflects New Delhi’s determination to build a mature and highly survivable nuclear posture.
By shifting strategic assets to the ocean depths, India reduces the vulnerability of its nuclear triad during periods of intense border stand-offs or regional crises.
The analysis also highlights a growing strategic gap for Pakistan. Historically, Islamabad's nuclear deterrence has leaned heavily on land-based ballistic missiles and air-dropped weapons.
Its maritime deterrence remains largely reliant on conventionally powered submarines firing cruise missiles, rather than dedicated nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines.
The authors warn that India’s growing SSBN dominance will inevitably pressure Pakistan to heavily invest in its own naval nuclear capabilities to restore parity in the coming years.
Globally, SSBNs are considered the ultimate insurance policy in a nuclear triad due to their stealth and endurance. Leading military powers—such as the United States, Russia, China, France, and the United Kingdom—rely on continuous SSBN patrols as the bedrock of their strategic defence.
India’s push for indigenous nuclear submarines is a critical pillar of a much larger naval modernisation campaign. Beyond the current Arihant-class vessels, India is in the early phases of developing much larger S5-class SSBNs.
Additionally, to safeguard these strategic assets and monitor the wider Indo-Pacific, the Indian government approved the construction of two indigenous nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs)—hunter-killer vessels meant for conventional warfare—in late 2024.
Ultimately, the discussion underscores that Pakistan no longer views India’s submarine construction as routine naval procurement. Instead, it is recognised as a pivotal development that greatly amplifies India’s sea-based deterrent and permanently alters the regional nuclear dynamics in South Asia.
