If Rafale Wins MRFA Tender, IAF May Opt for 90 Jets to Fulfill Original MMRCA Goal of 126

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The Indian Air Force (IAF) may be looking to acquire 90 additional Rafale fighter jets if Dassault Aviation’s entry emerges victorious in the ongoing Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) competition.

This revelation comes from a senior IAF official, who indicated that such a move would effectively fulfill the original intent of the Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) program, which sought 126 aircraft to address a critical capability gap.

The IAF currently operates 36 Rafale jets, acquired through a government-to-government deal with France in 2016. These aircraft form two squadrons within the IAF. Adding 90 more would bring the total to 126, a figure that has been a long-standing objective since the Kargil War.

The MMRCA program, initiated to bridge the gap between existing fourth-generation fighters and future fifth-generation aircraft, was ultimately scrapped after protracted negotiations. The MRFA tender represents a renewed effort to acquire a modern multi-role fighter for the IAF.

While the MRFA tender has attracted interest from global manufacturers like Boeing (F-15EX and F/A-18 Super Hornet), Lockheed Martin (F-21), Saab (Gripen E), and Eurofighter (Typhoon), the Rafale’s existing presence in the IAF gives it a distinct advantage. Familiarity with the platform, coupled with established logistical and training frameworks, could streamline the procurement and operationalization of additional Rafales.

Furthermore, Dassault Aviation already has a production line dedicated to Indian-spec Rafales, which could be leveraged for a follow-on order. This could potentially reduce costs and lead times compared to establishing new manufacturing facilities for a different aircraft type.

However, the final decision will depend on various factors, including cost, technology transfer, and indigenous production opportunities. The IAF will carefully evaluate all bids before making a selection.
 
Just sit down with opposition leaders, explain and for once and all order rafales which iaf wants in numbers even it costs a little bit. Tell dassault to make a jv with an Indian company and just buy this plane.
 
Considering that MRFA is a necessity to maintain squadron numbers, that expenditure, however painful, is necessary.
Agree, but can any of the prime suppliers start delivery of MRFA (some flyby and rest produced in India) by 2028-2030 and complete before 2035, say if we finalise by late 2025 (highly unlikely with an open tender process); is an important question/ key consideration?
I am sure GOI, MOD, and IAF will only consider credible, contractual and verifiable past delivery, as compared to intent and claims or social media posts!
 
Agree, but can any of the prime suppliers start delivery of MRFA (some flyby and rest produced in India) by 2028-2030 and complete before 2035, say if we finalise by late 2025 (highly unlikely with an open tender process); is an important question/ key consideration?
I am sure GOI, MOD, and IAF will only consider credible, contractual and verifiable past delivery, as compared to intent and claims or social media posts!
Unlikely, Sir. If we sign a contract by the end of 2025, we may see a few deliveries by 2030, with the entire order being completed in 2036-38. That is just how the ball roles. Of course, if you shrink the order to 90 jets, 2035 is possible, assuming we actually sign the contract in the next 13.5 or so months.
 
I think like they ended the MMRCA circus by ordering 2 sqdns of Rafales, IAF should end this MRFA circus by ordering 1 or 2 sqdns more as a face saver and then start a new 5th/6th/7thGFA circus!
 
Rafale has huge order backlog and made in India means it will be more costlier. It will be senseless to waste big amount and time.
 
Unlikely, Sir. If we sign a contract by the end of 2025, we may see a few deliveries by 2030, with the entire order being completed in 2036-38. That is just how the ball roles. Of course, if you shrink the order to 90 jets, 2035 is possible, assuming we actually sign the contract in the next 13.5 or so months.
Scary, given potential exposure of non-stealth jets in contested environments which are highly likely after 2030!
 
And what advantage we will get by not purchasing 24 more jets or proposed 114 jets? We have already decreased the number from 126 to 114. The utter circus is going on among babus in IAF and Ministry. They don't know what they are talking about and why? No reasonable argument but sheer incapability. It's just matching number to number while ignoring requirement of current fleet altogether.
 
Development agency should develop twin engine rafale like aircraft rather single engine tejas MK2.all the parameters of twin engine fighter is greater then single engine
 
With Trump as POTUS, equation will change.
India may get F-35, even a squadron of F-35 can help breach Chinese defences, SU 30 MKI can enter as Missile Trucks and wreak havoc...
Remember- we don't have any intention to occupy any part of China, our offensive will only be in self-defence.
Rest of money can be poured for LCA Mk II, TEDBF, AMCA, GHATAK UCAV, Stealth detecting Radars etc....
 
Unlikely, Sir. If we sign a contract by the end of 2025, we may see a few deliveries by 2030, with the entire order being completed in 2036-38. That is just how the ball roles. Of course, if you shrink the order to 90 jets, 2035 is possible, assuming we actually sign the contract in the next 13.5 or so months.
I would disagree with that bro. LM is making about 24 F16 annually now (though that might reflect in the next year fully) and have a capacity of 48 (though ramping up to that might be difficult). They have confirmed orders will 2028, that too assuming 24 planes only.

Dassault has gone up in o 2 jets monthly, and is planning to go to 3. They need about 22 planes annually to meet their current requirements. Considering that they have gone to 3 jets per month at their component level already, I think it’s a fair assumption that they will reach 36 per month at least in the next 4 years (they plan to get there next year itself, and that itself is after a delay of a few months). Their current schedule is booked till 2033 (22 jets annually). So they can also deliver by 2035.

I am sure Boeing can do it as well with F18.

These are numbers for off the shelf purchases or for initial lot to be delivered off the shelf. Of course, if local manufacturing happens, then the rate will be decided by IAF but most likely production can start in 5 years and delivery rates can cross 16 annually. No bets on HAL though.
 
As long as govt isn't serious nothing will happen. I sense another emergency procurement for face saving measures. This time may be 54-60 Rafaels. It's better that they take help from western firms to somehow accelerate their ongoing mk2 and AMCA programs.
 
Even this govt (although better than previous UPA regime) has failed (delayed too much) in procurement of 114 jets in time. Ideally order should have been placed by 2022. Still there seems no hope of placing the order in near future. There is an old saying that a bad decision is better than no decision. However this govt doesn't seem to follow this for procurement of 114 fighters for IAF.
 
Even this govt (although better than previous UPA regime) has failed (delayed too much) in procurement of 114 jets in time. Ideally order should have been placed by 2022. Still there seems no hope of placing the order in near future. There is an old saying that a bad decision is better than no decision. However this govt doesn't seem to follow this for procurement of 114 fighters for IAF.
90 nos. of Rafale F4.2 jets will costs $36 Billions usd total deal package in reality....
 
In the current circumference IAF should consider Gripen E, because SAAB is the only vender ready to give 100% TOT, fitting Indian made weapons and ready to give 24 aircraft per year. And Both Tejas Mk II and Gripen E will use F414 engines. It's a very good choice i think.
 
In the current circumference IAF should consider Gripen E, because SAAB is the only vender ready to give 100% TOT, fitting Indian made weapons and ready to give 24 aircraft per year. And Both Tejas Mk II and Gripen E will use F414 engines. It's a very good choice i think.
Correct.. even if IAF, with divine intervention, inks any agreement today, no plane will be available before Yr.2030-35, except Gripen... in one article today read that even Eurofighter has almost finalized deals which will keep their book filled till 2035...
 
Correct.. even if IAF, with divine intervention, inks any agreement today, no plane will be available before Yr.2030-35, except Gripen... in one article today read that even Eurofighter has almost finalized deals which will keep their book filled till 2035...
In my oppinion Gripen E is the best choice to fill the fighter fleet very rapidly. Or talk with korean's KF 21, may be they will help us.
 
IAF should go for NGAD or Tempest.
NGAD is a program with an uncertain future as it is. It also isn't open for joining.

As for the Tempest, the government doesn't want to join for some reason. Regardless, even if we did join, the Tempest would only help with a reduction in MRFA. It wouldn't be a complete replacement, as in-service jets are not expected until the early 2040s.
 
With Trump as POTUS, equation will change.
India may get F-35, even a squadron of F-35 can help breach Chinese defences, SU 30 MKI can enter as Missile Trucks and wreak havoc...
Remember- we don't have any intention to occupy any part of China, our offensive will only be in self-defence.
Rest of money can be poured for LCA Mk II, TEDBF, AMCA, GHATAK UCAV, Stealth detecting Radars etc....
That's... not how this works. A single squadron of something like the F-35 isn't going to be sufficient enough to guarantee a large safety margin for the Su-30MKI.

Also, considering that the US didn't offer F-35s to India during Trump's first term, it is equally unlikely that will happen now.
 
I would disagree with that bro. LM is making about 24 F16 annually now (though that might reflect in the next year fully) and have a capacity of 48 (though ramping up to that might be difficult). They have confirmed orders will 2028, that too assuming 24 planes only.

Dassault has gone up in o 2 jets monthly, and is planning to go to 3. They need about 22 planes annually to meet their current requirements. Considering that they have gone to 3 jets per month at their component level already, I think it’s a fair assumption that they will reach 36 per month at least in the next 4 years (they plan to get there next year itself, and that itself is after a delay of a few months). Their current schedule is booked till 2033 (22 jets annually). So they can also deliver by 2035.

I am sure Boeing can do it as well with F18.

These are numbers for off the shelf purchases or for initial lot to be delivered off the shelf. Of course, if local manufacturing happens, then the rate will be decided by IAF but most likely production can start in 5 years and delivery rates can cross 16 annually. No bets on HAL though.
Sir, even at 24 jets a year, LM has around 7.5 years of orders left (188 jets in total, plus any more orders that may get finalised). However, gauging by LM's increased orders for the modernisation kits to Block 70/72 standard, that 24 figure may get impacted.

Coming to the Rafale, my impression is that Dassault can manage 20-ish jets this year, and gradually scale up to 30 in the next two or so years. You are more knowledgeable on that than me, so please correct me if I am wrong.

I am pretty certain the F-18 is out now, since the long-lead item production lines are now being diverted to other projects.

My estimate too was with a small number (say, one squadron's worth) in fly-away condition, with the rest being manufactured / assembled in India. Of course, HAL, being HAL, will do their best to not deliver.
 
Even this govt (although better than previous UPA regime) has failed (delayed too much) in procurement of 114 jets in time. Ideally order should have been placed by 2022. Still there seems no hope of placing the order in near future. There is an old saying that a bad decision is better than no decision. However this govt doesn't seem to follow this for procurement of 114 fighters for IAF.
Delay by government? Think it is still in IAF court.
 
Delay by government? Think it is still in IAF court.
Not at all. Even if assuming that you are correct than also responsibility for delay lies on govt. Why govt couldn't push IAF for faster decision as was the case of 36 rafale procurement. As full credit goes to govt for fastest possible decision with respect to 36 rafale procurement, discredit also should go to govt for lethargic attitude in 114 procurement.
 

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